• Member Statistics

    16,623
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    friday
    Newest Member
    friday
    Joined
stormtracker

February 18/19 Party - STORM MODE

Recommended Posts

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

.8" of QPF that is all happening below 32? sign me up. I'd like more but if that's the low-end amount I think we should all be okay.

Yep, that’s where I’m at.  A few inches of snow and sleet on top.  Sounds fun.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Do you go back and do a horizontal line with the actual once the event is over?

Yup! Just a little reference line

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, nj2va said:

Yep, that’s where I’m at.  A few inches of snow and sleet on top.  Sounds fun.

its become a run of the mill snowstorm we used to get in the 80s. Really nothing special about this one according to the euro

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
  • Confused 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Seems to be haulin' ass though which is going to cut down the QPF

 And scary, because most storms this winter seem to move through even quicker than had been modeled. Even that rain event two nights ago, was here and gone in just a few hours. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NYC gets like 30 hrs of pixie dust.   Going to set a record for the most boring storm ever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ecmwf-deterministic-dc-precip_1hr_inch-3653200.thumb.png.963540383f4fdd30b74a2feb193456c1.png

This is a pretty fun panel. Quite the area of 1-2"/hr rates with mid levels comfortably below 0 for all of DC and NW. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Huge discrepancies in QPF right now on EURO vs. other models... Not too sure about it tbh. Even the typically dry 3k NAM has about .2" more for the NW crew than the EURO. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is bs. Half the qpf of GFS. The euro is always so dry

qpf_acc.us_ma.png

I posted that this was coming. It’s always drier than the others. Doesn’t mean it won’t be wetter

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Ji is in meltdown mode! Even DT divorced the Euro. Ji, let us know if you need a divorce attorney.

The Euro is still decent and if this is the worst case scenario, we take!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away.  
 

 

5FFAE8BE-FB3C-4664-9A68-499F0DF8E285.png

C0559E07-87D1-4BCD-8E64-0B6026E86EC9.png

We are like 12 hours from first flakes lol.  But don’t worry 18z will be different. Hoping for a last minute positive trend! Reverse bust!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

Huge discrepancies in QPF right now on EURO vs. other models... Not too sure about it tbh. Even the typically dry 3k NAM has about .2" more for the NW crew than the EURO. 

i mean no other region in the country has to go through this where right before a snowstorm....models are so different with snow/qpf/upper level temps..etc/having or not having a wave 2

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away.  
 

 

5FFAE8BE-FB3C-4664-9A68-499F0DF8E285.png

C0559E07-87D1-4BCD-8E64-0B6026E86EC9.png

A 'meeting of the minds' with a merge to the middle of both would be fine with me. Would make an almost area wide 5-10 event. I'll take that every time.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:

i mean no other region in the country has to go through this where right before a snowstorm....models are so different with snow/qpf/upper level temps..etc/having or not having a wave 2

Hasn’t happened yet brother.  Keep the faith.  We are never getting the storm you want which is Jan 16’...not this year.  Be happy it could be rain...all rain. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

A 'meeting of the minds' with a merge to the middle of both would be fine with me. Would make an almost area wide 5-10 event. I'll take that every time.

It’s weird.  The GFS-Para jacks the DC metro area.  The Euro has the same area as a snowhole.  

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

It’s weird.  The GFS-Para jacks the DC metro area with precip.  The Euro has the same area as a precip hole.  

Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. 
Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The para is just an outlier, IMO. It's not like it has support from other models anymore. It was abandoned by the parent GFS and the Ukie and it's trying to hold down the weenie fort all by its lonesome. I would weight it very low right now. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnowDreamer said:

The para is just an outlier, IMO. It's not like it has support from other models anymore. It was abandoned by the parent GFS and the Ukie and it's trying to hold down the weenie fort all by its lonesome. I would weight it very low right now. 

How about the Icon? Better or worse than the Para? NOGAPS? 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away.  
 

 

5FFAE8BE-FB3C-4664-9A68-499F0DF8E285.png

C0559E07-87D1-4BCD-8E64-0B6026E86EC9.png

Here in Philly it's the same theme. The closer to the event the more confusing it is becoming. I think its the multiple shortwaves causing all the issues. Youre seeing a partial phase with the energy dropping down from Canada while the main energy is still digging in the south. The timing & strength of this seems to be causing increased variables. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. 
Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there

Sorry, I edited it so snowhole after I saw that the precip was actually fairly decent.  Looks like a combination of precip and temp differences.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro still low 10s in the cities and single digits in the 'burbs Sunday morning.  Euro's the coldest global on this point.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mappy said:

How about the Icon? Better or worse than the Para? NOGAPS? 

The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para. 

icon.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said:

The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para. 

icon.png

Yeah, my post about the Para was kind of tongue in cheek.  Most guidance does seem to be focusing in on 2-4/3-6 type deal for DC area, plus sleet and ice.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Between model run question inspired by the IBM model posts before. 

Are all the major models entirely government-funded models? If so, it does seem to me that there should be market incentive to push the limits on modeling. For gov't purposes it may be sufficient to give people a 24-48 hour warning of inclement weather, allow preparations to be made to protect life and property, and make sure you have the salt trucks and plows deployed in the right places (and erring on the side of caution here is no big deal). But if I've got billions invested and it's going to be affected by ice or travel disruptions, I want to know 2 weeks ago. 

Science has limits and it may just be that there isn't much more that can be done. But if I was Elon Musk ...  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CWG updated forecast looks pretty decent to me although their "boom" range increased.  I know they like to make their regions sort of "elegantly curved", but it always makes me a little twitchy that it doesn't align with the Fall Line.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.