• Member Statistics

    16,544
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BobbyB
    Newest Member
    BobbyB
    Joined
WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But what if the pac isn't fixable...some of us are focused on ways to work AROUND the pac...because that jet isn't going anywhere...its been a non stop thing for 5 years!  So we can either try to work around it or just give up!

Oh, I’m not giving up. I’m with ya. We’re going to get some flat wave NS stuff soon, at least that looks as much right now. Hopefully we reorganize that west coast ridge and activate the SS as we progress through February. Feels like forever since feb has been rocking. We’re due

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

One extreme to the other.. but an expected shift given the advertised pattern. We need something a bit in between though lol.

There are lots of reasons that initial wave around the 22 after the block establishes is the lowest probability. The NS hasn’t been suppressed yet. So it’s very likely the NS wave runs to our north. Without any interaction it’s likely the southern feature is weak and suppressed. Additionally and related the cold is just starting to press. It’s really hard to get something to amplify as the boundary is pressing south.  Not impossible but this is why we score way more often after blocking and cold is established. Way easier to get a southern wave to amplify as cold retreats some. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I get it, but at some point the masses need to be able to read between the lines when something isn't stated in a perfectly explicit manner. Kinda tired of putting disclaimers/qualifiers on every post to prevent :cliff:

You let me know when that “some point” comes. @Ji wants to know. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Thanks for the breakdown . I'm curious though of the March 2018. I'll have to look at my records but I'm thinking I got 14 inches here from that storm and more further north . I'd think MECS not SECS but maybe I got the wrong year .

I got 14” and it was definitely a MECS for our area north but that only extended to the PA borders counties. There was a sharp cutoff to snow about 15 miles south of PA the first half of the storm. For 90% of this forum it was a 4-8” event which is more a SECS. These are subjective and location dependent of course. But when I post here I try to be DC-Balt centric since that’s where the vast majority of the people reading are from. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I got 15 but never was more than 12 on the ground at one time.

Good to know. My records (14”) is likely wrong because I was at work that day and had an evening meeting and got home very late. By then the snowfall from the first day had ended and temps warmed in the dry slot and I’m sure compaction had set in.  My peak depth was also about 12” the second day. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I got 14” and it was definitely a MECS for our area north but that only extended to the PA borders counties. There was a sharp cutoff to snow about 15 miles south of PA the first half of the storm. For 90% of this forum it was a 4-8” event which is more a SECS. These are subjective and location dependent of course. But when I post here I try to be DC-Balt centric since that’s where the vast majority of the people reading are from. 

That's fine . I'm more talking mid Atlantic region . I also consider double digits imo in multiple locals in more then 1 state  a MECS .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll have to dust off my trapper keeper and look but I'm 99% sure I got around 14" March 20th and bigger totals north . 

 

Yep...13.8" imby

Thurmont 16.5"

S.York 16-20"

What did you get March 17?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I got 14” and it was definitely a MECS for our area north but that only extended to the PA borders counties. There was a sharp cutoff to snow about 15 miles south of PA the first half of the storm. For 90% of this forum it was a 4-8” event which is more a SECS. These are subjective and location dependent of course. But when I post here I try to be DC-Balt centric since that’s where the vast majority of the people reading are from. 

That was a decent storm in Takoma park.  6-8 inches I believe. It was of course a little sloppy cause it was Late March IIRC but it was fun. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What an unmitigated disaster that run was. I told cape that he would see blue at 557pm and I couldn't even deliver that

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What did you get March 17?

 

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm driving...I'll look later :D

The sleet killed us in that storm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ji said:

What an unmitigated disaster that run was. I told cape that he would see blue at 557pm and I couldn't even deliver that

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

15 days out.  Wow.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Ji said:

What an unmitigated disaster that run was. I told cape that he would see blue at 557pm and I couldn't even deliver that

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

You were pretty close on the time. Blue at hour 234. The main wave was crushed south though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I got 14” and it was definitely a MECS for our area north but that only extended to the PA borders counties. There was a sharp cutoff to snow about 15 miles south of PA the first half of the storm. For 90% of this forum it was a 4-8” event which is more a SECS. These are subjective and location dependent of course. But when I post here I try to be DC-Balt centric since that’s where the vast majority of the people reading are from. 

