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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Left rear quad looks pretty favorably placed. Hope this pretty much holds as is.

These are some of my favorite types of events when they materialize. They are quick hitting, but they come in like a banshee and can just dump for 6-10 hrs and scoot on out. I was looking at PWAT Anomalies for the time frame and they jump to 140-180%, or ~1 StDev above normal for the entire area. Classic for a solid high level advisory to WSW type event. Nothing over the top, but above the premise for a lower end event. Keep the 5H progression tilting negative and it'll be a very white Sunday for everyone. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

These are some of my favorite types of events when they materialize. They are quick hitting, but they come in like a banshee and can just dump for 6-10 hrs and scoot on out. I was looking at PWAT Anomalies for the time frame and they jump to 140-180%, or ~1 StDev above normal for the entire area. Classic for a solid high level advisory to WSW type event. Nothing over the top, but above the premise for a lower end event. Keep the 5H progression tilting negative and it'll be a very white Sunday for everyone. 

Just juicing up a bit pretty much gets the whole region into the good precip shield. Maybe just wishful thinking, but I cant see this amplifying too much more given the flow and the configuration at h5. Maybe a slight tick NW, which is about all I can afford here lol.

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM actually does get snow into the metro area and MD. 

Not sure we want more of a jump in one run this early...

10D0FD0A-5E8D-4B54-9A28-3643D11D9624.gif.92b898361ca43e486e819a549e2d8906.gif

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Damn Mappy you should not have deleted that post. The trolling that I had lined up for it was legendary.

She did him a favor actually. 

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Shortwave is not as sharp and dampens as it comes east. Weak pos this run.

:lol: it's over if the shortwave dampens like that not going to make anyone happy

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Shortwave is not as sharp and dampens as it comes east. Weak pos this run.

Hopefully the EPS disagrees, although I know we are getting to that time where ops have as much or more weight.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

But you can say this 9 out of10 times there is a chance of snow. Be adventurous and daring.

Chiefs by 17!

I didn’t jackpot either of the storms this year. I got 10 and 12” and Both times some places north of me got ~40!  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t jackpot either of the storms this year. I got 10 and 12” and Both times some places north of me got ~40!  

In our region, east of the higher terrain, you jackpotted.

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6 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Hopefully the EPS disagrees, although I know we are getting to that time where ops have as much or more weight.

I expect it will be more in line with the rest of guidance at 0z. One way or the other lol.

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10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

:lol: it's over if the shortwave dampens like that not going to make anyone happy

That is correct. It is not really an issue of the track so much on the Euro.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I expect it will be more in line with the rest of guidance at 0z. One way or the other lol.

Idk man I think you would agree with this sentiment but the Euro hasn’t been itself as of late. Maybe I’m wrong or maybe there’s a compromise in between more amped models vs Euro/CMC combo but those developing winds at 250 just scream some awesome moisture transport so I think regardless we have some good advection and some good quality rates even if the storm is progressive in nature.

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10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Idk man I think you would agree with this sentiment but the Euro hasn’t been itself as of late. Maybe I’m wrong or maybe there’s a compromise in between more amped models vs Euro/CMC combo but those developing winds at 250 just scream some awesome moisture transport so I think regardless we have some good advection and some good quality rates even if the storm is progressive in nature.

When it comes to the LR the euro will always be #1 imo. Frankly it sniffs these out much faster than other models. At this range though it is susceptible to ticks in either direction. Seems odd but happens. This really feels like an event where we see an uptick on the euro once inside 48 hours. Idk, just has that setup 

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The Euro didn't surprise me at all with its run . There really wasn't any overamped members in the 12z Eps ensembles . Still a big cluster of lows that slide out ene . Hopefully HH Eps keeps the trends rolling . I personally think the op Euro bumps west as bit more but with the main trough just north of our sw  so close that would have to limit how Close the center lp gets ( it was pressing a bit more se this run). Hopefully the more expansive precip field others have mentioned is in our favor.  My bar imby is 1-2 inch . 

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27 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

When it comes to the LR the euro will always be #1 imo. Frankly it sniffs these out much faster than other models. At this range though it is susceptible to ticks in either direction. Seems odd but happens. This really feels like an event where we see an uptick on the euro once inside 48 hours. Idk, just has that setup 

I will def give you that and agree to it. In all reality last Sunday the Euro showed a very good storm for us come this Sunday, lost it and now is def trending toward the other guidance. 

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ground "truth" is not much different than 12z.

1612764000-VHmLgRDtkks.png

Nope. I did notice the main trough energy in the lakes looks a bit stronger as well . A couple camps in the clustering.  Big spread still being this freaking close in 

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8 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

When does the RGEM come out and give us 33.5” like the last storm? That’s tomorrow night right?


.

Nope. 

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6 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

SREF mean went up pretty significantly 

SREF is another one of those “it’s good to have on our side but don’t rely on it” models. Doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t excite me. SREF’s are always snowy it seems. Gimme that 0z NAM’ing all day!! 

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Just now, jayyy said:

SREF is another one of those “it’s good to have on our side but don’t rely on it” models. Doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t excite me. SREF’s are always snowy it seems. Gimme that 0z NAM’ing all day!! 

I’m not gonna lie back in the day you saw the SREF make a move you knew the NAM or ETA for that matter was getting ready to give us a bomb or a dud. 

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7 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

SREF mean went up pretty significantly 

21z seems worse? Mean snowfall went down around dc and SE of town it dropped significantly. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

SREF is another one of those “it’s good to have on our side but don’t rely on it” models. Doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t excite me. SREF’s are always snowy it seems. Gimme that 0z NAM’ing all day!! 

Plots just came out many are above 4 inches now way more then 15z. Some low members in there also tho big spread 1 to 10 as a max lol

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5 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

SREF mean went up pretty significantly 

WAY more amplified this run.  BTW we know the SREF has crazy biases but it is somewhat useful with trends just as a curiosity in between model runs.  It does tend to trend with the other guidance in general.  

@high risk @MillvilleWx do you happen to know if anyone still even looks at the SREF?  And also...the idea of a short range meso scale ensemble is a great idea imo.  The meso models are needed to pick out features the globals cannot but they are very susceptible to being jumpy which is probably unavoidable when you make them sensitive enough to pick up on meso features.  An ensemble to help eliminate that issue is a great idea...but it seemed the SREF just suffered from having members with crazy biases that skewed them.  Why wasnt there, or is there, an effort to develop a more useful short range ensemble system?  Thanks for any info.  

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