Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, sferic said: @Ericjcrash @snywx @crossbowftw3 Morning thoughts for our respective areas tomorrow? You guys are in way better shape than I am up here, the RGEM is concerning for all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Nam is an outlier in regards to precip amounts Gfs is a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, sferic said: @Ericjcrash @snywx @crossbowftw3 Morning thoughts for our respective areas tomorrow? I like 3-5” for my area. Prob 1-3” for you up in Sullivan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Nam is an outlier in regards to precip amounts Gfs is a few inches Yep NAM on it’s own right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: 3-6 with iso 8 Really for Sullivan? That's on par with NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Nws 5-7" looks good for warned area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, sferic said: Really for Sullivan? That's on par with NYC/LI If the precip shield can really reach this far N/W, yes, otherwise the 1-3 makes more sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I like globals for track and mesos for precip. Gfs is way too low imo. The current 4-7 forecast looks solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 My guess for this would be 5-8” (maybe more like 5-6”) for most with 3-5” far north and west like in Orange and Sussex County. NAM as usual is probably too wet but RGEM hopefully too dry. Should be a nice moderate type event. I saw a reference to 2/7/03 elsewhere and that’s probably a decent analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: If the precip shield can really reach this far N/W, yes, otherwise the 1-3 makes more sense Which model is favorable to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On Pivotal which model is the equivalent to Tidbits CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, sferic said: On Pivotal which model is the equivalent to Tidbits CMC? GDPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Nws 5-7" looks good for warned area... If you blend NAM with other models is a reasonable forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Which model is favorable to us? Just the NAM really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: GDPS. Thank you Don ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 26 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: 3-6 with iso 8 Not for areas N of 84.. 4” is prob the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, snywx said: Not for areas N of 84.. 4” is prob the max. With the disclaimer that if the heavier shield comes further in we can get into 3-6* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Thank you Don ! You’re welcome. Hopefully, the snow shield will be more expansive on the other guidance and on later runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: With the disclaimer that if the heavier shield comes further in we can get into 3-6* I actually think immediately nw of the city will do better than the city and LI will do the best, the city due to UHI struggles a bit when temps arent that cold and precipitation is not super heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 GFS has been somewhat consistently so far this winter too far SE with the precip/banding on last few storms. Even in last storm for NJ, there was a good 30-40 mile difference to NW of best/max banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said: GFS has been somewhat consistently so far this winter too far SE with the precip/banding on last few storms. Even in last storm for NJ, there was a good 30-40 mile difference to NW of best/max banding. This is a different type of storm (fast moving Miller A) there might be a band that sets up nw but I think that will be near the city if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It's the same story pretty much every storm close to the event, Nam too wet and GFS too dry. As usual, take a blend of the models and you have a 3-6 inch type deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Storm Field died? wth, what happened? I think he is alive. He was about 30 when I moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: It's the same story pretty much every storm close to the event, Nam too wet and GFS too dry. As usual, take a blend of the models and you have a 3-6 inch type deal. GFS actually got a little better from 6z. RGEM got much drier, hopefully it just had an off run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 CMC a bit more NW and a bit wetter. Want from 2 to 4 for me. Goalposts narrowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Winds are super gusty up here right now. Was this expected? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Winds are super gusty up here right now. Was this expected? Gusts 20-30 were in the forecast for today so yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 40 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I think he is alive. He was about 30 when I moved. He’s alive, but retired. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Ukie has only 1-3 inches Jeez 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Yep NAM on it’s own right now The NAM is in its own universe right now. Outlier in every sense of the word. Upton is going to have to drop total up this way, all the new model runs are spitting out only 2-3 inches total for my area (Rockland) this afternoon. The 6z Euro had 2 inches, there is pretty good agreement and consensus now. This is shaping up to be a very minor event NW of NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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