• Member Statistics

    16,619
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    City Central
    Newest Member
    City Central
    Joined
wdrag

March 2021

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The drought talk was so silly 

and so is saying this winter wasn't that good...I would take this winter over any winter from 1979-1992...

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, uncle W said:

and so is saying this winter wasn't that good...I would take this winter over any winter from 1979-1992...

100% agree. This was the best winter since 2015 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most of our snow comes in a 3-4 week period. In the snowy winters  of 09-10 and 10-11 most of the snow fell in a similar timeframe. 
 

If you’re disappointed about 40 inches of snow in the heart of winter then you should  consider moving.

The outlooks for this winter, including our great snowman19, were for warmth and no snow. So we definitely got lucky from the ssw 

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, uncle W said:

and so is saying this winter wasn't that good...I would take this winter over any winter from 1979-1992...

These winter ratings are really subjective and can vary quite a bit from location to location. Northern NJ back to NE PA had a great snowfall outcome. Long Island snowfall was good but not great by recent standards. All the epic snowstorms since 03 have really raised the bar on what is considered a good or great winter. As for the 79-92 period, I enjoyed 81-82 and 82-83 more than this winter. Getting close to the jackpot of an historic storm is more important to me like February 83 and April 82. My 3 favorite snowfall seasons since 09-10 were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

100% agree. This was the best winter since 2015 

I think 17-18 was better tbh.  This year was really saved by 3 weeks in February.  No snow in March is disappointing too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

These winter ratings are really subjective and can vary quite a bit from location to location. Northern NJ back to NE PA had a great snowfall outcome. Long Island snowfall was good but not great by recent standards. All the epic snowstorms since 03 have really raised the bar on what is considered a good or great winter. As for the 79-92 period, I enjoyed 81-82 and 82-83 more than this winter. Getting close to the jackpot of an historic storm is more important to me like February 83 and April 82. My 3 favorite snowfall seasons since 09-10 were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. 

 

I liked the storms when I was younger better...40" snow seasons are the new norm...from 1969-70 to 1992-93 there was only one winter with 40" or more and that year was 1977-78...we have exceeded. that winter six times since 1995...my favorite snowstorm as a kid is a toss up of March 1960 and Dec 1960...as a middle aged man Jan 1996 is a favorite and maybe alltime favorite depending on what side of the bed I woke up that day...recent favorite storm is the Dec 2010...

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Our coming period of very windy cutters will produce another wave break in early April. It will be interesting to see how long that period of blocking lasts. These wave breaks that pop up in the 6-10 range make the day 11-15 forecasts very uncertain.


New run

63CF6711-DF60-4BBD-9519-436A5BE4585A.thumb.png.ed052f9967dc2dc7da03b77d4ef1898d.png

Old run

F4155CC2-D3BC-4180-9C14-7B5E46526D19.thumb.png.b9c1a21108e917b3dc7e318753722017.png

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

February was amazing, the rest of it was fall-lite, but that's OK

any season with a 20" blizzard has to be at least an automatic B or greater, right?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is on track to be ewr's first 1" or greater precip event since the big snowstorm

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Temperatures topped out in the 50s across the region today as rain moved in. Up north, parts of Quebec saw record high temperatures earlier today. Records included: Quebec City: 59° (old record: 48°, 2000); Rivière-du-Loup: 56° (old record: 46°, 2000); and, Trois-Rivières: 54° (old record: 47°, 2000).

Through 8 pm EDT, rainfall totals included:

Allentown: 0.80"
Atlantic City: 1.78" (old record: 0.98", 1952)
Baltimore: 1.55" (old record: 1.22", 1989)
Harrisburg: 0.58"
Islip: 0.15"
New York City-JFK: 0.33"
New York City-LGA: 0.76"
New York City-NYC: 0.87"
Newark: 1.01"
Philadelphia: 1.53" (old record: 1.24”, 1989)
Washington, DC: 1.69" (old record: 1.45", 1905)
Wilmington, DE: 1.77" (old record: 1.32", 1989)

Rain will move away from the region later tonight. Before then, much of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will have seen 0.50"-1.50" rain with locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00".

Tomorrow and Friday will be much warmer days. Friday will likely be the warmest day so far this year. Highs in the region will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s tomorrow and lower to middle 70s with some upper 70s on Friday. Some showers and even thundershowers are possible, especially on Friday.

In terms of records, daily record high temperatures could be challenged or broken tomorrow across upstate New York, parts of northern New England, and Quebec. Daily records are possible in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas on Friday.

