Weather Will Posted January 19 WB 12Z EURO control looks like the deterministic....good news! 1 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, Amped said: 700mb wind maps says it all. Screaming Jet from KS to Bermuda. Ahead of the low there's almost no southerly winds. Not taping any juice with that setup. It’s a little better by 240. The upper low is still near Omaha there. But this isn’t a setup that needs a ton of deep moisture feed. If we get an amplifying closed low to pass over us just need enough. Not all setups are the same. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted January 19 All I can saw is widespread , so that is a plus, actual amounts don't mean as much as the signal. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 @frd there are 3 distinct threats on the EPS. First is discussed in the day 3-7 thread. This frame captures the day 9-11 threat. I’ve covered this. It’s the one I’ve thought had the most potential to be a big storm. I’m not kicking the otters out of bed though. EPS tees up another wave for groundhogs day. Questionable on thermals by then but it’s not a bad signal. It certainly favors the northern parts more but there are enough members with a far enough south track to watch. The setup is there..can see the energy being forced under the block. Ridge is suppressed. Would depend on how much and where the cold boundary is setup probably. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Fwiw geps likes the idea of a groundhogs day storm also 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted January 19 Interesting @RaleighWx · 23h Well the pacific has been unfavorable all year. If it moves into or ends up in phase 7 in February it is much colder looking with -glaam. MJO not everything, but so far the met winter has been mild for most last image Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ErinInTheSky Posted January 19 Euro comes in with the last minute save to keep some of us from the ledge. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wentzadelphia Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Euro comes in with the last minute save to keep some of us from the ledge. Save from what? I mean didn’t the Canadian crush you guys too? You have the para, cmc, and now the euro, who cares what the worst model out of the bunch says, aka GFS. Said it yesterday and I see no reason to change. South of MAson Dixon line is where I’d wanna be right now. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. Hard to filter out the noise. Thanks MJO not the demon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted January 19 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, frd said: Hard to filter out the noise. Thanks MJO not the demon. I wasn’t poking at you. But I’ve said for a while I think the mjo is symbiotic. It’s part of the big picture. And often if it’s a strong signal it does align with the pattern. But sometimes when other things are driving the bus a weak mjo signal won’t offset. It’s failed to save us in bad patterns and it’s failed to kill us in good ones. But there are like 800 correlations to each little variable and what this phase does in that solar or this qbo and when there is a full moon with a vampire attack. I dunno how you use all that crap. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 20 minutes ago, Ji said: That was the mess the gfs was showing the other day when it was dumping everything west and punching a ridge to the North Pole (not exaggerating lol) ahead of it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dallen7908 Posted January 19 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 5 runs (College Park) through Feb 2 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 39 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Save from what? I mean didn’t the Canadian crush you guys too? You have the para, cmc, and now the euro, who cares what the worst model out of the bunch says, aka GFS. Said it yesterday and I see no reason to change. South of MAson Dixon line is where I’d wanna be right now. You chasin? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19 I don't know.. I think it's weird that the -NAO empties into -PNA honestly. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. You've seen my SSW post in the trash? It favors -NAO until Feb ~15-20 Not valid I think. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Anyweather Posted January 19 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. No. I see now. Makes perfect sense. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19 AAM is rotation of the globe,... it's at like 0.001. lol just kidding Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. Why did you make eye contact? Now look what you done. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stormtracker Posted January 19 25 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Euro ensembles aint no Tesla 24 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: AAM is rotation of the globe,... it's at like 0.001. lol just kidding Shut up Chuck Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jason Es Posted January 19 n00b question - what is the difference between the EPS Ensemble Control, and the standard Euro Operational model? Different physics? From what I understand, the Ensemble Control is the un-augmented run, which sounds like what the Operational is. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kmlwx Posted January 19 Just now, Jason Es said: n00b question - what is the difference between the EPS Ensemble Control, and the standard Euro Operational model? Different physics? From what I understand, the Ensemble Control is the un-augmented run, which sounds like what the Operational is. It's run at the ensemble resolution not the op resolution. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted January 19 lol GFS is just so scattershot for all of next week. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol GFS is just so scattershot for all of next week. The model is truly like spinning the wheel. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol GFS is just so scattershot for all of next week. It’s the only guidance still keying on the front running NS wave so much. That messes up the wave for the 26th. Then (not that by then it matters if it’s wrong with waves 1-2) it’s faster then all other guidance with the 3rd wave so it’s too close to wave 2 and washes out. I’d toss but it does fit the pattern of fail recently so I won’t say it’s not possible. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19 Can we just get some precip that’s not a cold front? Is it even possible LOL. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted January 19 Para GFS is a snowstorm for GA/SC/NC on the 28th. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can we just get some precip that’s not a slightly less warm front? Is it even possible LOL. Fixed Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 44 minutes ago, nj2va said: Para GFS is a snowstorm for GA/SC/NC on the 28th. Of course it's an OP run still 9-10 days away, but let's pretend that was likely...how much sense would that make, given the continental struggle for cold? Isn't this the kind of winter where, you'd think, we'd be less likely to see suppressed AND cold, given our struggles with cold air? Like if we were to struggle getting it up here, why would they get it down that that way? Lol Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
