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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I can see it in the 12z operational GFS's 'attitude' - for lack of better word.

The arguments I've put forth regarding either La Nina ... HC  ( or somehow someway they work together ) is also muddled causality melded in with spring heights inching higher ( coherently in this run..)

Its difficult to separate the which is which in proportion

But this run is speeding the flow up again.. shearing and Lakes cutting as the S heights become ( perhaps ) seasonally impenetrable.  

On top of all.. the CPC telecon spread is even inched warmer by curve interpretation...  I'll tell ya, this run appears to offer two trace of snow chances at Logan through 360 hours. If those fail, heh...  we put March in the Blutowski running...

There has never been a 0     point     0       0        March at Logan.  One's gotta figure we get nothing out of March but a ruined futility trophy at some point.  

 

 

CPC

20210306_163806.jpg

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Good god that looks horrible.

Not happening but it’s even crazy to think about.  Its like 5 full days of -20C or lower 850 temps up here.  I can’t imagine a worst way to run the 3rd week of March than dry, frigid polar vortex over head.

5-day anomalies just for shits and giggles.

977D4EF1-6459-4A40-8CCF-06B63DEF5FEB.thumb.png.744609a1821a05c272de84cb2ed7c81b.png

And a 5-day average of -20 departures at the surface in the mtns.  GFS your drunk.

6EBB3956-A8BF-4767-8080-1B74E52F9819.thumb.png.17b45fa834d6ac0b3b758172cf0b3954.png

Nice rains to Maine’s there 

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I feel like the models typically overdo the airmasses as we get into the transition portion of the season from winter to spring. They like to keep driving the deep cold thicknesses our way, but they are usually a mirage come verification time. This week is going to be a warm week for the northern CONUS and once we get a few days of that into the initialization I wonder if the models will start sensing more of the airmass modification with Tippy's cryosphere loss. Yeah, the cold is probably overdone either way because it's absurd anomalies so it's a moot point anyway.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I feel like the models typically overdo the airmasses as we get into the transition portion of the season from winter to spring. They like to keep driving the deep cold thicknesses our way, but they are usually a mirage come verification time. This week is going to be a warm week for the northern CONUS and once we get a few days of that into the initialization I wonder if the models will start sensing more of the airmass modification with Tippy's cryosphere loss. Yeah, the cold is probably overdone either way because it's absurd anomalies so it's a moot point anyway.

Nice EPO dump

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I feel like the models typically overdo the airmasses as we get into the transition portion of the season from winter to spring. They like to keep driving the deep cold thicknesses our way, but they are usually a mirage come verification time. This week is going to be a warm week for the northern CONUS and once we get a few days of that into the initialization I wonder if the models will start sensing more of the airmass modification with Tippy's cryosphere loss. Yeah, the cold is probably overdone either way because it's absurd anomalies so it's a moot point anyway.

Yeah to be clear, I didn't think a Day 10-15 op output on the 18z GFS held much weight... but it's crazy to think about that solution.  And great point about the models and how the conditions on the ground change. Do the models really grasp that surface feedback change? 

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Yeah Brian and I have mentioned this before but this is entering the bust time of year in machine guidance ... the reasons he cited are on point but also 

question : are we still drawing on the earlier 30 year mean?  The database ‘brain’ may not have the positive flop tendency ‘in mind’

my experience is use the Skew-T l-p diagrams under March Synoptics such as this and add 2 for 2-m. But you gotta determine the boundary layer depth. May not be 850mb ... 875 ... maybe 900

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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thinking widespread 70s maybe for 2 days. It'll be a recipe for overperforming temps. 

we live in New England, not New Jersey. widespread 70’s are unlikely for the majority of New England 

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19 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

we live in New England, not New Jersey. widespread 70’s are unlikely for the majority of New England 

You sure?
it’s been between 70 and 87 three times in the last five years between Feb and Mar. 

 

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45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some people act as if SNE is like Alaska compared to places just south. 

Boston had as much snow as NYC this year. 

 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

3 west miles from Boston has a foot more than Central Park. Isn't JFK in NYC.  How much have they had

Maybe compare apples to apples.  JFK LGA on the water like BOS.

20210306_235443.jpg

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