A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures remains underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Some of the guidance suggests that a cold shot and at least some snow could affect northern New England near the end of March.

April could start out on the cool side. However, historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +7.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.278 today. Since 1950, only 1978, 1986, and 2020 saw the AO reach or exceed +4.000 during the March 20-31 period.

The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes.

April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018.

Select April Statistics:

1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1
1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3
1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2
1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0
1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0

Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013

Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926

Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015

Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901

Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020

Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.4° above normal).

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

I think 17-18 was better tbh.  This year was really saved by 3 weeks in February.  No snow in March is disappointing too.

I personally hate March snow so us getting skunked isn’t a big let down to me. I rather get all our snow in DJF to maximize snow cover etc. 

 

17-18 I can’t rank higher because of a few reasons....

1. The cold pattern from December into January that year was mainly dry. The costal storm in early January mainly effected the jersey shore and LI.

2. February was a torch! Winter shut off after that early January storm until March. 
 

3. Horrible winter for snow pack 

4. The March climo hurt in different ways for all of those costal storms. The best event here was the last storm of that Month and it melted in two days 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Cfa said:

That’d honestly be amazing.

I've always wanted to experience the air conditioned beaches of Dubai lol.  I'm sure we could heat up the part of the ocean that's close to our beaches, that's pretty shallow water.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I personally hate March snow so us getting skunked isn’t a big let down to me. I rather get all our snow in DJF to maximize snow cover etc. 

 

17-18 I can’t rank higher because of a few reasons....

1. The cold pattern from December into January that year was mainly dry. The costal storm in early January mainly effected the jersey shore and LI.

2. February was a torch! Winter shut off after that early January storm until March. 
 

3. Horrible winter for snow pack 

4. The March climo hurt in different ways for all of those costal storms. The best event here was the last storm of that Month and it melted in two days 

March snowfall aint all that great.  I actually like April snow better.  2002-03 was one of my favorite winters because we had snow in December, February and April.  It's important to have either a very good January or a very good February to make the winter.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I personally hate March snow so us getting skunked isn’t a big let down to me. I rather get all our snow in DJF to maximize snow cover etc. 

 

17-18 I can’t rank higher because of a few reasons....

1. The cold pattern from December into January that year was mainly dry. The costal storm in early January mainly effected the jersey shore and LI.

2. February was a torch! Winter shut off after that early January storm until March. 
 

3. Horrible winter for snow pack 

4. The March climo hurt in different ways for all of those costal storms. The best event here was the last storm of that Month and it melted in two days 

I liked the April 2018 storm better than any of those March ones.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our coming period of very windy cutters will produce another wave break in early April. It will be interesting to see how long that period of blocking lasts. These wave breaks that pop up in the 6-10 range make the day 11-15 forecasts very uncertain.


New run

63CF6711-DF60-4BBD-9519-436A5BE4585A.thumb.png.ed052f9967dc2dc7da03b77d4ef1898d.png

Old run

F4155CC2-D3BC-4180-9C14-7B5E46526D19.thumb.png.b9c1a21108e917b3dc7e318753722017.png

 

chances for early April snow?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, uncle W said:

I liked the storms when I was younger better...40" snow seasons are the new norm...from 1969-70 to 1992-93 there was only one winter with 40" or more and that year was 1977-78...we have exceeded. that winter six times since 1995...my favorite snowstorm as a kid is a toss up of March 1960 and Dec 1960...as a middle aged man Jan 1996 is a favorite and maybe alltime favorite depending on what side of the bed I woke up that day...recent favorite storm is the Dec 2010...

January 2016!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting discussion from Mt. Holly for both Friday and Sunday.

Model soundings suggest winds will be increasing in this regime, 
  readily gusting to 35+ mph by afternoon. As winds begin to veer, 
  diurnal mixing peaks, and a reinforcing cold front approaches 
  the area, speeds will likely exceed advisory criteria in much of 
  the area. Winds at 850 mb will be approaching 50 kt, and mixing 
  has the potential to reach or even exceed this level. Seems 
  likely we will need a wind advisory for Friday afternoon and 
  evening, and if mixing ends up being more efficient than 
  currently advertised, a rogue severe-caliber gust may occur. 
  Held off on issuing wind headlines early this morning given 
  ongoing/near-term weather, but expect wind products to be  
  issued for the afternoon package. 
   
  Winds should decrease fairly rapidly Friday night as the 
  migratory surface low takes the strong pressure gradient with it 
  to our northeast. Strong cold advection will be occurring in the 
  post-frontal regime, but winds will not entirely decouple. Thus, 
  kept Friday night lows fairly warm, generally in the 40s to 
  around 50. 
   
