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March 2021 General Discussion


Hoosier
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Still have a few inches of snow in the backyard, with remaining drifts of 10" or so, but the front and side yard is mostly bare now.  The great glacier of 2021 has held quite admirably considering the past few weeks of warmth, and no measurable snow since way back on Feb 18th.  If not for the raging sleet storm in late Dec, and several freezing rain events this stuff would have been gone a week ago.

The snow has held our temps back compared to nearby areas just south, like MLI for example.  We hit 52 today which was the warmest so far of the season.  Looks like 60 tomorrow and mid 60s Mon-Wed.  MLI will prob tag 70 somewhere in the Mon-Wed stretch.

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16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

MLI should have their first 60 of the season today as well.  Prob mid 50s here as we melt the remaining snow.  

HRRR and RGEM both show 70 tomorrow for MLI.  That'll get the ol' birds cheepin' lol

HRRR even has mid-upper 60s here tomorrow... warmer than other guidance but I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it entirely.  Have seen many times when early season warmth overperforms, whether it is due to the lack of vegetation or whatever.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

HRRR even has mid-upper 60s here tomorrow... warmer than other guidance but I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it entirely.  Have seen many times when early season warmth overperforms, whether it is due to the lack of vegetation or whatever.

Yeah tomorrow looks pretty good.  West-southwest surface winds always do well here for overperforming temps.  Very dry surface conditions just sw where snow has been gone for awhile now.  Red flag warnings not too far away in northeast MO today.  

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HRRR even has mid-upper 60s here tomorrow... warmer than other guidance but I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it entirely.  Have seen many times when early season warmth overperforms, whether it is due to the lack of vegetation or whatever.

The HRRR has done very well since we flipped to the milder pattern. Has hit on just about every warmer day thus far around here.

 

So I’d say ride it...

 

 

.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


The HRRR has done very well since we flipped to the milder pattern. Has hit on just about every warmer day this far around here.

So I’d say ride it...


.

Good to know.  Haven't really been paying attention.

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The DVN radar is being shut off March 11th for "life extension" and could be down for a week.  Pretty stupid to schedule something like that in spring/summer/fall when severe is possible.  Best time would be in met winter even though it's service would be missed during a winter storm.  Still better than being out of commission during severe weather season. :facepalm:

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20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

HRRR even has mid-upper 60s here tomorrow... warmer than other guidance but I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it entirely.  Have seen many times when early season warmth overperforms, whether it is due to the lack of vegetation or whatever.

This is entirely accurate, for whatever reason. This may be anecdotal or empirical, but having lived nearly my entire life (aside from a few years out west) in either the Ohio Valley or Upper Midwest - yes, I consider Pittsburgh the Ohio Valley because it technically is - it seems like when we’re talking about the first time in a calendar year to hit a temperature milestone (50, 60, 70, 80), especially in a pattern flip from cold to warm, a large number of those have occurred on days when temperatures outperformed most to all forecasts and model guidance.

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From the LOT afd.... pretty unbelievable

Our stretch of above-normal temperatures
has also come with no precipitation, with the last instance of such
on February 28. In fact, never in our records has the first 8 days
of March featured no precipitation in Chicago! The same is not true
in Rockford as several years featured measurable precipitation on
the 1st of March.
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3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Could be some severe weather this week 

ACUS48 KWNS 080959
   SPC AC 080959

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021

   Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
   The medium-range models begin the Day 4 to 8 period in good
   agreement. Model solutions show southwest mid-level flow from the
   south-central U.S. to the Northeast. An upper-level low is forecast
   over southern California. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
   to advance southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid
   Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along
   parts of the front during the afternoon and evening. Although
   instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the front Thursday
   afternoon, strong deep-layer shear should be adequate for at least
   isolated severe storms. The severe threat should extend from
   northwest Texas northeastward across the Ozarks and into the lower
   Ohio Valley. Hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.

   On Friday, the models continue to be in good agreement. The
   solutions move the upper-level low into the Desert Southwest and
   have an upper-level ridge in the south-central states. The cold
   front is forecast to move slowly southward and may stall from the
   southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley during the
   day on Friday. Model forecasts suggest that thunderstorm development
   will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon and
   evening. The greatest potential for severe storms would be from
   Oklahoma eastward into Arkansas, where low-level moisture, deep
   layer shear and instability are forecast to be maximized.

   Although there is some spread among the GEFS members, on Saturday
   the deterministic solutions remain in relatively good agreement. The
   upper-level low is forecast to move into the Four Corners region as
   a mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of the
   approaching system, strong moisture advection is forecast in the
   southern Plains where a corridor of 60+ surface dewpoints appears
   likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of
   the southern Plains and Ozarks throughout the day. An increase in
   thunderstorm coverage may take place in the late afternoon and
   evening as instability maximizes across the region. Model forecasts
   show a potential for moderate instability, widespread large-scale
   ascent and strong deep-layer shear from the southern Plains eastward
   into the Ozarks. All severe threat hazards will be possible, but the
   magnitude and spatial extent of the severe threat will depend upon
   moisture return and the eastward timing of the system. 

   ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
   On Sunday and Monday, the upper-level low is forecast to move
   eastward across the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
   forecast to move quickly eastward from the Great Plains into the
   Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Severe thunderstorms will be possible
   along parts of the front both on Sunday and on Monday. At this time,
   models suggest that the greatest severe threat will be located in
   eastern parts of the southern Plains and in the Ozarks on Sunday.
   The severe threat should shift eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
   Valleys on Monday. However, uncertainty concerning the timing of the
   system is substantial at this extended range in the forecast period.

   ..Broyles.. 03/08/2021
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63 here so far, 67 at MLI.  Quite a few mid-upper level clouds co ck blocked our 70 potential, but still an exceedingly nice day.

Went out and picked up all the twigs and branches that fell off during the cold season.  Yard is pretty squishy from all the additional moisture from the melt.  Still have a remnant drift of about 6" deep across much of the backyard, but most areas are bare now.

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15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

63 here so far, 67 at MLI.  Quite a few mid-upper level clouds co ck blocked our 70 potential, but still an exceedingly nice day.

Went out and picked up all the twigs and branches that fell off during the cold season.  Yard is pretty squishy from all the additional moisture from the melt.  Still have a remnant drift of about 6" deep across much of the backyard, but most areas are bare now.

Glacier still holding strong or has the warmth took a toll on it?

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Been a while since I posted. Been real quiet on the weather front with rather mild temps at times, like today. Couple of cold snaps were mixed in there as well. Sloppy weather coming up in a couple days, though. Might see some acc snow.

Feb temp data out, so here is how we stand for our region in the scheme of things. Definitely one of the colder Feb's in the record.

Edit: Replaced chart with the one that should be here for our entire region, not just upper midwest.

 

Feb temp chart great lakes.gif

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