stormtracker

March Long Range Discussion

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29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Dude. You are in Raleigh. 

No shit I know that. This isnt Georgia though, We average 6-7" here

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19 minutes ago, Avdave said:

No shit I know that. This isnt Georgia though, We average 6-7" here

Yeah but I think our median is much lower.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Yeah but I think our median is much lower.

Probably but I dont know it off the top of my head

 

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14 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Probably but I dont know it off the top of my head

 

Its actually hard to find median data.

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4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The cold air will make its own storm.

March 18-21 ,1958 had a weak ass 1022 -1026 HP and managed 1-3 ' feet totals.  March will always be my favorite winter month for shear potential.  And my favorite all time storm occurred this month 1993 and my birthday is in March :D

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It's cold out. Too bad that storm to our south was a bit surpressed

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2 hours ago, Avdave said:

Probably but I dont know it off the top of my head

 

Here's what I found for Raleigh

image.thumb.png.eaf6b186268f4853a5a74b7f9809de80.png

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13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I do believe in that correlation. The last several super ninos (1973/1983/1998/2016) were all followed by multiple year hostile pacific patterns. But at the same time let’s not pretend the larger trend isn’t there either. The 99-02 period was worse then the comparable post nino 80s and 70s periods and the 17-21 period now was worst of all. And the frequency of sub 10” winters is increasing even independent of those post nino periods. So like I’ve said our recent problems are a combo of both. Both a shorter term hostile period coinciding with the continued degradation of our larger scale snow climo. There will still be peaks and wins but imo the valleys are going to be lower and more frequent. 

The degradation of snow climo is very much a real phenomenon, I have noticed it even in New England. I am as big of a weenie as anyone and love the snow but I can’t ignore the reality that it is more difficult to get snow and cold than it used to be. It seems like marginal patterns that would have worked even 10 years ago don’t work anymore. Global warming is very much a factor, and it is becoming even more of a factor in recent years as the warming of our planet accelerates. 

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A little late in the game but the next advertised 'good' look on the EPS is the period from around St Patty's day heading towards the Equinox.

1616004000-3mS1lpYg1pc.png

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10 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

March 18-21 ,1958 had a weak ass 1022 -1026 HP and managed 1-3 ' feet totals.  March will always be my favorite winter month for shear potential.  And my favorite all time storm occurred this month 1993 and my birthday is in March :D

I always use March '93 as the benchmark for my end of winter. After that, I'm in full spring mode.

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WB 6Z EPS is quiet through the end of next work week, it will be interesting to see if there is one last bout of wintry weather to track as we go into the last two weeks of March, but I will be cleaning out my garden beds this week as things finally dry out.

C55A66B3-5F34-4A62-927C-48ACF9732515.png

DC152737-FB46-41AB-ACCC-EE366009D7A4.png

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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS is quiet through the end of next work week, it will be interesting to see if there is one last bout of wintry weather to track as we go into the last two weeks of March, but I will be cleaning out my garden beds this week as things finally dry out.

C55A66B3-5F34-4A62-927C-48ACF9732515.png

DC152737-FB46-41AB-ACCC-EE366009D7A4.png

The potential interesting time frame would be after this. Starting next weekend and beyond.

Wouldn't shock me to have 1 more event to track. 

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I'm ready for the 60s/70s being advertised next week. screw snow, bring warmth and spring. 

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14 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'm ready for the 60s/70s being advertised next week. screw snow, bring warmth and spring. 

Yep...I mean we're obviously still gonna have our chill shots into April but next week is gonna be nice...CMC actually has us getting near 80 Friday

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33 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The potential interesting time frame would be after this. Starting next weekend and beyond.

Wouldn't shock me to have 1 more event to track. 

Yea there’s no threat until after this front day 7 or so, if that front is strong enough (near lakes) it could set up the follow up wave near texas

077A9560-4C09-44F0-ADF8-F200A68538C2.png

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I was flipping through pictures and was amazed at how crazy March 2014 was.  We had March 3 with 5-6 inches with temps in the TEENS the next day.  Then about 10" on March 17 and I think it might have snowed one more time at the end of the month. 

I agree with Mappy though and this 6-10 day outlook pleases me

image.png.6c6e87f20899f7a9cb86314f67308f75.png

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21 hours ago, Avdave said:

I would be happy with DCA compared to here in Raleigh.   Im at 1.6" STD lol.

 

Not to get personal but what kind of STD do you have?. 

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4 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I was flipping through pictures and was amazed at how crazy March 2014 was.  We had March 3 with 5-6 inches with temps in the TEENS the next day.  Then about 10" on March 17 and I think it might have snowed one more time at the end of the month. 

I agree with Mappy though and this 6-10 day outlook pleases me

 

Should easily get our first 70 (and maybe 75 if things break right) of the year in DC!

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Euro has a little clipper like system saturday night the 13th into 14th...nothing exciting verbatim but would be a little snow/mix maybe for the northern tier, otherwise nothing much of note thru the run

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