bluewave Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 30 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I'm actually surprised that the snow just shut off after February. Very odd like others have mentioned to have such a poor January and March. Watch us get a good April storm lol. It matches the pattern since the snowfall increase in 02-03. Notice how the big February years had a snowy December and less snowy January and March. 13-14 was able to manage a snowy January but less snowy March. We pretty much knew the snowfall was going to come to quick stop following the record AO rise in mid-February. AO volatility has been a common feature for us in recent years. The 10-11 season cut off abruptly preventing us from catching 95-96 when the AO rapidly rose. 15-16 featured the epic AO reversal that gave us the +13 in December and 30” snowstorm in January. 17-18 featured another big AO swing which produced 80° in February and 30” of snow in March. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T M 38.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It matches the pattern since the snowfall increase in 02-03. Notice how the big February years had a snowy December and less snowy January and March. 13-14 was able to manage a snowy January but less snowy March. We pretty much knew the snowfall was going to come to quick stop following the record AO rise in mid-February. AO volatility has been a common feature for us in recent years. The 10-11 season cut off abruptly preventing us from catching 95-96 when the AO rapidly rose. 15-16 featured the epic AO reversal that gave us the +13 in December and 30” snowstorm in January. 17-18 featured another big AO swing which produced 80° in February and 30” of snow in March. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T M 38.6 Boom bust has been the cycle for sure. 17-18 had the huge March but lousy Feb, and had the big 1/4 storm. 15-16 snow came from late Jan into early Feb. 10-11 had the crushing month long period from Christmas to 2/1. This year for me 10” before the 1/31-2/1 storm and 30” within under 3 weeks after that, nada since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 i wish every day was like the this chilly breezy low humidity..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Looks like a more seasonal leaf out expected. Things are much further behind than last year but with the milder temperatures we should make a lot of progress till Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 EURO WEEKLIES FOR APRIL--------A Big Bore. May to start wet and cool? W1 DRY AN T'S W2 DRY AN T'S W3 WETTER AN TO NORMAL W4 WET NORMAL The days in and around April 01 have the highest chance of the year for measurable precipitation at 41%-----but not this year apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 The extreme drought conditions in the West should be a player in the summer forecast. Another factor will probably be the record warm pool east of New England. So maybe a dueling WAR and Rockies/ Plains ridge for the summer. Warmest winter SSTs on record east of New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: The extreme drought conditions in the West should be a player in the summer forecast. Another factor will probably be the record warm pool east of New England. So maybe a dueling WAR and Rockies/ Plains ridge for the summer. Warmest winter SSTs on record east of New England Could mean another active east coast hurricane season if we have the strong WAR and trough that tries to fit between a huge West ridge and the WAR. Storms would be brought north up the coast I’d think. Maybe substantial number of landfalls too unfortunately-strong WAR might mean fewer recurves before strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Could mean another active east coast hurricane season if we have the strong WAR and trough that tries to fit between a huge West ridge and the WAR. Storms would be brought north up the coast I’d think. Maybe substantial number of landfalls too unfortunately-strong WAR might mean fewer recurves before strikes. Active seasons are almost a lock now unless we have a moderate or stronger Nino. Our buffer zone of sub 80 degree water keeps shrinking as well. It’s only a matter of time before we see a cat three rocket up the coast 38 style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Could mean another active east coast hurricane season if we have the strong WAR and trough that tries to fit between a huge West ridge and the WAR. Storms would be brought north up the coast I’d think. Maybe substantial number of landfalls too unfortunately-strong WAR might mean fewer recurves before strikes. The most interesting part of our tropical activity last 10 years has been the impressive blocking to our north and east. The strong WAR in 2011 forced Irene to run just inland up through the Carolinas to our area. Then Sandy in 2012 met the record block to our north and made the historic left turn into New Jersey. Last summer Isaias made the tucked in track just inland due to the strong ridge east of New England. So the 500 mb blocking patterns have prevented a stronger hurricane landfall from Suffolk up into New England. This Suffolk to New England track was common from the 30s to the 50s. But it has been absent since Hurricane Bob in 1991. