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Super Bowl Sunday Snow Show


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6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

MRX mentioned an inverted trough up the valley. If that is correct I can see the extra forcing helping with dynamic cooling. If that’s the case I can see this potentially busting on the high side.

 

 

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Was mainly kidding.  LOL.  Great write-up this evening by MRX BTW.  Also mentioned the potential in the LR as well.  Sounds like they are using ensembles quite a bit which speaks to the inconsistency of operational and even short range modeling.  

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MRX mentioned an inverted trough up the valley. If that is correct I can see the extra forcing helping with dynamic cooling. If that’s the case I can see this potentially busting on the high side.
 
 
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Just to add on this.... if there is an boundary laying across the valley it should help limit downsloping some.


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14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That said, the HRRR is at the end of it's range on the extended 18z version where it's really really unreliable. It currently shows MBY with .1 precip from this with all other modeling showing .5-.7ish.

That Model overall has done poorly for this area. Until it improves, definitely not a fan.

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Was mainly kidding.  LOL.  Great write-up this evening by MRX BTW.  Also mentioned the potential in the LR as well.  Sounds like they are using ensembles quite a bit which speaks to the inconsistency of operational and even short range modeling.  

Kidding about what? I must have missed something. LOL


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SWS here. 
 

...Winter Storm Watch for the Far East Tennessee Mountain,southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina from Saturday evening through Noon Sunday... ...Snowfall Expected Across Much of the Tennessee Valley and Plateau Saturday Night and Early Sunday Morning... A weather system will sweep through the area Saturday night through Sunday morning bringing rain and snowfall to much of the region. Precipitation will begin as a wintry mix Saturday evening becoming all snow early Sunday morning. Periods of moderate snow is possible at times between midnight and daybreak Sunday. Snowfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected across the Mountains with 1 to 3 inches possible across much of the Tennessee valley and Plateau. Travel conditions may deteriorate Saturday night, especially across the secondary roads, bridges and overpasses. Sunday morning commute may be difficult. Confidence of snowfall forecast is moderate to high across the higher elevations, especially areas within the watch area. Low confidence of snowfall totals across the Tennessee valley. The forecast and snowfall totals will continue to be refined, so stay tuned for the latest forecasts.  Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further details or updates.

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I don't think temps will be a big issue with the precip on the back side.  I am just not sure that precip amounts are going to be high enough to get 2-4."  With it being at night, that could help.  Just seems like the overall system is less juicy.  The mountains usually outperform valley locations here in terms of precip amounts - should have mentioned that earlier.  

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6 hours ago, Coach B said:

Interesting. I think for official measurements you are supposed to use a snowboard and sweep it clean every six hours. I've used a snowboard for several years now and it can vary quite a bit from old school ground measurements. If the ground is frozen solid, you'll get more with a ground measurement. If its warm and/or wet, you get significantly more on the snowboard. 

Here's Iowa State's discussion of compaction.  Pretty interesting and it just adds more value to their awesome meteogram page.  I have it up in a browser tab 24/7.

https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/compaction.html

 

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