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Spring Banter


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah agreed.  I like that term, flex point over critical point.  At some point the temps would overwhelm it but like you said, that’s a long way off in New England, especially NNE.  

I see the bigger problem being the huge melt offs that seem to be bigger and more frequent.  Notice I said seem, I don’t have any hard data close at hand to prove or disprove that thought. Also on the anecdotal level, deep cold seems less common. And yes, I know we still get some good cold from time to time but -30s don’t happen much anymore. Growing up, it wasn’t uncommon for Canaan, VT to be the coldest spot in the country at least a few times each winter. It may be that there isn’t an observer there anymore or the location has changed but it doesn’t feel the same. 

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I love when I read, "If you can't afford to pay people in unskilled jobs a livable wage, you can't afford to be in business."

That seems to be the rallying cry of some out there. It's a really dumb sentiment. When a business folds, everyone is let go and it's a net loss for the community.

The other side of the coin that young people are not taking the jobs and desperate businesses are paying more to hire older folks is that those entry level jobs now require degrees and/or years of experience. This is something else the younger crowd complains about a lot, but they helped create the issue.

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6 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

None of it makes sense any more. The CDC says fully vaccinated people can meet together indoors with no mask. Yet me and my 4 reports, who are all fully vaccinated, can’t have a staff meeting in a conference room unmasked. 

@UMB WX will hit my post with a weenie emoji, but a lot of this lurched the wrong way when Biden came into office. He pushed the CDC and other Federal agencies so far in the other direction of mandating masks at all times in all places that it will take a long while to dig back out due to gov't inertia. It had zero to do with the science; it was all posturing and "keeping campaign promises." He also pressured states to do the same things.

Like I have said, I work on a Federal installation. Before Inauguration Day, with no vaccine, you could be outside socially-distanced without a mask or be in your office with no mask.

Once Biden came into office, the rules were suddenly tightened and now you need a mask at all times everywhere even if no one is within 100 feet of you. Signs went up all over post overnight and guards are enforcing the rules. Food trucks that had been operating for months were also run out of the area.

That isn't "following the science" at all.

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

@UMB WX will hit my post with a weenie emoji, but a lot of this lurched the wrong way when Biden came into office. He pushed the CDC and other Federal agencies so far in the other direction of mandating masks at all times in all places that it will take a long while to dig back out due to gov't inertia. It had zero to do with the science; it was all posturing and "keeping campaign promises." He also pressured states to do the same things.

Like I have said, I work on a Federal installation. Before Inauguration Day, with no vaccine, you could be outside socially-distanced without a mask or be in your office with no mask.

Once Biden came into office, the rules were suddenly tightened and now you need a mask at all times everywhere even if no one is within 100 feet of you. Signs went up all over post overnight and guards are enforcing the rules. Food trucks that had been operating for months were also run out of the area.

That isn't "following the science" at all.

Once there’s a federal reg, it’s hard to get rid of. See bare feet in the airport because of one idiot trying to light his shoe on fire 20 years ago.

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23 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I love when I read, "If you can't afford to pay people in unskilled jobs a livable wage, you can't afford to be in business."

That seems to be the rallying cry of some out there. It's a really dumb sentiment. When a business folds, everyone is let go and it's a net loss for the community.

The other side of the coin that young people are not taking the jobs and desperate businesses are paying more to hire older folks is that those entry level jobs now require degrees and/or years of experience. This is something else the younger crowd complains about a lot, but they helped create the issue.

If that's towards me, and it must be (?), then I think I must be not saying it correctly.  Is that what people read from my posts?

I'm not having a philosophical discussion.  I'm not trying to pass judgment or an opinion on the situation.  My wife and I both lead a large staff trying to satisfy high-end income earners.  It is rough when you don't have the staff to do that.  I sure as hell don't own a business, but I bet it would suck to own a business with some demand and not be able to staff it.  What's the answer there?  How do you make it appealing for people to work for you so you can meet demand?  Shame them?  Pay them, offer them affordable housing, offer benefits?  Some might say it's babying those employees.  But it's a reality in parts of the service industry if you want to operate tomorrow, and next month, or the year after that.  Revenue won't come if the guest experience sucks.

Skilled or unskilled, doesn't matter.  You need to get people to work for you who obviously find some barrier... what do you do?

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Just now, powderfreak said:

If that's towards me, and it must be (?), then I think I must be not saying it correctly.  Is that what people read from my posts?

I'm not having a philosophical discussion.  I'm not trying to pass judgment or an opinion on the situation.  My wife and I both lead a large staff trying to satisfy high-end income earners.  It is rough when you don't have the staff to do that.  I sure as hell don't own a business but I bet it would suck to own a business in demand and not be able to staff it.  What's the answer there?  How do you make it appealing for people to work for you so you can meet demand?  Shame them?  Pay them, offer benefits?

Skilled or unskilled, doesn't matter.  You need to get people to work who don't want to work for you... what do you do?

We might be witnessing the biggest labor reorganization in history. All by way of ‘closed for the day’ signs in fast food restaurant windows. The ramifications will be fascinating to watch.

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14 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

And the Red Sox are going down in Balmer.

Bats just haven’t gotten it going tonight.  That double bobble by Xander was a routine fly in traditional positioning... but the shift had everyone vacating the left side of the infield.

Sucks, but I keep telling myself they took 3 out of 4... hard to pull off the 4 game sweep

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Also, I’ll say this too, clamoring for everyone to get the vaccine to get back to normal, and then the best you can do as far as updated guidance is to tell people who can adequately distance outside that they don’t need masks, some of the time. That is a horrendous message to send to people on the fence about getting it.

