Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[CAPE]

Nice discussion here by Mount Holly on the possibilities for next week. They aren't buying the Euro/EPS idea so much.

Monday/Tuesday... Uncertainty is very high in this period, as guidance is struggling to get a handle on the interaction between the Arctic High over the Central US and an intensifying southern stream disturbance. The EC (with the backing of most of its ensemble) depict the system blasting through the high, with a double- barreled low setup & interior track resulting in a rather warm/wet solution for our area. Conversely the CMC/UKMET depict the High winning out resulting in a suppressed system that doesn`t really impact our area. The GFS is more or less in the middle with the high retreating but the low passing just offshore (which would be Team Snow`s preferred evolution). Although it is always hard to ignore the EC, it should be noted that its solution seems somewhat unlikely given the -AO and associated blocking pattern (although this index will be trending less negative). For now went with temperatures more in line with the GFS for Tuesday, but these could literally be 20-25 degrees too cold if we truly ended up in the warm sector like the EC depicts.

[Ji]

mainly sleet... RNK/AKQ though get crushed with ice

Gfs sleet on 8 inches of rgem snow works for me

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

06z PARA starts NW of i95 as snow on SAT at 84

oh ok PARA... I see you at 90 with that heavy snow at DCA

[stormtracker]

PARA is on drugs.  It really is the only model showing snow vs sleet/zr

[stormtracker]

Damn..Dallas is getting destroyed on the GFS at 126 or so.   If that ends up as rain for us, I am going to become unraveled.  s/w is already negative tilted down there

[Ji]

PARA is on drugs.  It really is the only model showing snow vs sleet/zr

Exactly except for the Canadians and icons

[yoda]

HP is 3mb stronger at 135 on 06z GFS compared to 141 00z along with being a tad further north

[Ji]

Damn..Dallas is getting destroyed on the GFS at 126 or so.   If that ends up as rain for us, I am going to become unraveled. 

The cold press is better for us this run

[yoda]

Just now, Ji said:

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn..Dallas is getting destroyed on the GFS at 126 or so.   If that ends up as rain for us, I am going to become unraveled. 

The cold press is better for us this run

Monster sleet in N LA

While its 14 degrees... wtf

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn..Dallas is getting destroyed on the GFS at 126 or so.   If that ends up as rain for us, I am going to become unraveled. 

The cold press is better for us this run

Looks like a banana like H on the GFS and a 1010 low in the gulf.  Let's see how this fails.

[yoda]

mmm... i like banana highs at 144

[Ji]

Looks like a banana like H on the GFS and a 1010 low in the gulf.  Let's see how this fails.

Lol at 144 we at 10 degrees

[stormtracker]

Just now, yoda said:

mmm... i like banana highs at 144

Looking at the GFS at 147, don't think it's gonna hold/save us (for all snow at least). WInding up that low like the Euro did

[Ji]

Looks like a banana like H on the GFS and a 1010 low in the gulf.  Let's see how this fails.

Amazing fail but we did it!

[stormtracker]

Nice wedge at 150.  we're in the mid 20's

[yoda]

lol sleet bomb through 156

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like a banana like H on the GFS and a 1010 low in the gulf.  Let's see how this fails.

Amazing fail but we did it!

Eh, we kinda knew it wasn't going to be snow.  I mean like a complete fail where it's like 60 and raining.  This one has good potential to trend favorably

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Eh, we kinda knew it wasn't going to be snow.  I mean like a complete fail where it's like 60 and raining.  This one has good potential to trend favorably

I'll just take the PARA and call it a morning

[stormtracker]

There's the rain..162.   Kinda Amazed that we have strong CAD etc and storm just blasts through.  Yes, I know it's meteorologically possible

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

There's the rain..162.   Kinda Amazed that we have strong CAD etc and storm just blasts through.  Yes, I know it's meteorologically possible

its light as dry slot comes racing through... pretty much sleet bomb to freezing rain to drizzle

[stormtracker]

Para ftmfw 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Para ftmfw 

At 150 its tight... but its 23 and RIPPING snow at DCA

[Ji]

Para ftmfw 

Looks like they fixed it after 5 days in the garage

[CAPE]

The general issues with next week are the trough axis to our west, and the h5 height configuration to our NE.

Euro/EPS has a deeper trough and a bit negative/w stronger ridging out in front,  and the NA vortex is a bit further NE. More opportunity for a primary to track to our west.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6z Para has a snowstorm for us Saturday and another one Tuesday.  Euro looks like mixed or rain for both.  Let's go para!

[frd]

 

Honestly thinking that this is the last chance at getting lucky for while in terms of significant area wide snowfall in areas that have missed most of the pathetic snow this season so far. . 

Hopefully changes with the TPV take place in the days ahead and the Euro OP track may trend more Southward in time . EPS is starting to hint at that. 

Certainly according to some, including HM the crazy situation out West may cause last minute model swings downstream and effect storm evolution even at short range. 

I mean really,  - 6 AO and all that arctic cold. 

I am not interested in ice or snow to rain. I want an all snow event.  

 

 

  

 

[LP08]

For the Saturday storm Nam is mighty close to starting as snow for a lot of people, and colder than other guidance.  I know nam at range but it seems to be sniffing the warm nose out for tonight.

[clskinsfan]

I am never sweating the Euro again. It got schooled again with tonight and the Friday event by the American models. The NAM is a serious sleet bomb for Saturday. .5 QPF as sleet for just about all of us. I have no idea what that would work out to in depth?

[IronTy]

Are we tracking next weekend's disappointment yet?

 

[MountainGeek]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am never sweating the Euro again. It got schooled again with tonight and the Friday event by the American models. The NAM is a serious sleet bomb for Saturday. .5 QPF as sleet for just about all of us. I have no idea what that would work out to in depth?

I think sleet is often in the 3-1 range.....so call it 1.5" of sleet ftw!