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mimillman

Feb 21-23 Why Not

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Not a whole lot of time for heights to rebound after the system later this week.  Looks like decent dynamics to work with and I'd say that I-80 northward is pretty safe to stay all snow... maybe even down to I-70 mostly snow.

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00z Euro op and UKMET were kind of disjointed and thus more paltry, but EPS was more similar to previous Euro runs. Trend is for more of a positively tilted short-wave scooting along. What I like in this setup is that it looks to be yet another one with steep to very steep mid-upper lapse rates. Also, guidance is showing a respectable PWAT plume. So, could be a relatively short duration but decent thump of warm advection snow. At this time, advisory type amounts are probably the ceiling.

 

 

 

 

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A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER   
TROUGH PROVIDES US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH  
THE AREA SITUATED UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.   
THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE  
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A   
HEAVIER WET SNOW VERSUS SOME OF THE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WE HAVE HAD   
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A GOOD INDICATION THAT WE ARE TRENDING WARMER.  
STAY TUNED!   LOT PM AFD....a chance to increase snow pack before some melting ensues. Guessing this will be peak.

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6 hours ago, Baum said:

a chance to increase snow pack before some melting ensues. Guessing this will be peak.

Think we peaked yesterday (Tuesday). MDW compacted by 3” between Tuesday and Wednesday, and with warmer temps on the way (at last) and the late Feb sun, we’ll lose a few more. Regardless, what a month!

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2 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Think we peaked yesterday (Tuesday). MDW compacted by 3” between Tuesday and Wednesday, and with warmer temps on the way (at last) and the late Feb sun, we’ll lose a few more. Regardless, what a month!

lake fluff really compacts fast 

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Imagine a thread on this event a month ago. Now nary a post. I always get a chuckle how events are viewed within the framework of a good run or a snow drought. We had the boards lit for 1" fluffers just weeks ago. Now:

A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM TRACK AND THERMAL   
FIELDS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL   
INCHES OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.  - quad cities


FINER SCALE IMPORTANT DETAILS WILL BE SORTED OUT OVER THE NEXT   
FEW DAYS, BUT BIG PICTURE WISE, THINK THAT WHILE AMOUNTS PROBABLY  
HAVE AN UPPER LIMIT IN THE 2-4/3-5"- LOT via RC

IT IS AMAZING WHAT WE ACCLIMATE TO AND HOW OUR PERCEPTIONS OF WARMTH   
CHANGE WITH THE SEASONS OR SUSTAINED STRETCHES OF EXTREMES- Des Moines

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5 hours ago, Baum said:

Imagine a thread on this event a month ago. Now nary a post. I always get a chuckle how events are viewed within the framework of a good run or a snow drought. We had the boards lit for 1" fluffers just weeks ago. Now:

A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM TRACK AND THERMAL   
FIELDS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL   
INCHES OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.  - quad cities


FINER SCALE IMPORTANT DETAILS WILL BE SORTED OUT OVER THE NEXT   
FEW DAYS, BUT BIG PICTURE WISE, THINK THAT WHILE AMOUNTS PROBABLY  
HAVE AN UPPER LIMIT IN THE 2-4/3-5"- LOT via RC

IT IS AMAZING WHAT WE ACCLIMATE TO AND HOW OUR PERCEPTIONS OF WARMTH   
CHANGE WITH THE SEASONS OR SUSTAINED STRETCHES OF EXTREMES- Des Moines

This has the potential to be my biggest storm of the month, so I'm definitely watching it closely. 

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There's some shades of February 4th here. Not gonna lock in rates that heavy yet, but duration should be better. Definitely ingredients for heavy snow with very steep mid-upper lapse rates, strong forcing for ascent (and very strong omega well enough aligned with DGZ), and solid moisture.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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^sort of a bookend if I have events correct, which isn't easy. As the 4th ushered in the coldest of air, and this would essentially end that stretch.

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43 minutes ago, Baum said:

^sort of a bookend if I have events correct, which isn't easy. As the 4th ushered in the coldest of air, and this would essentially end that stretch.

 I was thinking the exact same thing. Picked up 3" in 1.5 hours during that event, 4.2" total.

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Nothing like a nice caking to cap off an epic pattern for snowlovers in the sub. And I'll actually be back for this one.

Of course very sad what is happening in Texas/south as a result of this pattern.

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Nothing like a nice caking to cap off an epic pattern for snowlovers in the sub. And I'll actually be back for this one.