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Booked a tee time for Sunday midday. Going to feel great to get out and about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 19, 2021 Author Share Posted March 19, 2021 Saw the note on the cutter: If EC right, it's modeling decent wind on Friday the 26th. 40-50kt. Questions about including lapse rates, and intensity track. Impact less in early spring w no leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The most interesting part of our tropical activity last 10 years has been the impressive blocking to our north and east. The strong WAR in 2011 forced Irene to run just inland up through the Carolinas to our area. Then Sandy in 2012 met the record block to our north and made the historic left turn into New Jersey. Last summer Isaias made the tucked in track just inland due to the strong ridge east of New England. So the 500 mb blocking patterns have prevented a stronger hurricane landfall from Suffolk up into New England. This Suffolk to New England track was common from the 30s to the 50s. But it has been absent since Hurricane Bob in 1991. Yup. One of these days maybe soon a storm will take an Isaias track but hit NC instead as a cat 3. If that happened it would’ve been devastating even up to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 the late August 1949 hurricane was an inland runner similar to last years storm... 1949 hurricane... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998805 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998811/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Earlier today, the temperature fell to 31° in New York City. Overnight, the temperature could again approach or reach freezing in Central Park. Afterward, it is possible that New York City will not see the temperature fall to freezing until some time next fall, as the remainder of March will likely see above freezing temperatures. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Select April Statistics: 1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1 1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3 1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2 1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013 Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926 Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015 Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874 The coming weekend will mark the start of a warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Most of the guidance favors the development of warmer conditions that would continue through the remainder of the month. There is potential for near record to record warm conditions to occur in eastern Canada early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -2.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.238 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.3° (1.8° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Newark NJ had a low of 33 today just missing a 32 minimum day...they have 78 so far compared to NYC with 64...NYC was 31 today for number 64...Newark usually has 10-20 more freezing days than NYC... Year..........Oct...Nov...Dec.....Jan.....Feb....Mar.....Apr...Tot... 2020-21.....1.........2.......19.......25.......21.......11..................78 2019-20.....0.......11.......19........18.......13........3.........1.......65 2018-19.....0.........9.......17.......25.......21.......16.........1.......89 2017-18.....0.........8.......21.......24.......13.......18.........4.......88 2016-17.....0.........1.......18.......13.......18.......16.........0.......66 2015-16.....1.........4.........0........27......17.........6.........5.......60 2014-15.....0.......12.......12........28......28.......19.........0.......99 2013-14.....0.......12.......21........27......25.......19.........1......105 2012-13.....0.........6.......14........21.......23.......15.........3.......82 2011-12.....1.........1.......14........17.......15.........5.........0.......53 2010-11.....0.........3.......27........28.......21........12........0.......96 2009-10.....0.........1.......20.......25.......24..........2.........0.......72 2008-09.....0.......12.......20.......30.......23........13.........0.......98 2007-08.....0.........3.......17........22......21........14.........0.......77 2006-07.....0.........2.......12........19......27........12.........5.......77 2005-06.....0.........6.......24.......15........20.......14.........0.......79 2004-05.....0.........4.......17........20.......23.......19.........0.......83 2003-04.....0.........2.......22.......27.......26........11.........3.......91 2002-03.....0.........4.......22.......29.......23.......14..........3.......95 2001-02.....0.........4.......11.......15.......16........11.........2.......59 2000-01.....0..........7.......28......25.......19........13..........0.......92 1999-00.....0.........3.......16........23.......21..........4..........1........68 1998-99.....0.........3.......14........22.......15.........11..........0.......65 1997-98.....1.......10.......18........14.......12.........12..........0.......67 