• Member Statistics

    16,544
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BobbyB
    Newest Member
    BobbyB
    Joined
WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Amped said:

700mb wind maps says it all.   Screaming Jet from KS to Bermuda.   Ahead of the low there's almost no southerly winds.  Not taping any juice with that setup.

R232zhU.png

It’s a little better by 240. The upper low is still near Omaha there. But this isn’t a setup that needs a ton of deep moisture feed. If we get an amplifying closed low to pass over us just need enough. Not all setups are the same. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All I can saw is widespread , so that is a plus, actual amounts don't mean as much as the signal.

 

B2DE3DC5-3B30-47B6-8A8F-CEEBE8467136.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@frd there are 3 distinct threats on the EPS. First is discussed in the day 3-7 thread. This frame captures the day 9-11 threat. 
AE01B69E-D15E-493C-B79A-58874F7F4DBA.thumb.png.2ac063c310a62ac0c96043755ea9400f.png

I’ve covered this. It’s the one I’ve thought had the most potential to be a big storm. I’m not kicking the otters out of bed though. 

EPS tees up another wave for groundhogs day. Questionable on thermals by then but it’s not a bad signal.  It certainly favors the northern parts more but there are enough members with a far enough south track to watch. 
A771F35F-B8FA-4AB9-A518-2ED5CCBC4DE6.thumb.png.fed6d1fbabeacfe06e121f230ce2929e.png

339671EA-6FDB-40C5-969B-D2F7A468B6CF.thumb.jpeg.6892f7d7da9fba5b69d38b5f068b0c50.jpeg

The setup is there..can see the energy being forced under the block.  Ridge is suppressed.  Would depend on how much and where the cold boundary is setup probably.  

 

 


 

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting 

·
23h
 
Well the pacific has been unfavorable all year. If it moves into or ends up in phase 7 in February it is much colder looking with -glaam. MJO not everything, but so far the met winter has been mild for most last image
 
 
Image
 
Image
 
Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. 
 

Chuck can explain. 

  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Euro comes in with the last minute save to keep some of us from the ledge.

 

Save from what? I mean didn’t the Canadian crush you guys too? You have the para, cmc, and now the euro, who cares what the worst model out of the bunch says, aka GFS. Said it yesterday and I see no reason to change. South of MAson Dixon line is where I’d wanna be right now. 

  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. 
 

Chuck can explain. 

Hard to filter out the noise. Thanks 

MJO not the demon. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. 
 

Chuck can explain. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, frd said:

Hard to filter out the noise. Thanks 

MJO not the demon. 

I wasn’t poking at you. But I’ve said for a while I think the mjo is symbiotic. It’s part of the big picture. And often if it’s a strong signal it does align with the pattern. But sometimes when other things are driving the bus a weak mjo signal won’t offset. It’s failed to save us in bad patterns and it’s failed to kill us in good ones. But there are like 800 correlations to each little variable and what this phase does in that solar or this qbo and when there is a full moon with a vampire attack. I dunno how you use all that crap. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Ji said:

 

That was the mess the gfs was showing the other day when it was dumping everything west and punching a ridge to the North Pole (not exaggerating lol) ahead of it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 5 runs (College Park) through Feb 2 

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Save from what? I mean didn’t the Canadian crush you guys too? You have the para, cmc, and now the euro, who cares what the worst model out of the bunch says, aka GFS. Said it yesterday and I see no reason to change. South of MAson Dixon line is where I’d wanna be right now. 

You chasin?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. 
 

Chuck can explain. 

You've seen my SSW post in the trash? It favors -NAO until Feb ~15-20

Not valid I think.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. 
 

Chuck can explain. 

No. I see now. Makes perfect sense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. 
 

Chuck can explain. 

Why did you make eye contact? Now look what you done.

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Euro ensembles aint no Tesla

 

24 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

AAM is rotation of the globe,... it's at like 0.001. lol just kidding

Shut up Chuck

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

n00b question - what is the difference between the EPS Ensemble Control, and the standard Euro Operational model?  Different physics?  From what I understand, the Ensemble Control is the un-augmented run, which sounds like what the Operational is.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jason Es said:

n00b question - what is the difference between the EPS Ensemble Control, and the standard Euro Operational model?  Different physics?  From what I understand, the Ensemble Control is the un-augmented run, which sounds like what the Operational is.  

It's run at the ensemble resolution not the op resolution. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

lol GFS is just so scattershot for all of next week.  

The model is truly like spinning the wheel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

lol GFS is just so scattershot for all of next week.  

It’s the only guidance still keying on the front running NS wave so much. That messes up the wave for the 26th. Then (not that by then it matters if it’s wrong with waves 1-2) it’s faster then all other guidance with the 3rd wave so it’s too close to wave 2 and washes out.  I’d toss but it does fit the pattern of fail recently so I won’t say it’s not possible. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can we just get some precip that’s not a slightly less warm front? Is it even possible LOL.

Fixed 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Para GFS is a snowstorm for GA/SC/NC on the 28th.

Of course it's an OP run still 9-10 days away, but let's pretend that was likely...how much sense would that make, given the continental struggle for cold? Isn't this the kind of winter where, you'd think, we'd be less likely to see suppressed AND cold, given our struggles with cold air? Like if we were to struggle getting it up here, why would they get it down that that way? Lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.