Exactly, up the risk / reward.

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If that's towards me, and it must be (?), then I think I must be not saying it correctly.  Is that what people read from my posts?

I'm not having a philosophical discussion.  I'm not trying to pass judgment or an opinion on the situation.  My wife and I both lead a large staff trying to satisfy high-end income earners.  It is rough when you don't have the staff to do that.  I sure as hell don't own a business, but I bet it would suck to own a business with some demand and not be able to staff it.  What's the answer there?  How do you make it appealing for people to work for you so you can meet demand?  Shame them?  Pay them, offer them affordable housing, offer benefits?  Some might say it's babying those employees.  But it's a reality in parts of the service industry if you want to operate tomorrow, and next month, or the year after that.  Revenue won't come if the guest experience sucks.

Skilled or unskilled, doesn't matter.  You need to get people to work for you who obviously find some barrier... what do you do?

That wasn't directed at you, it's just something I have been seeing some people online say when discussing why min wage needs to be 25/hr. 

I don't really have an answer for this. It will need to be some combo of taxation and UBI. I just think people are still fooling themselves that we can get this all back to normal via policy. I think we have crossed a threshold for society. The good jobs are not coming back.

There are other long term systemic issues that contributed to us getting here, including women entering the workforce (which caused a glut of cheap unskilled labor -- lowering wages), mass immigration of unskilled labor (same as prior), bad tax policy, bad trade policy, bad social policy (family units destroyed, everyone goes to college and delays entering the workforce until they have racked up huge debt, badmouthing trade schools), welfare policy, crime, white flight to the suburbs, among other things. Those topics are all not good for this subforum so I will leave it at that. LOL

 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Bats just haven’t gotten it going tonight.  That double bobble by Xander was a routine fly in traditional positioning... but the shift had everyone vacating the left side of the infield.

Yea, and if Devers hadn’t double clutched the throw to third I think he would have been out. 

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26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

@UMB WX will hit my post with a weenie emoji, but a lot of this lurched the wrong way when Biden came into office. He pushed the CDC and other Federal agencies so far in the other direction of mandating masks at all times in all places that it will take a long while to dig back out due to gov't inertia. It had zero to do with the science; it was all posturing and "keeping campaign promises." He also pressured states to do the same things.

Like I have said, I work on a Federal installation. Before Inauguration Day, with no vaccine, you could be outside socially-distanced without a mask or be in your office with no mask.

Once Biden came into office, the rules were suddenly tightened and now you need a mask at all times everywhere even if no one is within 100 feet of you. Signs went up all over post overnight and guards are enforcing the rules. Food trucks that had been operating for months were also run out of the area.

That isn't "following the science" at all.

 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The hand is getting forced here.  Certainly much different than other economies but places are being squeezed now to pay like $30-40k/yr for non-skilled service starter jobs.  They literally can’t operate without raising wages significantly.  Pretty soon you’ll be able to answer phones at a hotel switchboard for the same wage as a teacher, if you can’t already.

Heh ... reminds me of that age old truism about everyone can’t be rich. 

the problem is a form of inflation .. Not so much printing mire money, just the valuation trickery - which may be inevitable eventually as any capitalism ages and unavoidable - the intention of profit doesn’t really ever ceiling. It’s inevitably always increasing, dependable over valuing everything given time and speculation’s conversions into appreciation 

Eventually ... eggs and toast get too difficult ... forget menial savings .. quality of life declines spread out over the ballast population, which now has an advocate like never before for their plights in the same vein as  ‘no child left behind’ etc etc  But wage increases to even the game - even if its proportionately laughable and not “evening” jack squat. It’s not big corporation that’s footing the bill - it’s mid size down to start ups ...  

pure capitalism eats its self inevitably but the expose’ is a wildcard - people May one day stop blaming government ...  

Might be an interesting watershed era if/when that happens 

 

 

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TSLA down another 6% already today

TSLA can fall to 400 and nobody can say there valuation is cheap there . FAANG stocks also going on sale , GOOG, AMZN, FB  . Those are stocks to own for generations , have reasonable valuations and dips are buying opps. APPL is going to fall decent as well .

Data shows Hedge funds were biggest net sellers of stocks for 3 straight weeks (and saw biggest outflows since 2008, institutions were net sellers for several straight weeks, and good ole retail was there to buy the dip in April . This time I don’t see enough volume from buyers (sell in May and go away ) for a snap back . Thou who knows what goes on .

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9 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

stocks shakey today and tonite 

ARKK tanking , TSLA looks to be taking it on chin

 

Cathie continues to dump her higher quality liquid stocks like Apple to double down on her illiquid shitcos. Things become very interesting if outflows continue. Feeling better and better about those ARKK puts I picked up a few weeks ago.

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5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Cathie continues to dump her higher quality liquid stocks like Apple to double down on her illiquid shitcos. Things become very interesting if outflows continue. Feeling better and better about those ARKK puts I picked up a few weeks ago.

Worst case would be restricting withdrawals as ARKK could tailspin down As outflows accelerate 

Let’s see what hedge funds levered up and long (that were already silently bleeding ) go belly up if the market weakness continues 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Worst case would be restricting withdrawals as ARKK could tailspin down As outflows accelerate 

Let’s see what hedge funds levered up and long (that were already silently bleeding ) go belly up if the market weakness continues 

Given both the record long positioning and record margin debt in this market, things can turn ugly on a dime.

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