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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Nice discussion here by Mount Holly on the possibilities for next week. They aren't buying the Euro/EPS idea so much.

Monday/Tuesday... Uncertainty is very high in this period, as guidance is struggling to get a handle on the interaction between the Arctic High over the Central US and an intensifying southern stream disturbance. The EC (with the backing of most of its ensemble) depict the system blasting through the high, with a double- barreled low setup & interior track resulting in a rather warm/wet solution for our area. Conversely the CMC/UKMET depict the High winning out resulting in a suppressed system that doesn`t really impact our area. The GFS is more or less in the middle with the high retreating but the low passing just offshore (which would be Team Snow`s preferred evolution). Although it is always hard to ignore the EC, it should be noted that its solution seems somewhat unlikely given the -AO and associated blocking pattern (although this index will be trending less negative). For now went with temperatures more in line with the GFS for Tuesday, but these could literally be 20-25 degrees too cold if we truly ended up in the warm sector like the EC depicts.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
Damn..Dallas is getting destroyed on the GFS at 126 or so.   If that ends up as rain for us, I am going to become unraveled. 

The cold press is better for us this run

Looks like a banana like H on the GFS and a 1010 low in the gulf.  Let's see how this fails.

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Just now, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
Looks like a banana like H on the GFS and a 1010 low in the gulf.  Let's see how this fails.

Amazing fail but we did it!

Eh, we kinda knew it wasn't going to be snow.  I mean like a complete fail where it's like 60 and raining.  This one has good potential to trend favorably

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Honestly thinking that this is the last chance at getting lucky for while in terms of significant area wide snowfall in areas that have missed most of the pathetic snow this season so far. . 

Hopefully changes with the TPV take place in the days ahead and the Euro OP track may trend more Southward in time . EPS is starting to hint at that. 

Certainly according to some, including HM the crazy situation out West may cause last minute model swings downstream and effect storm evolution even at short range. 

I mean really,  - 6 AO and all that arctic cold. 

I am not interested in ice or snow to rain. I want an all snow event.  

 

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11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am never sweating the Euro again. It got schooled again with tonight and the Friday event by the American models. The NAM is a serious sleet bomb for Saturday. .5 QPF as sleet for just about all of us. I have no idea what that would work out to in depth?

I think sleet is often in the 3-1 range.....so call it 1.5" of sleet ftw!

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