Ralph Wiggum

February 15-16 Event

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Under 5 days now and another storm threat. Guidance moving towards more of a coastal system for this period that travels from the GOM into the Tenn/Ohio Valley area then redevlops off the Mid Atl Coast. Miller A/B hybrid. NAO and AO are moving into neutral and is a classic Archambault storm. Mixed signals on precip type for now but some form of frozen is clearly looking likely. Discuss here.

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This one reminds me a lot of the set up of the December storm which would have played out a lot better of it wasn't December. The amount of sleet showing up so far is concerning but also could be noise with the big pv over top. Early thoughts are 4-8" level with a lot of sleet while central pa gets jacked. Should be all frozen though and this event at the very least should really solidify the glacier before any potential meltdown. Let's hope this one can cap off one hell of a February first half! 

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GFS is really something. Heavy snow and 10F up here in Berks Tuesday morning. Warm layer moving in quick though. Regardless, it's an all frozen event for most. If the press is real, I could see many staying all snow for the interior. If not, it's a 6-8" thump to ice. Not a long-duration storm, only 10-12 hours

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prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

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3 minutes ago, Newman said:

GFS is really something. Heavy snow and 10F up here in Berks Tuesday morning. Warm layer moving in quick though. Regardless, it's an all frozen event for most. If the press is real, I could see many staying all snow for the interior. If not, it's a 6-8" thump to ice. Not a long-duration storm, only 10-12 hours

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prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

I know its a few days out still but that Freezing rain threat is real, id prefer snow but id take sleet any day over freezing rain with those temps

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13 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

With surface temps this cold, we need this to be all snow. Sleet/ZR at 15-20F would not be pleasant.

I bet as we get closer models trend warmer at the surface towards the city. Probably end up like 27 at onset going up to 32-33. Obv this changes if it’s a strung out mess...LV different story I just don’t see Philly sitting below 20 degrees during a precip event. That ain’t happening though it’s nice to dream

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16 hours ago, SnowLover22 said:

Yikes

Gfs says enjoy having no power for a while

zr_acc.us_state_ne_s.png

....OR well water...

AND...NO “terlet” (say’eth Archie Bunker)!!

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6 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I would pay big money for another 1994...

Same. Call me sick and twisted but aside from the damage and disruptions that was the most beautiful and surreal environment I've ever seen this area transformed into. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Same. Call me sick and twisted but aside from the damage and disruptions that was the most beautiful and surreal environment I've ever seen this area transformed into. 

Hi Ralph. I heard nothing about the Euro last night. Was it icy? The 6z GFS looked icy.

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30 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Hi Ralph. I heard nothing about the Euro last night. Was it icy? The 6z GFS looked icy.

Was a big ticket snow event topped with ice for Thurs-Fri. Honestly not sure what to trust at this point. Monday was originally supposed to be the coldest day of the winter in 4 years and now looks like the mildest day of the week (if you consider mid 30s mild). Topsy-turvy week ahead. 

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What looked like a lock for a cutter is now being modeled differently on guidance with the NAO not really relaxing. Heather A system for Tuesday now in jeopardy. Model mayhem to the extreme. GFS has 1994ish ice storm while other guidance says cold rain early week. I know I am mish-moshing the systems here in this post/thread but the uncertainty is extremely high for this period

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Same. Call me sick and twisted but aside from the damage and disruptions that was the most beautiful and surreal environment I've ever seen this area transformed into. 

There is a really good documentary on an ice storm Montreal went through in the nineties, it's worth taking a look at.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Same. Call me sick and twisted but aside from the damage and disruptions that was the most beautiful and surreal environment I've ever seen this area transformed into. 

I was in college in Shippensburg, so all I really remember in 94 was having classes shutdown for the week and getting wasted.

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3 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

There is a really good documentary on an ice storm Montreal went through in the nineties, it's worth taking a look at.

I drove through the aftermath heading to Montreal for Valentines day.  it was 1998.  Large utility power line structures crumpled to the ground under weight of the ice.

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2 hours ago, hazwoper said:

I drove through the aftermath heading to Montreal for Valentines day.  it was 1998.  Large utility power line structures crumpled to the ground under weight of the ice.

My Dad worked for PECO. Spent 2 weeks in Upstate New York helping fix everything up there. He said it was like 1994 X 10 up there! 

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Honestly the flood threat is now more intriguing than any winter threat next week unless you're in the Poconos. Brutal trends the last 24 hours.  But if the gfs and cmc are correct and we see 2 separate 1" basin wide rain storms, we could see some serious flooding. Pretty disappointing developments though coming off a -5sd ao. Maybe late month into March will deliver, but I think we slide into an early spring pattern after next week.

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Honestly the flood threat is now more intriguing than any winter threat next week. Brutal trends the last 24 hours.  But if the gfs and cmc are correct and we see 2 separate 1" basin wide rain storms, we could see some serious flooding. Pretty disappointing developments though coming off a -5sd ao. Maybe late month into March will deliver, but I think we slide into an early spring pattern after next week.

You're taking that route so early when models have been all over the place? 

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14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Honestly the flood threat is now more intriguing than any winter threat next week unless you're in the Poconos. Brutal trends the last 24 hours.  But if the gfs and cmc are correct and we see 2 separate 1" basin wide rain storms, we could see some serious flooding. Pretty disappointing developments though coming off a -5sd ao. Maybe late month into March will deliver, but I think we slide into an early spring pattern after next week.

How much would it cost me to make this happen :devilsmiley:

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16 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

You're taking that route so early when models have been all over the place? 

Can't ignore that the se ridge has been significantly under forecasted the last two weeks. It's why dc has failed. As we lose the blocking, it makes sense for it to flex further as a response and with the pv not pressing s as it was, there's nothing to prevent the warm air from scouring out the air mass. Hopefully the pv trends stronger, further s, and the se ridge isn't as strong but I really don't like what I see anymore. Good chance tomorrow is the most frozen of the 3 events next week now.

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

You're taking that route so early when models have been all over the place? 

True, they still are all over the place. 12z GFS looks icy. NYC forum says UKMet has sleet?

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Can't ignore that the se ridge has been significantly under forecasted the last two weeks. It's why dc has failed. As we lose the blocking, it makes sense for it to flex further as a response and with the pv not pressing s as it was, there's nothing to prevent the warm air from scouring out the air mass. Hopefully the pv trends stronger, further s, and the se ridge isn't as strong but I really don't like what I see anymore. Good chance tomorrow is the most frozen of the 3 events next week now.

I don't see the big flood threat, at all.  There is no massive warmup shown anywhere, and it would take one along with far more rain then presently projected to cut through what we have on the ground at present.  I think you're overstating the concern.

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19 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

I don't see the big flood threat, at all.  There is no massive warmup shown anywhere, and it would take one along with far more rain then presently projected to cut through what we have on the ground at present.  I think you're overstating the concern.

Ensembles seem to think there's a threat. Obviously it's greater on the gefs but naefs still shows some concern:

https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs?Lat=40&Lon=-77&Zoom=7

 

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