1996-97.....0.......15.......13........26.......16.........16..........2.......88 1995-96.....0.......16.......28.......28........18.........17..........0......107 1994-95.....0.........5.......13.......19........24...........6..........3.......70 1993-94.....0.........4.......15.......28.......25..........12..........0.......84 1992-93.....0.........5.......14.......20.......24..........15..........0.......78 1991-92.....0.........5.......18.......19.......19..........17..........2.......80 1990-91.....0.........2.......13.......23.......16..........10..........0.......64 1989-90.....0.........9.......31.......17........16..........11.........1.......85 1988-89.....1.........2.......24.......19........22..........15.........0.......83 1987-88.....0.........5.......15.......24........24..........13.........0.......81 1986-87.....0.........6........16.......25.......28..........14.........1.......90 1985-86.....0.........0........23.......25.......23..........12.........0.......83 1984-85.....0.........9........14.......29.......21..........13.........0.......86 1983-84.....0.........2........18.......27.......12..........15.........0.......74 1982-83.....1..........9.......12.......20.......19...........7..........0.......68 1981-82.....1..........6.......22.......28.......19.........10..........7.......93 1980-81.....0........10.......24.......29.......16.........16..........1.......96 1979-80.....0.........2........15........25.......24........14..........3.......83 1978-79.....0.........4........19........20.......22..........9..........1.......75 1977-78.....0.........7........23........28.......28........13..........1.....100 1976-77.....3........17.......27.......31........19..........8..........3.....108 1975-76.....2..........1.......21.......29........16........13..........2.......84 1974-75.....3.........8.......16........18........17........16..........9.......87 1973-74.....0.........2.......16........19........25........11..........1.......74 1972-73.....1..........9........9........18........19..........2..........0.......58 1971-72.....0.........5.......11........21........25........16..........4.......82 1970-71.....0.........4.......20.......28.........15........10..........0.......77 1969-70.....2.........9.......26.......30........24.........14..........2.....107 1968-69.....0.........2.......27.......23........23.........20..........1.......96 1967-68.....0........12.......15.......25.......25.........12.........1.......90 1966-67.....1.........5........21.......20.......25.........16.........1.......89 1965-66.....2.........7........18.......24.......21.........13.........1.......85 1964-65.....0.........5.......19........28.......22........12..........1.......87 1963-64.....0.........3.......27........20.......26........13..........4.......93 1962-63......1........3.......23........25.......26.......12...........1.......91 1961-62......0........6.......23.......27.......23........12...........1.......92 1960-61......0........4.......28.......28.......15........12...........0.......87 1959-60.....0.........7........18......24.......24........25...........1.......99 1958-59.....0.........5........27......25.......24........18...........0.......89 1957-58.....0.........6........16......24.......23..........9...........1.......79 1956-57.....0........12.......14......29.......22........10...........3.......90 1955-56.....0.........8........27......27.......19.........20..........3.....104 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 11 hours ago, bluewave said: It matches the pattern since the snowfall increase in 02-03. Notice how the big February years had a snowy December and less snowy January and March. 13-14 was able to manage a snowy January but less snowy March. We pretty much knew the snowfall was going to come to quick stop following the record AO rise in mid-February. AO volatility has been a common feature for us in recent years. The 10-11 season cut off abruptly preventing us from catching 95-96 when the AO rapidly rose. 15-16 featured the epic AO reversal that gave us the +13 in December and 30” snowstorm in January. 17-18 featured another big AO swing which produced 80° in February and 30” of snow in March. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T M 38.6 Definitely agree, and it's amazing how 02-03 was on par with this year for Dec. and Feb. but at least back then we had spring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 20, 2021 Author Share Posted March 20, 2021 EC op almost 90 KT at 850 Fri AM, GFS ~80, GGEM ~70; All ensembles considerably less. Worthy of monitoring for a while on a possible SVR wind event FRI AM or midday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, wdrag said: EC op almost 90 KT at 850 Fri AM, GFS ~80, GGEM ~70; All ensembles considerably less. Worthy of monitoring for a while on a possible SVR wind event FRI AM or midday? NWS Mt. Holly actually mentioned the possibility for the first severe weather of the season in their discussion this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 51degs.(43/59), or about +6.0. Month to date is -0.3[40.3]. Should be +1.9[44.4] by the 28th. No precipitation for another 5 days. May come with 30mph wind + any gusts. 