Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,602
    Total Members
    14,841
    Most Online
    eloveday
    Newest Member
    eloveday
    Joined

March 2021 Weather Discussion

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

George001
George001

The reason why people who live in eastern mass shouldn’t give up on the storm threat next week is that despite the fact that the pattern favors a large offshore ocean storm, we are pretty much stickin

George001
George001

I disagree, at least for east coast storms the Canadian is one of the best OP models, up there with the Euro and Navy. The Gfs and Icon are the garbage models not worth looking at. 

George001
George001

I have a ranking for the models that I’m somewhat familiar with   tier 1- Euro tier 2- Canadian, navy, href  tier 3- ukmet, nam, srefs, rgem tier 4- icon, kma, Jma, Brazilian

Posted Images

tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Maybe some here haven't seen real "high dews" like Augusta, GA in July.

I come from a place of high dews. The kind of weather where you need another shower by 9 AM sometimes.

I have no idea why anyone would want that, unless they didn't understand what "high dews" really meant.

PWM recorded a 77° TD in early August 1988 - that's more than enough for me.  Worst of my experience was in Sept 1965 during pre-season football practice at Hopkins.  One evening at 11 Baltimore (exact site unknown) was reporting 86° with rh 85% so TD was 81.  Water was running down the inside walls of the concrete room where we bunked.  Practice in pads was great fun.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I realize the snark .. but, I still wonder if the April is that bad this year ...

I originally surmised a few weeks ago, the plausibility of a La Nina and/or HC in combination, might eventually take over where the AO relaxes... serving up a warmer spring tendency. 

Unsure if it is for those reasons but regardless, this week is a good head start toward that statistical outcome.   We'll see...

Also, just looking at the Hemisphere from orbit: there are plenty of identifiable R-wave structures to gage the flow;  that means the correlations are alive and well.  I heard folks tossing the telecon breakdown out there... you're right in a vacuum but I'm not sure it is applicable to the here and now just yet.  I mean yeah, at some point more nebular structures/'noise' will make negative and positive NAOs or PNAs less usefully telling... I don't believe the status of the hemisphere and the modeling out in time really represents we are in that state anytime soon.

By the way, ...don't be shocked if the -NAO out there in the EPS and GEFs ... corrects more neutral.  I'm only mentioning because of trends since the AO recovery began last month. These extended ranged polarward indexes have been sagging their curves out there, only to lift them up when D10-14 gets nearer in time.  Just sayn'

The 00z Euro - as we discussed - now more progressive and not as mechanically foreboding with that D6/7 system.  It's a predictable correction scheme with that tool.  Any modestly +PNAP structure with a S/W up in Manitoba on D9 and look out!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be an elevated tstm risk early Friday in NNE, and then perhaps srfc based stuff in then aftn across the same area. Lets get some floods there.

Given the relative paucity of snowpack - no safer way to diminish it than the wx Sunday thru today - it would take a 2-3" warm RA to cause any flooding beyond some big puddles.  And except for northern Maine, ice on streams/rivers has softened and eroded from below, so the ice jam threat seems to be minimal outside of the St. John and its tributaries.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, TorchTiger said:

hard to believe it's only March...just another +20 day, or better 


Thursday...

Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week with daily
record highs possibly being challenged. See the Climate section
for details. Both the NAEFS and EC ENS situational awareness
table show height and temperature field above the 99th
percentile on Thursday, with 850mb temperatures rising to +10C
to +12C. There remains some questions how quickly clearing
could take place. As such, have utilized the 75th percentile to
yield highs in the low to mid 70s, with the CT River valley
having better chances of outperforming in temperatures because
of the longer duration of sunshine.

 

Meh

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted 
24009985220 -3701 191408 55071105   
30000742621 -2603 172703 59141308   
36000762445 01501 171911 59171310

Most probably don't know wtf these numbers mean... but I love them  nonetheless.  The NAM model is probably not going to be around forever and with the direction of the tech ambit and so forth... it's trivially a waste of time to learn how to decode FOUS at this point - ha, man... When I was in college back when dinosaurs roamed ... if you were good at doing so and could visualize between neighboring FOUS sites ( ALB/LGA...ETC..) ...you really didn't need any of these graphical cinemas that we use for for entertainment than analytics these days ..

Anyway...they are from the 12z NAM's FOUS grid for Logan ... 

The first bold is 24 hours from 8am just this morning - so 8am Thurs. 

The next, '09', mean 0.09 QPF... so that implies up to that point in time, light rain. 

