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Hoosier

February 14-16 Winter Storm

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Probably not. We all know how they are with warnings lol.

If they were in florida, they wouldn't issue a hurricane watch or warning until the eye was onshore.

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It makes sense from an operational standpoint to protect your low end at this point until more guidance picks up the trend towards a more negatively tilted mid/upper trough, especially since an error of even 0.1 to 0.2 of liquid with 20-30:1 SLRs can result in a pretty sizeable bust. But I will say that the NAM has been absolutely killing it on the east coast at these ranges, beating even the Euro/UK (with the typical caveat about using high-res CAMs cautiously for some winter events). The GFS (and the new version as well) has been trending that way the past few runs as well, so keep a sharp eye out. It wouldn't really surprise me to see some convergence on that solution in the next 12-18 hours.

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1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

If they were in florida, they wouldn't issue a hurricane watch or warning until the eye was onshore.

 Or they would issue a tropical storm warning for like a cat 3 hurricane and then upgrade to hurricane warning the last 2 or 3 hours of the storm.

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4 minutes ago, Snownado said:

NWS saying 8-11 but WPC saying only a 10% chance of 8" in indy.

Without checking myself, are the WPC maps from this morning?  And if not, who cares?  Indy is locked and loaded.

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4 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Yeah, I don't get it. For KSPI:

 

12Z's

 

HRRR- 9.3"

UK(10:1)- 4.4"

GFS- 5.5"

GFS v16- 11.0

NAM- 9.9"

Euro- 7.4"

Canadian- 9.0"

9Z SREF plume Mean- 6.31"

 

 

 

And ILX be like 1-2in sounds good area wide :lol:

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7 minutes ago, blue60007 said:

Impressive 

(sorry, not sure why it made the image so massive)

No description available.

Talk about a spread the wealth system!

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51 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Question why are they outliers when u have the GFSv16,GEM, RGEM , UKMET and both NAMS pretty much in agreement? They could all be wrong but please back up your statement.

Lol, none of those models are as far west as the NAMs. The GEM/RGEM are somewhere in the middle, but the NAMs are, without a doubt, the furthest NW. 

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23 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I mean, latest model trends suggest Metro Detroit could get warning criteria snow out of this.

Or does that not count? 

Dunno, havent been following it at all I'm a bit removed from winter. Just occasionally look at the forecasts from GRR and DTX. Also, i just mean its mostly affecting the eastern fringe and just east of there. I didnt say no one was getting anything. But yeah, if DTW gets warning out of it then thats a win, but I judge things by my hometown, which is posied to get a few inches regardless.

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15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 There are plenty of posters on this board from the Columbus, Cleveland, and Toronto areas. Some Buffalo too. 

I get it, but thats not the majority of the forum. I had said it seems to mostly miss the great lakes, if Im wrong i'm wrong. Im not tracking this storm, was just noting how crazy massive the warnings are and how it sweeps under my home area.

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3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Lol, none of those models are as far west as the NAMs. The GEM/RGEM are somewhere in the middle, but the NAMs are, without a doubt, the furthest NW. 

LOL 

all the the same for my backyard and all show more then 1-2 inches for u. The next time u r optimistic about a storm will be your first time. Enjoy your afternoon.

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12 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

It makes sense from an operational standpoint to protect your low end at this point until more guidance picks up the trend towards a more negatively tilted mid/upper trough, especially since an error of even 0.1 to 0.2 of liquid with 20-30:1 SLRs can result in a pretty sizeable bust. But I will say that the NAM has been absolutely killing it on the east coast at these ranges, beating even the Euro/UK (with the typical caveat about using high-res CAMs cautiously for some winter events). The GFS (and the new version as well) has been trending that way the past few runs as well, so keep a sharp eye out. It wouldn't really surprise me to see some convergence on that solution in the next 12-18 hours.

appreciate the input.

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1 minute ago, LansingWeather said:

I get it, but thats not the majority of the forum. I had said it seems to mostly miss the great lakes, if Im wrong i'm wrong. Im not tracking this storm, was just noting how crazy massive the warnings are and how it sweeps under my home area.

St.Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Toronto all look to get 4"+ from this with some of those cities also looking at 8"+ 

Pretty weird thing to complain that its missing most of this board when its one of the most spread the wealth storms this winter. Probably should have started off with the fact that its missing your backyard so you don't care for it instead of trying to say its a nothing storm for the sub.  

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4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Always fun to take the time to post on here along with [mention=1610]purduewx80[/mention] and any other NWS mets that post here and on other subs, and see others saying they'd have no problem defunding the NWS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If that person wasn't deleted they should be. This subforum doesn't need that shit.