Of course very sad what is happening in Texas/south as a result of this pattern.

Yeah what a debacle down there.  I have a cousin in the Houston metro area who lost power but fortunately not for very long.

As for this system, definitely seeing the potential for good rates.  At least a few inches looks like a good bet.

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5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

There's some shades of February 4th here. Not gonna lock in rates that heavy yet, but duration should be better. Definitely ingredients for heavy snow with very steep mid-upper lapse rates, strong forcing for ascent (and very strong omega well enough aligned with DGZ), and solid moisture.

 

 

 

 

 

 

lol...  5 weeks ago, we'd be losing it at this alone

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59 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Hard to get hyped up on a wet noodle turd with a waa front coming in causing a melt.

You could be right. Sometimes we get southern Ohio weather too. But it's okay too hope to  maybe pull a quick 3"-5" er out of these set ups every now and than.

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

You could be right. Sometimes we get southern Ohio weather too. But it's okay too hope to  maybe pull a quick 3"-5" er out of these set ups every now and than.

I'd be thrilled to get 3" - any more than that would be amazing. Sure, it's not going to get super cold afterward and it's going to be really wet with marginal temps, but, for me, anything beats the CAD I've had to endure the past 2 weeks. 

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1 hour ago, McHenrySnow said:

I'd be thrilled to get 3" - any more than that would be amazing. Sure, it's not going to get super cold afterward and it's going to be really wet with marginal temps, but, for me, anything beats the CAD I've had to endure the past 2 weeks. 

haha I know your a winter lover and Im sorry you've missed out on this pattern. For me over here in the GTA I will take this 2-5" wet snow on Sunday night/monday morning and hope its one of the last ones of the season. I hate March/April 2-4" slop that melt by 2pm and makes everything wet and muddy (I know its going to happen even if I dont want it to haha) 

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1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

haha I know your a winter lover and Im sorry you've missed out on this pattern. For me over here in the GTA I will take this 2-5" wet snow on Sunday night/monday morning and hope its one of the last ones of the season. I hate March/April 2-4" slop that melt by 2pm and makes everything wet and muddy (I know its going to happen even if I dont want it to haha) 

I would have preferred to cash in earlier, but I’ll take it whenever I can get it. I’m so sad it’s going to get above freezing soon! 

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Quote
Saturday night through Thursday...

Forecast Highlights:
* Accumulating snow and travel impacts likely Sunday through
  Sunday evening, with some heavier snow rates possible
* Snowfall amounts forecast 1-3", though a swath of 3-4" continues
  to appear possible north of I-80
* Pattern change to milder conditions, Monday through Wednesday,
  with snow and ice melt during the daytime

There haven`t been any noteworthy changes in the forecast from the
previous full issuance, with the focus on yet another round of
accumulating snow on Sunday, this time a wetter snow than most of
the events during this remarkable stretch.

Saturday evening will be the last chilly (mainly teens) one for a
bit coming out of departing high pressure. Cloud cover is a bit
uncertain and will determine if some favored outlying spots can
get colder than forecast lows. Temperatures should remain steady
or slowly rise the rest of the night as warm advection ramps up in
advance of Sunday`s system.

A sharp short-wave trough will eject out of the Central Plains and
induce a robust low-level wind response, further increasing warm
advection and isentropic ascent. The warm advection pattern will
also steepen mid-upper level lapse rates. Guidance remains in
decent overall agreement in the big picture, a relatively weak
surface low approaching from the west and then tracking across
southern or central Lake Michigan. The NAM, as is fairly typical
at this range, appears to be a bit of a stronger and farther
north/northwest outlier with the synoptic system and surface low
track. See some similarities in this set-up to that of February
4th, which had a couple rounds of heavy to very heavy snow despite
a less than ideal surface low track. Aiding in this somewhat
similar scenario will the extensive, deep snowpack across the
entire region, and antecedent dry air mass aloft left in the wake
of the departing surface high.

 

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As Ricky has mentioned a few times now, there are some similarities to the Feb 4 system (that produced widespread TSSN). Seeing thunderstorms with it already out over the Pacific, which is a good indicator of the steep lapse rates aloft. The dynamics with this look really good despite the trough being positively tilted, its 60KT LLJ will be tapping into some Gulf moisture, too.

1300481133_ScreenShot2021-02-19at12_13_59PM.png.936768729dcc4938ff03ff5d68bf8b59.png

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