Went back and found this. 8" total but 6.5" max measured on the ground. Haven't had a storm that good since. Finished that winter slightly above average, at right around 19".

thumbnail_IMG_7763.thumb.jpg.be66c41995d9a409dc41b44a994753f2.jpg

2018-19 was meh, with the biggest event being 5". Literally nothing since- just under an inch last winter.

 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji check out the para. Perfect wave incoming and just dies literally on out doorstep. 

Your door step or mine.  My therapist wants to know help determine whether to up my meds 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

True. But If we look at every legitimate NAO block (not just a transient bootleg ridge) during Nina’s of the past 30 years it should set the goalposts. And while I’m not expecting 2010 the fact is even in a Nina almost every blocking episode produced at least one good snowstorm. 

1996: high bar...nuff said

March 1999: several storms 

January 2000: 1 KU and 2 other storms 

Dec-March 2000/01: low bar but even that year it did snow but there is a reason that’s remembered as a disaster it was the worst underachiever ever!

Feb 2006: 1 MECS

Dec-Jan 2011: 1 MECS and a couple minor events

March 2018: 1 SECS and a couple minor events 

So it would be unheard of to get blanked even with our crap Nina climo and bad luck  

 

 

Thanks for doing that research. This is what I made a post about earlier...years featuring the -AO/-NAO in Dec-Jan generally have produced a SECS/MECS. I just wasn't 100% sure on the enso phases in those years, so again thanks. Im keying on Jan 28-Feb 7 give or take as a 10ish day stretch to produce at least 1 widespread SECS for the region, with 'possibly' as many as 3 solid threats total. I know you are interested in the 26th threat leading up. Im not 100% sold on that one just yet even tho it look more interesting on the euro family now, as that could be the last in the progression before we transition to a more workable(?) look. But we seem to both agree the period beyond that one does look just as good, probably even better with some relaxing up top. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Went back and found this. 8" total but 6.5" max measured on the ground. Haven't had a storm that good since. Finished that winter slightly above average, at right around 19".

thumbnail_IMG_7763.thumb.jpg.be66c41995d9a409dc41b44a994753f2.jpg

2018-19 was meh, with the biggest event being 5". Literally nothing since- just under an inch last winter.

 

Such a cool spot!

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Went back and found this. 8" total but 6.5" max measured on the ground. Haven't had a storm that good since. Finished that winter slightly above average, at right around 19".

thumbnail_IMG_7763.thumb.jpg.be66c41995d9a409dc41b44a994753f2.jpg

2018-19 was meh, with the biggest event being 5". Literally nothing since- just under an inch last winter.

 

beautiful house for snow 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Def more of a D10/11 miller B / CAD signal on the 18z GEFS.  

24hr snow panel cause its more funner to look at.....

HY1EK7X.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s been said before but that is a good signal above.  This far out it’s a huge signal 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Ji said:

beautiful house for snow 

If only it was in a place where it actually snowed anymore lol.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s been said before but that is a good signal above.  This far out it’s a huge signal 

It is a great signal...honestly though, I pretty much throw my hands up at every run.  Feel like great signals have been thrown at us so many times....wait and see all over again.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CAPE said:

If only it was in a place where it actually snowed anymore lol.

It is a beautiful house, man.  Love it...especially in the snow.  That pic could pass as a mountain retreat rental.....just dont tell them about the skeeters and 2 years with no snow! 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, poolz1 said:

It is a great signal...honestly though, I pretty much throw my hands up at every run.  Feel like great signals have been thrown at us so many times....wait and see all over again.

Yeah its 10 days out, but there has been a decent signal for just beyond the 25th over multiple GEFS/EPS runs now. Sadly the trends are not good for next week, but still far enough out where there could be some favorable changes-enough for a light event maybe- esp given the fast, chaotic flow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

18Z WB GEFS...

 

0F20A4EA-A22C-477F-87A2-A5115B980B0F.png

14 or so acceptable hits in there to my eye, with several biggies. Not bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.