stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: That was going to end very well imo. The h5 was just about to pass under us and you can see hints of the precip breaking out in response. DC was going to get more snow after that run ended. It’s depressing looking because the run ended right before the ccb exploded. That upper low and surface position there remind me of the lull in the Feb 11 2010 storm when everyone was freaking out then the upper level low caught up and boom. More amplified also means a nicer front end thump and I’m not that worried about temps it’s truly cold to start. The high res models are picking up on that. I doubt the gfs mid to upper 30s nonsense. Might mix with sleet but so what. So I'm not crazy after all. Weenie reads would have people thinking it was a complete disaster. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Am I missing something? I was under the impression that the NAM was a disaster and then I go look at it and I'm like...huh? 5” on the ground then some sleet and that was about to crash and start dumping again as the slp was captured and tucking and the h5 was very amplified and about to pass into VA. The ccb was about to light up 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was going to end very well imo. The h5 was just about to pass under us and you can see hints of the precip breaking out in response. DC was going to get more snow after that run ended. It’s depressing looking because the run ended right before the ccb exploded. That upper low and surface position there remind me of the lull in the Feb 11 2010 storm when everyone was freaking out then the upper level low caught up and boom. More amplified also means a nicer front end thump and I’m not that worried about temps it’s truly cold to start. The high res models are picking up on that. I doubt the gfs mid to upper 30s nonsense. Might mix with sleet but so what. In a perfect scenario I think we’d like to see a bit more of a surface reflection at 84, but you can start to see it and it will stall as the 500 comes close. That 500 track looks good. Better than the open wave GFS at that point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So I'm not crazy after all. Weenie reads would have people thinking it was a complete disaster. I’m telling you I’ve noticed that any run that shows mixing and people freak out. I got several hours of sleet near IAD in 96. It sleeted into PA in 2003. I got some sleet up here during the psuhoffman storm and briefly during the Feb 11 2010 hecs and for a bit during the 15” March 2018 storm. I loved every one of them. People need to get over seeing a panel with non blue over them during a storm. At least not to the point they ignore the bigger picture. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m telling you I’ve noticed that any run that shows mixing and people freak out. I got several hours of sleet near IAD in 96. It sleeted into PA in 2003. I got some sleet up here during the psuhoffman storm and briefly during the Feb 11 2010 hecs and for a bit during the 15” March 2018 storm. I loved every one of them. People need to get over seeing a panel with non blue over them during a storm. At least not to the point they ignore the bigger picture. Especially if the sleet is during the lull after the WAA anyway. You aren’t “wasting” much precip. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM is south and thumping at 66. Would be a great jump IMO. Oh yeah. Its tasty AF. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’m telling you I’ve noticed that any run that shows mixing and people freak out. I got several hours of sleet near IAD in 96. It sleeted into PA in 2003. I got some sleet up here during the psuhoffman storm and briefly during the Feb 11 2010 hecs and for a bit during the 15” March 2018 storm. I loved every one of them. People need to get over seeing a panel with non blue over them during a storm. At least not to the point they ignore the bigger picture. Let’s be fair here. Any runs that show a more southern outcome ... you freak out. That’s when you somehow stop seeing the bigger picture. But I totally understand. This is an imby sport. But it works both ways. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is south and thumping at 66. Would be a great jump IMO. Yeah, I'm up to 78 and it looks great so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm up to 78 and it looks great so far How's it look compared to 18Z? I'm only on TT and it's not out too far there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is south and thumping at 66. Would be a great jump IMO. Looks like the primary is dying in NE KY. 999 east of ORF at 84. I wish it went past 84 because it looked like it was about to light up like the 4th of July. