BxEngine Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Back to the storm....please. Im not moving posts. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Back to the storm....please. Im not moving posts. Can't blame them. If only we had a thread dedicated to historical events 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 854AM Friday the 12th: Have no changes to the Thursday 11th updated post. Added the WPC overnight prob for 3"+ of snow which favors north of LI and lots of zr/ip/r for LI and the NJ coast. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 hours ago, winterwx21 said: I guess I'm in the minority but I love ice. I don't think there's a more beautiful scene than having trees coated with sparkling ice. It looks spectacular. It's quite a marvel to look at from the safety of home but I don't want to be on the roads. Look at the highway disaster in Texas yesterday. Power lines and tree limbs going down are always a concern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, gmendevils8204 said: It's quite a marvel to look at from the safety of home but I don't want to be on the roads. Look at the highway disaster in Texas yesterday. Power lines and tree limbs going down are always a concern too. Texas is in for a hell of a time. Hopefully the warmer guidance is correct and we stay just above freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Nam is really amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 As someone who would be intrigued with the possibility of an ice storm warning criteria event since it's such a novelty around here, they almost never end up coming to fruition. Most of the time they end up as sleet or plain rain with some ice mixed in. You really need surface temperatures in the mid 20's or lower with significant warming at 900mb to get significant icing. Just basing off the 06z soundings but it looks like mostly sleet to me until you get South of Rt 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is really amped It's actually flatter with the trough than the GFS but stronger with the shortwave which should lead to a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: As someone who would be intrigued with the possibility of an ice storm warning criteria event since it's such a novelty around here, they almost never end up coming to fruition. Most of the time they end up as sleet or plain rain with some ice mixed in. You really need surface temperatures in the mid 20's or lower with significant warming at 900mb to get significant icing. Just basing off the 06z soundings but it looks like mostly sleet to me until you get South of Rt 78. The good news is that the storm is in and out by early Wednesday so I would think <.5” for most; still, a very messy time if it were to play out. We just saw what happened in Texas with even <.1” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: The good news is that the storm is in and out by early Wednesday so I would think <.5” for most; still, a very messy time if it were to play out. We just saw what happened in Texas with even <.1” You don;t see all snow for us with tues-wed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, sferic said: You don;t see all snow for us with tues-wed ? We should be up here but I’m more speaking for those who would see ice in the vicinity of 84-95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, sferic said: You don;t see all snow for us with tues-wed ? Doesn’t look likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: The good news is that the storm is in and out by early Wednesday so I would think <.5” for most; still, a very messy time if it were to play out. We just saw what happened in Texas with even <.1” IMO all major roads should be shut down in advance if we have a major crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is really amped Impossible to tell what is going to do from there. It actually has 850's that are not to warm could be a secondary ready to develop (plus the NAM is always amped at 84).. The RGEM does it own thing with light precip basically coming in much earlier monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: IMO all major roads should be shut down in advance if we have a major crippling ice storm. They would be, assuming it was a strong likely hood of a large ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS is ugly. lots of FRZRN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Okay I'm officially concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS is sleetfest verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, mikem81 said: why less freezing rain in the city- mostly sleet there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why less freezing rain in the city- mostly sleet there? Weenie maps are for weenies. That's not just for snow, but for all precip types. The soundings mostly support plenty of sleet and freezing rain for the whole area. Freezing rain is more likely closer to the coast where the cold air is shallower. I would still favor mostly plain rain for the city but the surface temps on the GFS sure give me pause for concern. The GFS is usually too warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Weenie maps are for weenies. That's not just for snow, but for all precip types. The soundings mostly support plenty of sleet and freezing rain for the whole area. You're likely to see a transition zone where you go from mostly sleet to mostly freezing rain, which would be more likely closer to the coast where the cold air is shallower. sounds somewhat like the two events in 2007 (Feb/Mar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, LibertyBell said: sounds somewhat like the two events in 2007 (Feb/Mar) This is about as ugly as you can get. Only good thing is that by this panel most of the precip has already fallen. You can see how the drier air aloft is already working in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: sounds somewhat like the two events in 2007 (Feb/Mar) Those we could deal with better than freezing rain, though I could care less about sleet. I will say that those events, at least the Feb one, were big snow events elsewhere, like out in PA, not sure what the deal is with this. Sleet, although less than ZR, is just a pain. But the weather doesn't care what I think....darn it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: sounds somewhat like the two events in 2007 (Feb/Mar) March 94 had a big sleet event as well, it capped off that famous winter. There may have been some snow at the start, no one much talks about it; gets lost in the other epic storms that year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Difficult to comprehend what the models are spiting out. A weak LP is basically cutting into an artic banana high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 hours ago, jr461 said: Can't blame them. If only we had a thread dedicated to historical events Putting current storms into historical context adds to an interesting discussion in my view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Difficult to comprehend what the models are spiting out. A weak LP is basically cutting into an artic banana high All I can see from reading the NWS is unsettled weather of the most miserable kind. For days it seems. Never seen anything like prolonged days of sleet and freezing rain. This has potential to be umm, bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I see 12z UKMET is giving us a lot of snow monday night into tuesday. Just another solution in this difficult setup. Anything from rain to snow to a lot of ice is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: All I can see from reading the NWS is unsettled weather of the most miserable kind. For days it seems. Never seen anything like prolonged days of sleet and freezing rain. This has potential to be umm, bad. I believe the fact that models have picked up on an additional wave of precip for Monday has forced the trough to get stuck to the west of the area and keeps upper levels warm. The HP in canda still brings in colder air at the surface but not until Tuesday (as the very weak LP monday Monday ends up in the Lakes region and keep the flow aloft out of the SW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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