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6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

St.Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Toronto all look to get 4"+ from this with some of those cities also looking at 8"+ 

Pretty weird thing to complain that its missing most of this board when its one of the most spread the wealth storms this winter. Probably should have started off with the fact that its missing your backyard so you don't care for it instead of trying to say its a nothing storm for the sub.  

I think he just quickly glanced at the nws warnings map and assumed it was missing michigan. Can never assume without looking at the current trend or models. I dont think he'll make that mistake again lol. All good lansingdewd. Or dewdette.

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The 18Z HRRR is burying Chicago.  I recall reading that the model has a tendency to overdo lake effect snow.  Even if it's by 20%, the city is looking at almost 20 inches of snow in parts.  

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The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

HRRRNIL_prec_kuchsnow_043.png

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10 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Crazy track for where the warnings and advisories are :blink:

 

lowtrack_ensembles.gif

That is way east of where it will be and also from this morning.

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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

It has the whole state of indiana getting 8+ lol. Close to a foot at dtw. We'll see if these kuchera maps verify for once. It'll be interesting if we get a classic nam18z overamped run here in a bit.

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54 minutes ago, Dalfy said:

STL's criteria is >=6 inches I believe. They haven't updated their AFD or forecast since this morning at 6, before the NW shift; they were calling 4-6'' which is under their warning criteria. 

"Other potential areas for concern with this forecast are exactly
what the SLRs will be and whether we might be a tad low on snowfall
for Monday. Given the very cold air mass, snow ratios should be high
with dendrites dominating. Present thinking is that storm total snowfall
amounts will range from 2-3 inches in far northeast MO and west
central IL to 4-6 inches encompassing the remainder of the CWA.
These totals agree well with GEFS exceedance guidance using a max
SLR, and are in the 50-90th percentile of the NBM. Noteworthy is
our operational NBM data looked a bit light on QPF for Monday. The
winter weather advisory looks on target for this event considering
the aforementioned expectations and has been expanded to include
the remainder of the northern CWA."

Glass from STL CWA, stuck to his guns in the 1pm update. It's also interesting they're the only CWA to not expand wind chill warnings south of the central portion of their forecast area.


Other potential areas for concern with this forecast are exactly
what the SLRs will be and whether we might be a tad low on snowfall
for Monday. Given the very cold air mass, snow ratios should be high
with dendrites dominating. Present thinking is that storm total snowfall
amounts will range from 2-3 inches in far northeast MO and west
central IL to 4-6 inches encompassing the remainder of the CWA.
These totals agree well with GEFS exceedance guidance using a max
SLR, and are in the 50-90th percentile of the NBM. Noteworthy is
our operational NBM data looked a bit light on QPF for Monday. The
winter weather advisory looks on target for this event considering
the aforementioned expectations and has been expanded to include
the remainder of the northern CWA.

 

 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

St.Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Toronto all look to get 4"+ from this with some of those cities also looking at 8"+ 

Pretty weird thing to complain that its missing most of this board when its one of the most spread the wealth storms this winter. Probably should have started off with the fact that its missing your backyard so you don't care for it instead of trying to say its a nothing storm for the sub.  

bro, my back yard is in Puerto Rico. Couldnt care less, I was just pointing out based on the way the warnings were it was sweeping up to miss most to the east. And wow, a whole 4 inches.

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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Sorry for the ignorance, but at what point would a lake effect snow warning be more appropriate than a WSW?

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

What is your shift schedule coming up?

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Sorry for the ignorance, but at what point would a lake effect snow warning be more appropriate than a WSW?

There could be 100" of snow and it will remain a winter storm watch/warning, since it has the synoptic component.  Could perhaps make an argument to convert to LES headlines sometime on Tuesday since it will be transitioning to pure lake effect then.

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14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

and it still has a funky meso low jut offshore throwing snow back into NE IL and SE WI at the end of the run at 18z Tuesday

 

Cook county IL transformed into southern Erie county NY 

I never recall such a setup , usually any Delta T of 20+ with higher inversions will only last an hour or two behind a low and the band swings into IND

 

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18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I think he just quickly glanced at the nws warnings map and assumed it was missing michigan. Can never assume without looking at the current trend or models. I dont think he'll make that mistake again lol. All good lansingdewd. Or dewdette.

Appreciate it, I did just take a look, only looked on the warning map because it was so crazy. I am not following this storm. I am glad the trends are reeling the storm in for you guys compared to what I saw at a glance. Just annoyed with the hostility.

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