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Super Bowl Sunday Snow Show


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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not sure why, but the TT site just flat hammers a larger area.  Has 8" for Chattanooga.

3km not as generous, but definitely a strong signal. It’s more useful short term anyways.

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MRX seems skeptical (and rightfully so after the flip flopping) on the Sat night/Sun morning storm.  Here’s the portion of you their disco that pertains to this storm:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
400 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

1. Snow chances have increased Sat night and Sun morning, but
confidence remains very low with how this system will evolve.

2. Dry with near to slightly below normal temps Sun afternoon
warming above normal Mon.

3. Active weather next week with difficult to time precip chances,
but milder temps early in the week cool below normal mid/late week.

Discussion:

Friday Night and Saturday...

Fast, progressive upper level flow will remain across the TN Valley
during this time at the base of broad troughing covering much of the
northern tier of the country. Weak surface high pressure quickly
moving across the Midwest and OH Valley will provide dry conditions
and temps just below normal. Lows Fri night will dip into the 25-30
degree range with highs Sat in the upper 40`s to near 50.

Saturday Night and Sunday...

Well, this period has once again become more interesting as the 12Z
NAM and deterministic ECMWF have trended toward the deterministic
GFS and GEFS ensemble means in phasing northern and southern stream
energy which gives the possibility of accumulating snow Sat night
into Sun morning. However, the ECMWF ensemble mean, deterministic
CMC, and CMC ensemble means still keep this energy separate leading
to a drier forecast. Regarding the synoptic details, a fast moving
northern stream mid/upper shortwave will progress across the Midwest
states Sat night while a southern stream shortwave moves along the
Gulf coast states with a surface response near the FL Panhandle. The
N stream shortwave further deepens the broader longwave trough and
sends a piece of true arctic air across the Midwest and Great Lakes
in its wake, but the different solutions among the guidance stem
from whether or not the N and S stream shortwaves can phase before
all of the energy moves to our E. Consensus is for 850 mb temps to
be -3 to -4 deg C Sat night with surface temps several degrees above
freezing early in the night as the right entrance region of a 130-
140 kt H3 jet associated with the northern shortwave induces
strengthening warm, moist advection and isentropic lift. The
strength and duration of moisture advection and overall forcing will
be determined by whether or not the features actually phase, so
stayed with NBM slight chance PoPs Sat night/Sun morning, but
blended WPC QPF with the GFS/ECMWF QPF to take into account some of
the higher QPF probabilities. In terms of snowfall amounts, the
aforementioned surface temps above freezing at the onset will lead
to a rain/snow mix, but expect a quick transition to snow by late
evening as the lower levels cool, possibly aided by dynamic cooling
and wet bulbing. The temp profile and WPC/GFS/ECMWF blended QPF
yields 0.5 to 2 inches of snow, which is a reasonable starting point
based on the flip flopping guidance. This system will quickly exit
NE Sun afternoon with dry conditions and highs only in the low/mid
40`s behind the associated cold front.


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3 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Lol the forecast mentions nothing yet.  Hate to be ones trying to forecast this coming weekend and week. 

Well in fairness this might be just an eastern half of TN event, so if I were them I’d wait a cycle or two and casually mention it as a possibility this evening 

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As usual, surface temps are marginal for the eastern valley.
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This usually isn’t something we would normally say on here but marginal right now is ok considering one of the themes this winter has been high temperatures projected too high several times this year. Especially the last couple of weeks.


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