CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Nice discussion here by Mount Holly on the possibilities for next week. They aren't buying the Euro/EPS idea so much. Monday/Tuesday... Uncertainty is very high in this period, as guidance is struggling to get a handle on the interaction between the Arctic High over the Central US and an intensifying southern stream disturbance. The EC (with the backing of most of its ensemble) depict the system blasting through the high, with a double- barreled low setup & interior track resulting in a rather warm/wet solution for our area. Conversely the CMC/UKMET depict the High winning out resulting in a suppressed system that doesn`t really impact our area. The GFS is more or less in the middle with the high retreating but the low passing just offshore (which would be Team Snow`s preferred evolution). Although it is always hard to ignore the EC, it should be noted that its solution seems somewhat unlikely given the -AO and associated blocking pattern (although this index will be trending less negative). For now went with temperatures more in line with the GFS for Tuesday, but these could literally be 20-25 degrees too cold if we truly ended up in the warm sector like the EC depicts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 mainly sleet... RNK/AKQ though get crushed with iceGfs sleet on 8 inches of rgem snow works for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: 06z PARA starts NW of i95 as snow on SAT at 84 oh ok PARA... I see you at 90 with that heavy snow at DCA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 PARA is on drugs. It really is the only model showing snow vs sleet/zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Damn..Dallas is getting destroyed on the GFS at 126 or so. If that ends up as rain for us, I am going to become unraveled. s/w is already negative tilted down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 PARA is on drugs. It really is the only model showing snow vs sleet/zrExactly except for the Canadians and icons 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 HP is 3mb stronger at 135 on 06z GFS compared to 141 00z along with being a tad further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Damn..Dallas is getting destroyed on the GFS at 126 or so. If that ends up as rain for us, I am going to become unraveled. The cold press is better for us this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn..Dallas is getting destroyed on the GFS at 126 or so. If that ends up as rain for us, I am going to become unraveled. The cold press is better for us this run Monster sleet in N LA While its 14 degrees... wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn..Dallas is getting destroyed on the GFS at 126 or so. If that ends up as rain for us, I am going to become unraveled. The cold press is better for us this run Looks like a banana like H on the GFS and a 1010 low in the gulf. Let's see how this fails. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 mmm... i like banana highs at 144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like a banana like H on the GFS and a 1010 low in the gulf. Let's see how this fails.Lol at 144 we at 10 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, yoda said: mmm... i like banana highs at 144 Looking at the GFS at 147, don't think it's gonna hold/save us (for all snow at least). WInding up that low like the Euro did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like a banana like H on the GFS and a 1010 low in the gulf. Let's see how this fails.Amazing fail but we did it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Nice wedge at 150. we're in the mid 20's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 lol sleet bomb through 156 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looks like a banana like H on the GFS and a 1010 low in the gulf. Let's see how this fails. Amazing fail but we did it! Eh, we kinda knew it wasn't going to be snow. I mean like a complete fail where it's like 60 and raining. This one has good potential to trend favorably 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Eh, we kinda knew it wasn't going to be snow. I mean like a complete fail where it's like 60 and raining. This one has good potential to trend favorably I'll just take the PARA and call it a morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 There's the rain..162. Kinda Amazed that we have strong CAD etc and storm just blasts through. Yes, I know it's meteorologically possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: There's the rain..162. Kinda Amazed that we have strong CAD etc and storm just blasts through. Yes, I know it's meteorologically possible its light as dry slot comes racing through... pretty much sleet bomb to freezing rain to drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Para ftmfw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Para ftmfw At 150 its tight... but its 23 and RIPPING snow at DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Para ftmfw Looks like they fixed it after 5 days in the garage 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The general issues with next week are the trough axis to our west, and the h5 height configuration to our NE. Euro/EPS has a deeper trough and a bit negative/w stronger ridging out in front, and the NA vortex is a bit further NE. More opportunity for a primary to track to our west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6z Para has a snowstorm for us Saturday and another one Tuesday. Euro looks like mixed or rain for both. Let's go para! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Honestly thinking that this is the last chance at getting lucky for while in terms of significant area wide snowfall in areas that have missed most of the pathetic snow this season so far. . Hopefully changes with the TPV take place in the days ahead and the Euro OP track may trend more Southward in time . EPS is starting to hint at that. Certainly according to some, including HM the crazy situation out West may cause last minute model swings downstream and effect storm evolution even at short range. I mean really, - 6 AO and all that arctic cold. I am not interested in ice or snow to rain. I want an all snow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 For the Saturday storm Nam is mighty close to starting as snow for a lot of people, and colder than other guidance. I know nam at range but it seems to be sniffing the warm nose out for tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I am never sweating the Euro again. It got schooled again with tonight and the Friday event by the American models. The NAM is a serious sleet bomb for Saturday. .5 QPF as sleet for just about all of us. I have no idea what that would work out to in depth? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Are we tracking next weekend's disappointment yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am never sweating the Euro again. It got schooled again with tonight and the Friday event by the American models. The NAM is a serious sleet bomb for Saturday. .5 QPF as sleet for just about all of us. I have no idea what that would work out to in depth? I think sleet is often in the 3-1 range.....so call it 1.5" of sleet ftw! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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