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’m telling you I’ve noticed that any run that shows mixing and people freak out. I got several hours of sleet near IAD in 96. It sleeted into PA in 2003. I got some sleet up here during the psuhoffman storm and briefly during the Feb 11 2010 hecs and for a bit during the 15” March 2018 storm. I loved every one of them. People need to get over seeing a panel with non blue over them during a storm. At least not to the point they ignore the bigger picture. Weird you got sleet in Feb 11, 2010. I don't remember any sleet with that one. Seemed like a straight cold powder bomb, but maybe I'm not remembering right. Maybe there was a lull with sleet in the middle. I think recency bias is part of the issue. I don't remember sleet in any of the 2009-2010 storms, and not in the 2016 storm either. I got sleet in 2003, but it was at the end and I was in College Park, which got less (and always seems to) than the surrounding area anyway. You also tend to remember the great part of the storms and the end result more than anything that happened during it, though when you are getting sleeted on, it is agonizing waiting for the changeover. It was torture waiting for the changeover in January 2011, and then it dumped like 8 inches in three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: In a perfect scenario I think we’d like to see a bit more of a surface reflection at 84, but you can start to see it and it will stall as the 500 comes close. That 500 track looks good. Better than the open wave GFS at that point. Even that gfs gave us 4-8” from the wrap around from DC north so... looking at the fgen and 850 winds at 84 hrs and seeing that band running along the PA line back into WV starting to pivot and develop south in WV in response to the upper level low catching up...I think that was going to pivot slowly across N VA and MD in the next 12 hours had that run continued. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm up to 78 and it looks great so far Its gorgeous. Getting ready to tuck at 84. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Especially if the sleet is during the lull after the WAA anyway. You aren’t “wasting” much precip. That would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 And it looks like about 0.5” for DC in QPF from the thump as snow. Then some sleet during the lull before the coastal starts cranking after H84. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Let’s be fair here. Any runs that show a more southern outcome ... you freak out. That’s when you somehow stop seeing the bigger picture. But I totally understand. This is an imby sport. But it works both ways. I'd think a more southern outcome should make us all sweat a little bit...since psu dropped that bit about an outside chance it gets too far south and misses the transfer. @psuhoffman correct me if I interpreted that wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 hmm? snow, rain snow and some warm air push? and snow. sloppy crap ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: How's it look compared to 18Z? I'm only on TT and it's not out too far there yet. Good run but the primary holds on a little longer than 18z. Nice thump then we mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 What is the general consensus regarding the onset of precipitation across all models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: How's it look compared to 18Z? I'm only on TT and it's not out too far there yet. looks about the same to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Edit: Sorry SV maps overdo snow when it’s too warm so I never know how accurate it is for this model 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It depends. If the heaviest band is in northern Md I’d say this run will get an A+ rating. Time will tell. Nam is likely too north with that feature but even if that’s the case look at the mid level winds and h5 track. That’s the northern extent you’re looking at there and it’s about to pivot back southeast. Look at the last 2 frames you can see it happening in WV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Icon is juiced again . Lays down 18" around the m/d line ....20"+ in York . Just now, losetoa6 said: Icon is juiced again . Lays down 18" around the m/d line ....20"+ in York . Looks like almost 18” from Baltimore metro north and 24+ in York. Wild 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Edit: Sorry SV maps overdo snow when it’s too warm so I never know how accurate it is for this model Columbia deathband is alive and well!!! Going to see how the mesos handle this within 60 to see if I’m going down to Howard county for this one or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 CMC stuck again. Been sitting on 48 forever. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wrap up the Icon and call it a day. Widespread 2 feet with better ratios from the deform. We've always said the Icon is a wonderful model. 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ICON sucks here. Glad its a horrid model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Columbia deathband is alive and well!!!! Except it expanded even to Baltimore, lol Good gloppity!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: Wrap up the Icon and call it a day. Widespread 2 feet with better ratios from the deform. We've always said the Icon is a wonderful model. Unreal run. You can cut 25% of that QPF likely but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: CMC stuck again. Been sitting on 48 forever. CMC doesn’t come out until 11, unless You mean rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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