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
  A fairly strong system will affect the region on Sunday, though 
  the surface cyclone should lift well north of the region. 
  Nevertheless, upper dynamics look fairly impressive as an  
  initially positively-tilted trough begins to pivot to a more  
  neutral tilt as it approaches the East Coast during the day. A  
  100+ kt speed max at 500 mb will nose into the Mid-Atlantic  
  during the afternoon, collocated with a surging cold front to  
  the south of the aforementioned surface low. As warm advection  
  races north in the developing warm sector, convection should  
  readily develop along the attendant warm/cold fronts. Widespread 
  precipitation should occur in New England and the Mid-Atlantic  
  in this setup, with areal QPF likely exceeding a half inch  
  across the CWA (locally much higher amounts possible). Will need 
  to watch this system closely, as both severe and hydro issues  
  may be present depending on the usual timing/track issues. 
   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts...

The storm responsible for yesterday’s significant rainfall has now moved away from the region. Yesterday’s precipitation totals included: New York City: 1.27” (highest figure since 1.85”, February 1, 2021); Newark: 1.35” (highest figure since 1.44”, February 1, 2021); and, Philadelphia 1.56” (highest figure since 1.59”, October 29, 2020 and new daily record for March 24).

Some of the warmest weather so far this year is now likely. The unseasonable warmth will climax tomorrow.

Today will be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 70°

Philadelphia: 71°

Some daily record high temperatures are possible across upstate New York, parts of northern New England, and Quebec. That region could also see some locally strong thunderstorms.

Tomorrow will be windy and very warm. Temperatures could challenge or break daily record highs in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There could also be some showers and thundershowers. 

Daily records for March 16 include: 

Allentown: 74°, 1963

Bridgeport: 70°, 1954

Islip: 65°, 1976

New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954

New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943

New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922

Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986

Philadelphia: 80°, 1921

Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963

A cooler weekend will follow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last 7 days of March are averaging 54degs.(46/63), about +7.0.

Month to date is 42.6[+1.2].        March should end at 45.2[+2.7].

The first week of April looks cold at 42degs.(35/49), or about -6.0.      This represents a failure to communicate with EURO Weeklies, the 8-14 and the GEFS.

51*(98%RH) here at 6am, FOG <0.2.       53* FOG now <0.5 at 8am.         54* at 9am and back to FOG <0.2.     56* at 11am and FOG as dense as ever.     Fog lifted Noon to 12:30pm, at 58*/59*.       62* by 1pm.      63* at 1:30pm.     As predicted, T down to 58* by 2:30pm and some fog back in.

HRRR says coast gets to 60* by 2pm, then may fall back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

The storm responsible for yesterday’s significant rainfall has now moved away from the region. Yesterday’s precipitation totals included: New York City: 1.27” (highest figure since 1.85”, February 1, 2021); Newark: 1.35” (highest figure since 1.44”, February 1, 2021); and, Philadelphia 1.56” (highest figure since 1.59”, October 29, 2020 and new daily record for March 24).

Some of the warmest weather so far this year is now likely. The unseasonable warmth will climax tomorrow.

Today will be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 70°

Philadelphia: 71°

Some daily record high temperatures are possible across upstate New York, parts of northern New England, and Quebec. That region could also see some locally strong thunderstorms.

Tomorrow will be windy and very warm. Temperatures could challenge or break daily record highs in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There could also be some showers and thundershowers. 

Daily records for March 16 include: 

Allentown: 74°, 1963

Bridgeport: 70°, 1954

Islip: 65°, 1976

New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954

New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943

New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922

Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986

Philadelphia: 80°, 1921

Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963

A cooler weekend will follow.

Didnt get much here near JFK, maybe half an inch of rain?

 

JFK should easily break Friday's record, dont you think, Don?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, bluewave said:

These winter ratings are really subjective and can vary quite a bit from location to location. Northern NJ back to NE PA had a great snowfall outcome. Long Island snowfall was good but not great by recent standards. All the epic snowstorms since 03 have really raised the bar on what is considered a good or great winter. As for the 79-92 period, I enjoyed 81-82 and 82-83 more than this winter. Getting close to the jackpot of an historic storm is more important to me like February 83 and April 82. My 3 favorite snowfall seasons since 09-10 were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. 

 

I mean it depends, western LI was pretty good, a solid B winter.

Suffolk County sticks out too far into the Ocean and we're returning to the old storm track now.

You left out 13-14 and 14-15 lol.

14-15 was particularly amazing.
 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.