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Feb 7th-9th event


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Been SN to -SN here for the last 2 or 3 hours.  Pixie to quarters and back again but steady.  About an inch so far.  There seems to be a touch more moisture than forecast (doesn't take much with these temps) and the subtle forcing seems to be hanging around longer than forecast.  Returns to the west looking decent so maybe add another inch or 2 by morning if we're really lucky.  Keep the Swoop McClain ripples coming :weenie:

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5 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Been SN to -SN here for the last 2 or 3 hours.  Pixie to quarters and back again but steady.  About an inch so far.  There seems to be a touch more moisture than forecast (doesn't take much with these temps) and the subtle forcing seems to be hanging around longer than forecast.  Returns to the west looking decent so maybe add another inch or 2 by morning if we're really lucky.  Keep the Swoop McClain ripples coming :weenie:

That's an inside comment that most here won't understand. Woke up to quarters gently falling from the sky.

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I core sampled that 2.2" of snow. 0.05" liquid. So yeah...40:1. Still rocking cotton balls here...
Just called in your report to the office. Nice dendies here but only a dusting since we spent much of the night north of the band. The ultra high ratios you got might bode well for later.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Later this afternoon doesn't look too bad near and north of 290/88 up to the WI border, as long as moisture isn't an issue. Best frontogenesis-produced lift in the DGZ focuses in these areas for several hours. There is good right entrance region jet dynamics helping this along. Could be some of those 30:1+ ratios where the banding sets up.156286316_ScreenShot2021-02-08at7_19_08AM.thumb.png.0c088c72ddba721cf011768ce24a68df.png

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I thought we were getting a surprise lake effect band before looking at radar. Hard to tell how much has fallen with what was already on the ground but I can tell the ratios are phenomenal. Might be closing in on an inch? The best banding looks like it was just to my south. 

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

looks like around 2 inches of pure fluff on  the north side of PIA

if a bird farts there will be a blizzard

so it may get interesting later in the week even with a moderate strength system with any wind

 

Yea I did better with this wave then the clipper on Sat. Ha. Easily 2in. Maybe a bit more. GFS seems to want to really push the storm track way south after mid week which is possible but other models are more generous bringing snow pretty north into IL. Nice band coming together across eastern Iowa and Western IL.

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ILX late morning update

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021

Increased PoPs in the western third of CWA over the next few hours
as snow moves in. The current forecast snow/liquid ratios of 19:1 in
the northern part of our CWA may be too low, as precip reports from
last night`s snow indicate snow/liquid ratios of 25:1 or greater.
May increase the ratios, especially over the northern half of the
CWA, resulting in incrementally higher snow totals, but that
won`t change the thinking that a broad 1" of fluffy snow occurs
with this system, with 1-2" south of the I-70 corridor where
higher QPF is expected.

Monitoring our far southeastern counties for the potential of light
freezing drizzle around midnight this evening. No changes to the
forecast yet, but model sounding suggest profiles may lose ice
crystals around that time. However, ascent will be very weak,
reducing confidence in the likelihood of any freezing drizzle
occuring
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Lake effect is very close to the Chicago shore this morning. Some of the guidance yesterday suggested it could come into downtown w/ the synoptic snow this afternoon/eve, but it looks like there may end up being a mesolow that keeps it just offshore. Close call though.

Cedar Rapids to metro Chicago should be in good shape for 2-4". Wouldn't doubt if there are some locations that pick up more than that looking at radar trends and obs in Iowa.

2036896795_ScreenShot2021-02-08at10_38_46AM.png.52cc18a402b487c36f536e10e5cf7861.png

 

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REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1110 AM CST MON FEB 8 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST MON FEB 8 2021  
  
NARROW BAND OF STRONGER FORCING IS PRODUCING RESPECTABLE SNOW  
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WHICH IS DEVELOPING/MOVING RAPIDLY INTO   
EASTERN IOWA. VERY SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL   
BUT GIVEN ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER   
ADVISORY FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.  
  
THE OVERNIGHT SNOW HAD SLRS OF 25-30:1 WHICH PRODUCED AREAS OF 2-3  
INCHES OF SNOW. THE SAME HIGH RATIOS SHOULD BE IN PLAY WITH THIS  
BAND OF STRONG FORCING. THUS EXPECT A SWATH OF 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL  
WITH A BAND OF 3 INCHES.  
  

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