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Tuesday Feb 9th Snow


HoarfrostHubb
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Not sure what NAM biases are for this sort of synoptic evolution. In past diatribes ...I have futilely attempted to encourage folks simmer down, and to consume 72 hour NAM with an extra dose of incredulity, when it comes to fuzzy deep navy blue or even magenta snow-QPF off its west Atlantic/ .. near EC cyclogenesis and track guidance. It just did it on this list gig frankly -

 ... post after post after posts strung together explaining how 'it could actually score a coup this time.'  Lol ..

No but this is not a west Atlantic cyclo - babble low. Nor is it a relay through the outer short range/ .. mid range temporal seam.  

Last night I was intrigued - a little ..I say that in the relative sense - by this critter because it is riding along what I see as a rather enhanced baroclinic region associated with the mean polar boundary.  Right now ( and modeled throughout the week ...) the vagaries of the winds et al have managed to draped some rather breath-taking cold, astride the Canadian side of the U.S. border...  

image.thumb.png.3b27e0c298f461f3ebb8f3bd789d03b8.png

As these 'little critters' zip along ...they subsequently probe plumes of that air mass down; these then mix into and homogenize the air mass quite cold within the mean E. low level wind trading around the underside of the attending polar highs up there ( synoptically suggested in this abv annotation... )

As these ripplet jet maxes that seem innocuous ( and really are in lesser circumstances ) ... zip along, they have enough momentum discontinuity to trigger some restoring inflow lift.  But, because it is flowing into a rather upright ( tendency..) of the elevated frontal slope (think of it like a cold wall as opposed gentler slope), that will maximize psuedo adiabatic instability popsicle headache. Particularly in the 850 to 700 mb sigma depth.  It'll come down to where the SGZ heights situated in the passage ...but ( 1994 ) and other historical examples show that almost non-discerned jet accelerations along these sort of thermally compressed frontal interfaces like you see above - which sets up for tomorrow and also persists through next weekend if you believe the general handling... - have a way of delivering goodies.

It all means these little guys may over-produce.    Over-produce doesn't me 38.7" of snow... it means, there's a like ...I dunno, say 30% top side that's negotiable and probably not really able to be forecast - almost synergistic, via maximizing one or two kinematic process among of a stew of minor events that by weight ... sort of hide them.

( This whole song and dance may play out again later Thursday ... then again later Saturday - this sort of nickel repetition has been pretty persistently in the models, too. )

In summary: this doesn't say where this "maximizes" .. . it just elucidates the enhanced potential/ .. native instabilities that are in place and fertility for event success. I wasn't surprised when I saw some of the overnights start double .2" liq equiv to .4 or even .5" ... Whether this comes N or S along that axis - I yeah good luck... Probably the IBM cluster LOL

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Y'allz ability to disconnect from rationalism and apparent understanding, and still allow a single guidance depiction evoke "dashing" of anything ... is really rather remarkable - lol...

 

We are post-modern in here.  Rationality has died, in fact The Enlightenment is at risk.

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