35degs.(42%RH) here at 6am. (was 40* at midnight) 40* by 10am. 45* by Noon. 46* by 12:30pm, but 45* by 1pm. 50* by 3pm. 46* by 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 20, 2021 Author Share Posted March 20, 2021 What's the scoop on GFSv16 implementation. Doesn't seem like it happened as scheduled on the 17th. Did I miss a message? Thank you, Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Just now, wdrag said: What's the scoop on GFSv16 implementation. Doesn't seem like it happened as scheduled on the 17th. Did I miss a message? Thank you, Walt I believe it was postponed due to the severe weather outbreak earlier in the week. Someone correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 20, 2021 Author Share Posted March 20, 2021 44 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I believe it was postponed due to the severe weather outbreak earlier in the week. Someone correct me if I am wrong. Thanks... ad just saw this on-line. Monday: Effective March 22, 2021 . Updated to reflect delay in implementation date to Monday, March 22 due to Critical Weather Day. Effective on or about March 22, 2021, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) cycle of the Global Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 10 hours ago, wdrag said: 8 hours ago, wdrag said: What's the scoop on GFSv16 implementation. Doesn't seem like it happened as scheduled on the 17th. Did I miss a message? Thank you, Walt Looks like Monday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Morning thoughts... The low temperature at Central Park was 33° this morning. As a result, yesterday’s 31° figure was likely New York City’s last freeze of 2020-21, based both on the latest ensemble guidance and diminishing frequency of April freezes. Under bright sunshine, today will feature a springlike afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 59° Philadelphia: 59° Tomorrow will be continued fair and mild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Happy Spring 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 20, 2021 Author Share Posted March 20, 2021 Am working now, 2-3 days/week. Fewer posts. I will not be on top of isolated svr events. Something like what might occur (broad synoptic scale) Friday, I'll try to thread once it looks a little more certain. However, if others are more confident...go for it. Thanks. Was a good winter. If any modeling surprise, it wasn't the advance notice, it was the total failure of March 19 MA southward. I suppose someone could say that ensemble chance of 1" were only 70-75% in MA to the far nw side of our forum, meaning there was almost a 30% of a non 1" event (verified), it still is very seldom that events are total busts (no accumulation). So the surprise on the large scale events are very very few, and this one was on the downside (for me). 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 If this year has no measurable snow in March but a little in April it would be only the third time that has happened in NYC...I think there is only two winters that had a great February with major storms with no measurable snow in March but measurable snow in April...1894 and 1921... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 23* this morning. Probably get a few more freezes out here. In the city now to get my second vaccine shot. Nice day to walk around with the kids 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 30 minutes ago, uncle W said: If this year has no measurable snow in March but a little in April it would be only the third time that has happened in NYC...I think there is only two winters that had a great February with major storms with no measurable snow in March but measurable snow in April...1894 and 1921... Newark is on track for its earliest last measurable snowfall following a 45”+ season. So you can see how extreme that AO reversal was back in mid-February. With the exception of 14-15, our snowfall has been very AO dependent. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Last Measurable 1 1996-04-30 78.4 4-10 2 1961-04-30 73.5 3-31 3 2011-04-30 68.2 3-21 4 1978-04-30 64.9 3-16 5 1994-04-30 64.5 3-18 6 2014-04-30 61.1 4-16 7 1958-04-30 58.3 3-21 8 1967-04-30 57.3 3-22 9 2003-04-30 53.1 4-7 10 1948-04-30 51.0 3-11 11 2010-04-30 47.9 2-26 12 2004-04-30 47.8 3-19 13 2015-04-30 46.4 3-21 14 2021-04-30 45.7 2-22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Newark is on track for its earliest last measurable snowfall following a 45”+ season. So you can see how extreme that AO reversal was back in mid-February. With the exception of 14-15, our snowfall has been very AO dependent. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Last Measurable 1 1996-04-30 78.4 4-10 2 1961-04-30 73.5 3-31 3 2011-04-30 68.2 3-21 4 1978-04-30 64.9 3-16 5 1994-04-30 64.5 3-18 6 2014-04-30 61.1 4-16 7 1958-04-30 58.3 3-21 8 1967-04-30 57.3 3-22 9 2003-04-30 53.1 4-7 10 1948-04-30 51.0 3-11 11 2010-04-30 47.9 2-26 12 2004-04-30 47.8 3-19 13 2015-04-30 46.4 3-21 14 2021-04-30 45.7 2-22 this year was 2007-08 on steriods... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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