The next is the wind about middle boundary layer,  add a 0 by conventional usage yields 140 degrees ( SE/SSE).

The next are temperatures are 980, 900 and 800 mb respectively... and still an inversion between the 980 mb and 900 mb ( 11C at 900 mb is pretty toasty for late March!), while it is only +7 below... That is a classic pre-warm frontal environment, 900 at 11 ...the boundary is nearby. Probably CT is already busted into warm sector there. 

The next row... bold, are the RH at 700 and 500 mb respectively.  50 to 70% is considered "partly cloud" by old school convention... SO, modulate accordingly..  These are showing/suggesting over eastern Mass, the sky is open and clear.  That 74 (unbold) is because it is muggy actually.. .and that lower number can either mean low clouds or elevated DP - in this case..it's may be some of both..but I probably leans clear with blue tinted hills in a muggy appeal. 

The next bold, "27" ... again that is the wind having veered around the west in the middle boundary layer.

Where available ... I suspect MOS  busts too cool given that look.  All that progression above is what it looks like with a strong warm front goes through.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM 250 RH does try to get some cirrus in here tomorrow aftn. May have to watch to see if that has an effect on temps, but it may not occur until late day.

yeah ..that's a draw back of that approach using FOUS grids ... not sure why that never has offered that 300 mb milk layer like that. ...sooo many warm days of yore that busted less because of that elevated RH shit.  I once saw it 22C at 850 mb, and 88 F at the sfc under a white sky 300 mb ceiling..

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Good call Brian - ... or 3km NAM I guess ?

but my interpretation of today was way too pessimistic from a couple night's ago.  It looked at the time like murk and pre-warm frontal sludge .. but it's dry as a bone and very high ceilings... Still 61 here ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, dendrite said:

1998 at ASH
3/25 50F
3/26 63F
3/27 77F
3/28 88F
3/29 73F
3/30 84F
3/31 90F

It was warmer than that still back WSW toward Lowell on the 29th -

Oh yeah... 3/29 was 87 up there on the monitor for the UML weather lab station - curious actually why KASH was 73... hm...  Either way, the next day on 3/30 was 88, and then 3/31 was 89! zomb ...

I've spun yore about what happened later on in the evening of the 31st that fateful day. The greatest backdoor front attributed, 1 hour temperature declination I had ever prior to, or since experienced while being a resident to anywhere east of the Hudson.  I did once come close in 2003, while working a gig that was set above the CVS at the 900 block of Comm Ave..across from B.C.'s then being built arena/rec center... It was 93 ish at 1 or so P.M. It was mid April ... Like all of 10 minutes passed the Labrador Current's seasonal nadir as it kisses by New England's coast as nice little foreshadow ...hm, maybe 89 in March and 93 in mid April isn't entirely synoptically stable - you think?

In she swept!  I distinctly recall the sky had two layers plainly observable: one was the on going cumulus ... the arriving BD was too shallow yet so the failed towers continued leaning NE... while underneath, shallow sailor's spirit scud racing SW...  Peering down from that 2nd floor over the Red line stop there... college girls clad in short-shorts with exposed thighs and halter tops stood arms crossed in huddles ... probably quite confused.  It was already 49 with wind funneling up the Ave. Ended up around 41 or so by early evening all through Metrowest...

 On March 31, 1998 it was 84F at 6 pm 3 hours after touching the 89.

It was 37F at midnight, 30 F of which shed in < 30 minutes between 7 and 8pm... You talk slammin' screen doors and snapping flags?  man - this was no 22 kt puffer BD ...these were whole gales for 15 minutes when that sucker ripped through.

Oh it was classic too - the 3pm analysis still back in the DIFAX days (although the web was catching on as a transmission/data dependency...) displayed a powerful S/W slicing SE just NE of Caribou up over far E Ontario...and immediately in the NVA region behind the cold frontal teeth were point literally not figuratively SW ... like it was a true BD.

As an aside, it seems we haven't really had 'that' particular ilk of BD in recent years... You know? where rolls in cold air form the NE ..and the front its self cuts rudely underneath a buoyant light warm air. I mean it's arguable either way... but in most of these lately - to me - seem more like N-door fronts, then a kind of secondary NE 'acceleration' - which may in fact be an amorphous BD genesis after the fact.. But it's a tedious distinction, either way.. 

Anyway, Caribous Maine at that 3pm hour was gusting on ASOS to 47kts!   NE... it was 41 after they had a record high - not sure...want to say 73... The radar had the boundary, too.  I guess it doesn't take long to get from KCAR to KBED at 45 kts, huh?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...