Super Bowl Sunday Snow Show

[John1122]

Coach B's report reflects the HRRR accurately showing the changeover there in Middle Tennessee south of Nashville. 

[Stovepipe]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Higher DBZ returns aimed right at me. On high grav. beer 3 now. Will update when those returns are overhead. 

Wake up from that high gravity beer haze bro, we gonna need some obs!

[1234snow]

One observation I will make is the lack of convection along the Gulf coast. Only one lone supercell moving ashore in Florida. So, moisture transport getting shut off shouldn’t be an issue with this one. But this does seem to be a different scenario than with true a Miller A setup.

[PowellVolz]

MRX starting to come around




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[Shocker0]

Just starting here NW of Crossville

[Dsty2001]

Still wondering what is with the snow hole near Greene Co on the models, the temps already fallen here to 37 and seeing some spotty snow outside.

[dwagner88]

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

If you're down to 34 I'm surprised you're not fully snowing yet. There must be a warm nose  below 850. 

I think you may be right. Back to 100% liquid and temp is 35.1. Let’s see if it drops again with heavier precip. In traditional southern valley fashion, it appears that Dalton and Rome are changing over, while we get rain. The shield has been raised. 

[fountainguy97]

Wind event in full force here. My station is in a terrible spot for wind  in our backyard and just hit a gust of 23.  Easily 30+mph just then. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Still wondering what is with the snow hole near Greene Co on the models, the temps already fallen here to 37 and seeing some spotty snow outside.

Apparently suggesting Downsloping.

[Coach B]

Ground now totally covered. Probably between a quarter and half an inch. Temp 33. I'm southwest of Lewisburg at about 1000 feet.

[Stovepipe]

The folks at MRX are way more intelligent than I am when it comes to weather, so who am I to question this.  But modeling be damned, I'm in for rain then more rain *possibly* mixed with snow after 5am.  

[ShawnEastTN]

MRX discussion update:

"
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 1025 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 .UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... Downsloping SE flow has kept most of the region dry this evening with most of the precip falling as virga. There has been occasional light rain observed in the far S Valley with snow and sleet at times in SW NC. Latest RAP soundings have further backed off on the warm nose except for along the E TN mountains into extreme SE TN and SW NC where some warming occurs around 850 mb before 08Z, but due to all the virga, expect sleet and ice amounts to be very light on the order of a trace to 0.04 inches. We are essentially running out of time to see much mixed precip before the colder air arrives. The mid/upper shortwave responsible for bringing the colder air will cross the region from 06-10Z with an associated cold front pushing across the region. As this occurs, the region will get under a coupled upper jet structure between the right entrance of a 130-140 kt 300 mb jet streak over the central Appalachians and the left exit of a 120-130 kt 300 mb jet streak over GA/SC. This will lead to strong Q vector convergence and frontogenetic forcing as the shortwave/cold front crosses the region, so expect any rain/mix to quickly change to snow in the post frontal CAA, first on the Plateau through SW VA after 05Z, then across the valley through the rest of the area from W to E. Despite the dynamics, HREF guidance shows this band of moderate to heavy snow moving through pretty rapidly. This fast movement combined with the limited precip earlier this evening has led to decreased snowfall accumulations forecasted across SW NC, the E TN mountains, and the valley. However, HREF guidance points to the band pivoting across the N Plateau through SW VA the longest, so slightly increased snowfall forecast amounts up there overnight. The current warnings and advisories remain unchanged for tonight"

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[John1122]

I hate the wait. I should be about an hour from it getting going here. 

[bearman]

Well This makes since since they just increased the snow totals in the central valley 
MRX
Despite the dynamics, HREF guidance shows this band of moderate to
heavy snow moving through pretty rapidly. This fast movement
combined with the limited precip earlier this evening has led to
decreased snowfall accumulations forecasted across SW NC, the E TN
mountains, and the valley. However, HREF guidance points to the
band pivoting across the N Plateau through SW VA the longest, so
slightly increased snowfall forecast amounts up there overnight.

 

 

[Kasper]

Now the weather channel app has me at 1-3 inches from nothing 

[Stovepipe]

02z HRRR:

[Kasper]

Just now, Stovepipe said:

02z HRRR:

I headed out to get smokes beer or should I just call 911.

[Stovepipe]

Just now, Kasper said:

I headed out to get smokes beer or should I just call 911.

If you're running low, I say call em.  They haven't explicitly stated that that is not an emergency this time!

[PowellVolz]

MRX discussion update:

"
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 1025 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 .UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... Downsloping SE flow has kept most of the region dry this evening with most of the precip falling as virga. There has been occasional light rain observed in the far S Valley with snow and sleet at times in SW NC. Latest RAP soundings have further backed off on the warm nose except for along the E TN mountains into extreme SE TN and SW NC where some warming occurs around 850 mb before 08Z, but due to all the virga, expect sleet and ice amounts to be very light on the order of a trace to 0.04 inches. We are essentially running out of time to see much mixed precip before the colder air arrives. The mid/upper shortwave responsible for bringing the colder air will cross the region from 06-10Z with an associated cold front pushing across the region. As this occurs, the region will get under a coupled upper jet structure between the right entrance of a 130-140 kt 300 mb jet streak over the central Appalachians and the left exit of a 120-130 kt 300 mb jet streak over GA/SC. This will lead to strong Q vector convergence and frontogenetic forcing as the shortwave/cold front crosses the region, so expect any rain/mix to quickly change to snow in the post frontal CAA, first on the Plateau through SW VA after 05Z, then across the valley through the rest of the area from W to E. Despite the dynamics, HREF guidance shows this band of moderate to heavy snow moving through pretty rapidly. This fast movement combined with the limited precip earlier this evening has led to decreased snowfall accumulations forecasted across SW NC, the E TN mountains, and the valley. However, HREF guidance points to the band pivoting across the N Plateau through SW VA the longest, so slightly increased snowfall forecast amounts up there overnight. The current warnings and advisories remain unchanged for tonight"

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Now it’s moving too fast. I mean... whatever happens has nothing to do with their predictions but it’s like they are Hell bent on dying on that hill. They could be 100% dead on but their forecast doesn’t match the mods.


.

[bearman]

4 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Now the weather channel app has me at 1-3 inches from nothing 

You are going to need a chiropractor in the morning to treat that neck.

[McMinnWx]

Same here. TWC app showing 1-3 inches here. 

[bearman]

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

MRX

fast movement combined with the limited precip earlier this evening has led to decreased snowfall accumulations forecasted

Did they not state that there would be limited precipitation in their early disco and now they are using it as a reason for limiting snowfall?  Maybe I am being to hard on them.

[PowellVolz]

The 3z HRRR is about to pound the valley


.

[PowellVolz]

The 3z HRRR is about to pound the valley


.

Right at 5” in the valley by 8z and it’s still snowing


.

[Shocker0]

I guess it's all snow here but it was pelting my jacket almost like sleet or rain. I guess just from where it's such a wet snow. It's definitely  coming down good though

[Shocker0]

[Shocker0]

1 minute ago, Blue Moon said:

What elevation are you, @Shocker0? Isn't that close to 2000 feet on the Plateau? 

Yes, my house is at 1980'. Crossville in town is about 1850' and I believe Monterey is the same.

[bearman]

5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

The 3z HRRR is about to pound the valley

Can you post that map?

[John1122]

The radar looks like rain changing to snow from south to north. You won't see that very often. It's mainly because of heavier precip rates moving South to North but it looks neat on radar. 

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, bearman said:

Can you post that map?