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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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7 minutes ago, Greenwald said:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
535 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021
Confidence is medium in the forecast overall, with
greater confidence in the southeast and lower confidence along the
northwestern fringes. The totals occur over a 36 hour period, so we
fall short of warning criteria in our far southeastern CWA. In
collaboration with neighbors, opted to keep a high-end advisory for
now, with potential for upgrade to a warning if the more aggressive
solutions (NAM/ECMWF) look more likely.
The first system will lift in
tonight and exit by Monday afternoon/early evening before the next
system if the GFS/GEM are correct. However, the ECMWF and especially
the NAM keep the precipitation ongoing through that period, and
develop a coupled jet structure right around 00z--which really amps
things up as far as forcing goes. In addition, the ECMWF/NAM also
have a weaker surface high sprawled across the midwest (as opposed
to the GEM/GFS solution), which allows for that secondary low to
lift further northwest as the stronger mid level trough inches
eastward into Monday night/Tuesday.
As far as Thursday`s system goes, both the ECMWF/GFS bring the upper
level trough into the upper Great Lakes, and the subsequent strong
surface low northeastward from the gulf into the lower Great
Lakes/Ohio (the GFS faster and deeper with the system). With a
negatively tilted trough and deepening surface low, I tend to go
with the stronger solution and further northwest track. So have
likely pops in the eastern CWA (mainly along/east of I 69) late
Wednesday night into Thursday evening, and high end chances for the
central CWA (lowest west half). Think this could be a better system
than these first two, but a lot could change by then with this
active short/mid term forecast so will hold off on any further
discussion.

 

So IWX may go to a warning, who knows. Forecasting 3-5 inches for us right now. Also a possible second "better" system on Thursday!

Good grief a better system on Thursday ? So they must be thinking at least 10" for Thurs ?

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ILX late morning discussion mentions nothing on modeling trends or the system, only focused on windchills

 

Quote
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Trimmed I-55 corridor counties and a few nearby counties out of
the wind chill warning due to wind chills rising above -20, and
added to wind chill advisory until noon on Monday. Otherwise, have
trimmed PoPs in east central IL as the light snow creeping into
northeast Missouri in a frontogenetical region should extend into
west central IL this afternoon, but is showing signs weakening and
narrowing as it moves northward. Temperatures are looking on
track with highs in the single digits north of I-70 and lower
teens south. and below zero wind chills widespread today. Wind
chills should generally remain below zero this afternoon,
remaining near 15 below for many areas north of I-70.

 

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24-30 hours until impact and crickets from dtw. I hate to rip them but they are awful. I guess one of these years I'd expect them to improve but that seems like false hope.

 

Editt, i see they have taken down their weather story graphic they added early this am that had a map for 3-6 total.

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31 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Agree

I almost hate to see the nw shift, because it potentially leaves me in a little bit of a no mans land between the heaviest synoptic rates and the longest residence time of the lake band.  OTOH, synoptic snow is more reliable to count on and not so subject to micro shifts, so I feel like the floor on amounts is higher than it was yesterday. 

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10 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

ILX late morning discussion mentions nothing on modeling trends or the system, only focused on windchills

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

still calling for 2 inches at PIA

Yeah I have no clue what ILX is looking at. Not only should there be an advisory area wide but they could honestly about bring warnings up to the IL River. ILX loves to do everything last second but this is pretty ridiculous based on current model trends. Looks like this system could give me a bigger snow than the 2nd system now. 

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2 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

NW like NAM or NW like gfs? 

Ukie still looks good for Indiana and Ohio as does GFS. GEM looks good also.12Z NAM seems furthest NW with mixing in Ohio. Will see what Euro shows. Being on NW fringe not seeing major moves NW from globals.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I almost hate to see the nw shift, because it potentially leaves me in a little bit of a no mans land between the heaviest synoptic rates and the longest residence time of the lake band.  OTOH, synoptic snow is more reliable to count on and not so subject to micro shifts, so I feel like the floor on amounts is higher than it was yesterday. 

You’ll be fine. Bumping up my 4-6” call to 6-12” by the lake and 4-8” inland

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2 hours ago, Air Traffic Control said:

I heard the cry for lurkers to appear...

Lurker from about an hour east of the St. Louis city, and seeing that bright pink bulls eye moving slowly to my location is... Well, as a person who grew up in an island with snow a foreign word [or the precursor to the apocalypse], the amount of hype I'm feeling is beyond ecstatic!!

We still have graupel from last week hanging around - radiant heat has turned the top layer to ice, but it's still majestic to see. About 2" or so - the air not being above freezing since the 5th or so ofFeb helps. Was also a brutal -1°F, too, this morning. I've never been so cold before in my life...

 

Our AFD from yesterday:

"As the main surface system passes south and east of the CWA overnight Sunday into Monday, the probability of accumulating snow ramps up mainly along and south of the I-70 corridor. Upper-level divergence from the trough and mid-level frontogenesis will couple with cold air to produce efficient snow-to-liquid ratios. By the time this system departs the CWA Monday afternoon and evening, snowfall will range from 2-5 inches along and south of the I-70 corridor. I continue to have confidence in these totals, as blended and ensemble guidance continue to focus the greatest snow potential and amounts along this corridor."

Learning moment: never have significant confidence in models >48 hours out, lol. 

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7 minutes ago, Snownado said:

So did things stop trending NW ? Seems like Ohio is back in play again ?

I don't think Ohio has ever been out of play. Bullseye just appears to be shifting west. Significant snowfall still should be expected statewide.

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2 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Is ORD looking to be too far NW to get in on the LES? If it is, and ORD is the standard for reporting “Chicago” snow, does the metro snow get “counted” separately?

Given the NW shift, ORD is now much more in the game for significant lake effect/enhancement.

If ORD were to miss out on the LE, it means noting to the official Chicago snowfall total then.

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