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February 14-16 Winter Storm


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1 minute ago, LansingWeather said:

I get it, but thats not the majority of the forum. I had said it seems to mostly miss the great lakes, if Im wrong i'm wrong. Im not tracking this storm, was just noting how crazy massive the warnings are and how it sweeps under my home area.

St.Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Toronto all look to get 4"+ from this with some of those cities also looking at 8"+ 

Pretty weird thing to complain that its missing most of this board when its one of the most spread the wealth storms this winter. Probably should have started off with the fact that its missing your backyard so you don't care for it instead of trying to say its a nothing storm for the sub.  

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4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Always fun to take the time to post on here along with [mention=1610]purduewx80[/mention] and any other NWS mets that post here and on other subs, and see others saying they'd have no problem defunding the NWS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If that person wasn't deleted they should be. This subforum doesn't need that shit.

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6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

St.Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Toronto all look to get 4"+ from this with some of those cities also looking at 8"+ 

Pretty weird thing to complain that its missing most of this board when its one of the most spread the wealth storms this winter. Probably should have started off with the fact that its missing your backyard so you don't care for it instead of trying to say its a nothing storm for the sub.  

I think he just quickly glanced at the nws warnings map and assumed it was missing michigan. Can never assume without looking at the current trend or models. I dont think he'll make that mistake again lol. All good lansingdewd. Or dewdette.

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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

It has the whole state of indiana getting 8+ lol. Close to a foot at dtw. We'll see if these kuchera maps verify for once. It'll be interesting if we get a classic nam18z overamped run here in a bit.

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54 minutes ago, Dalfy said:

STL's criteria is >=6 inches I believe. They haven't updated their AFD or forecast since this morning at 6, before the NW shift; they were calling 4-6'' which is under their warning criteria. 

"Other potential areas for concern with this forecast are exactly
what the SLRs will be and whether we might be a tad low on snowfall
for Monday. Given the very cold air mass, snow ratios should be high
with dendrites dominating. Present thinking is that storm total snowfall
amounts will range from 2-3 inches in far northeast MO and west
central IL to 4-6 inches encompassing the remainder of the CWA.
These totals agree well with GEFS exceedance guidance using a max
SLR, and are in the 50-90th percentile of the NBM. Noteworthy is
our operational NBM data looked a bit light on QPF for Monday. The
winter weather advisory looks on target for this event considering
the aforementioned expectations and has been expanded to include
the remainder of the northern CWA."

Glass from STL CWA, stuck to his guns in the 1pm update. It's also interesting they're the only CWA to not expand wind chill warnings south of the central portion of their forecast area.


Other potential areas for concern with this forecast are exactly
what the SLRs will be and whether we might be a tad low on snowfall
for Monday. Given the very cold air mass, snow ratios should be high
with dendrites dominating. Present thinking is that storm total snowfall
amounts will range from 2-3 inches in far northeast MO and west
central IL to 4-6 inches encompassing the remainder of the CWA.
These totals agree well with GEFS exceedance guidance using a max
SLR, and are in the 50-90th percentile of the NBM. Noteworthy is
our operational NBM data looked a bit light on QPF for Monday. The
winter weather advisory looks on target for this event considering
the aforementioned expectations and has been expanded to include
the remainder of the northern CWA.

 

 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

St.Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Toronto all look to get 4"+ from this with some of those cities also looking at 8"+ 

Pretty weird thing to complain that its missing most of this board when its one of the most spread the wealth storms this winter. Probably should have started off with the fact that its missing your backyard so you don't care for it instead of trying to say its a nothing storm for the sub.  

bro, my back yard is in Puerto Rico. Couldnt care less, I was just pointing out based on the way the warnings were it was sweeping up to miss most to the east. And wow, a whole 4 inches.

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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Sorry for the ignorance, but at what point would a lake effect snow warning be more appropriate than a WSW?

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

What is your shift schedule coming up?

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Sorry for the ignorance, but at what point would a lake effect snow warning be more appropriate than a WSW?

There could be 100" of snow and it will remain a winter storm watch/warning, since it has the synoptic component.  Could perhaps make an argument to convert to LES headlines sometime on Tuesday since it will be transitioning to pure lake effect then.

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14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

and it still has a funky meso low jut offshore throwing snow back into NE IL and SE WI at the end of the run at 18z Tuesday

 

Cook county IL transformed into southern Erie county NY 

I never recall such a setup , usually any Delta T of 20+ with higher inversions will only last an hour or two behind a low and the band swings into IND

 

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18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I think he just quickly glanced at the nws warnings map and assumed it was missing michigan. Can never assume without looking at the current trend or models. I dont think he'll make that mistake again lol. All good lansingdewd. Or dewdette.

Appreciate it, I did just take a look, only looked on the warning map because it was so crazy. I am not following this storm. I am glad the trends are reeling the storm in for you guys compared to what I saw at a glance. Just annoyed with the hostility.

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10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

It has the whole state of indiana getting 8+ lol. Close to a foot at dtw. We'll see if these kuchera maps verify for once. It'll be interesting if we get a classic nam18z overamped run here in a bit.

The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW...

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2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I feel compelled to post the weeniebell kuchera if nothing else to archive 

image.thumb.png.9f68ff26f9cded71e6a2a14885aefd6b.png

Without thinking twice, I would give up all of next winter to shift that squarely into mby, especially since we're already starting off with good snow depths.

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1 minute ago, LansingWeather said:

Appreciate it, I did just take a look, only looked on the warning map because it was so crazy. I am not following this storm. I am glad the trends are reeling the storm in for you guys compared to what I saw at a glance. Just annoyed with the hostility.

People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie.

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Just now, Stevo6899 said:

People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie.

Are you just visiting Florida, or are you there permanently now? 

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Just now, Stevo6899 said:

People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie.

Ha, for sure! Lansing always seems to miss storms though. Its like it's thing. I did look at GRR and DTX before posting, consensus was 3-4 for Detroit and 1-2 in lansing

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Just now, Powerball said:

Are you just visiting Florida, or are you there permanently now? 

Since covid ive been able to work remotely, so I decided to rent an apartment down here this winter. Been here since nov1. Heading home march 1. Ive lucked out since this winter has been zzzz so far.....nam looks to be a bit SE with the track. Hoping it doesnt start to transfer its energy.

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12 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW...

 Well that's good to hear since those of us in Detroit and on the Northwest side are banking more on these ratios to get our big totals since the better moisture will be off to the SE.

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The NAM giveth and taketh lol

 

Part of what makes it tough is it's hard to pin down when that model is not going to be unstable for this area. Running with roughly what ensemble means show and added detail for lake enhancement probably the way to go for QPF and snow amounts. Figure a 15-20:1 ratio on average and greater than that for lake enhancement.

 

 

 

 

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