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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

He has to be. 

I am so tired of revisionist history around here. The Euro locked onto the possibility of a long duration east coast storm of significance around last Tuesday, six days before the storm. The GFS was stubborn in NOT supporting a storm until the later on Thursday runs. 

People (ahem, at least a red tagger anyway) point to the max being to our north as some evidence that the Euro is shit, rather than focusing on the Euro having been early and correct about the period of storminess and the potential impact somewhere on the east coast.

All of which is to say, the Euro being stubborn in seeing a storm for the east coast at these leads for the weekend is the camp I would rather be in, than in the GFS camp...

Yeah, was mostly joking. Should have added an emoji.  But it certainly plausible that this ends up OTS. 
 

Would love a super bowl storm. Some of us are old enough to remember the 87 super bowl storm. That was awesome. 

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Got a feeling the Euro is gearing up for another storm around D10.  I'll head over to that thread if it does

HM is hinting HECS/MECS from Feb 10-15. Its funny how last year everyone thought it was going to be a big winter. Doug K went for 40 plus inches. This year...everyone saw La Nina and concluded disaster. We are not good at seasonal forecasting

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I want a cold powder event that leaves you smokin' cirrus. B)

dude--my worst weather besides heat and humidity is bitter cold and dry. As i get older...i think  prefer the heat lol. But a super cold snow...yea ill take that. i only care about snow.

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17 minutes ago, frd said:

Its prime climo, I expect better.

Up North has a better climo, we all know that,  but honestly look at some of those totals from the last storm. . 

I guess I am also frustrated by this last storm,  was forecasted to get 10 inches and only received 4 inches.    

I get your frustration...other than Sunday, this storm was a compete dud for me too. Im just saying you're like what 20 miles from the DE Bay if that?  Just have to have a lot go right in order to get a storm thats more than a few inches.

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

I get your frustration...other than Sunday, this storm was a compete dud for me too. Im just saying you're like what 20 miles from the DE Bay if that?  Just have to have a lot go right in order to get a storm thats more than a few inches.

I do a lot better in moderate Ninos, even strong ones with blocking here. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

HM is hinting HECS/MECS from Feb 10-15. Its funny how last year everyone thought it was going to be a big winter. Doug K went for 40 plus inches. This year...everyone saw La Nina and concluded disaster. We are not good at seasonal forecasting

 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

dude--my worst weather besides heat and humidity is bitter cold and dry. As i get older...i think  prefer the heat lol. But a super cold snow...yea ill take that. i only care about snow.

No one wants cold and dry, but I would love the rare snowstorm followed by a shot of true Arctic air. Not like it would last long around here, but I love a few mornings around zero with snow cover. Its awesome.  Haven't had that since like 2014 or 15 maybe.

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I’m telling you guys whatever happens over next 10 days is gravy. The pattern at the end of euro is HECS potential. We do well at the end of the pattern when it’s about to break down. There’s a split flow setup with lower heights all pressed east into 50/50 region. At this range timing and placement of features is crap, it’s the overall idea you look at. We’re way too far out to know the details but feb 10-17 should have a legit shot at another major event for EC. 

84A836C7-C048-4EBD-A7F0-6340E73699C4.jpeg

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

I’m telling you guys whatever happens over next 10 days is gravy. The pattern at the end of euro is HECS potential. We do well at the end of the pattern when it’s about to break down. There’s a split flow setup with lower heights all pressed east into 50/50 region. At this range timing and placement of features is crap, it’s the overall idea you look at. We’re way too far out to know the details but feb 10-17 should have a legit shot at another major event for EC. 

84A836C7-C048-4EBD-A7F0-6340E73699C4.jpeg

From your finally charged mobile device to God's ears. Bring it home!

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

I’m telling you guys whatever happens over next 10 days is gravy. The pattern at the end of euro is HECS potential. We do well at the end of the pattern when it’s about to break down. There’s a split flow setup with lower heights all pressed east into 50/50 region. At this range timing and placement of features is crap, it’s the overall idea you look at. We’re way too far out to know the details but feb 10-17 should have a legit shot at another major event for EC. 

84A836C7-C048-4EBD-A7F0-6340E73699C4.jpeg

Last time I looked past the gravy I ended up with a smaller helping of gravy, and no meat.

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Just now, CAPE said:

No one wants cold and dry, but I would love the rare snowstorm followed by a shot of true Arctic air. Not like it would last long around here, but I love a few mornings around zero with snow cover. Its awesome.  Haven't had that since like 2014 or 15 maybe.

I recall the famous December 4 th or 5 th snowstorm from 2002 I believe. The lead into that great winter,  and a great tip off to the potential as well for the months ahead.  

We had 6 to 8 inches of snow here. The following day my daughter had piano lessons, I recall taking her out that morning and with the incoming cold air combined with deep snow cover we achieved a low of 6 or 7 degrees F. I believe.

Snow cover, if deep enough, as you know  is a real boost to lower temps at night and the day as well.    

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5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I’m telling you guys whatever happens over next 10 days is gravy. The pattern at the end of euro is HECS potential. We do well at the end of the pattern when it’s about to break down. There’s a split flow setup with lower heights all pressed east into 50/50 region. At this range timing and placement of features is crap, it’s the overall idea you look at. We’re way too far out to know the details but feb 10-17 should have a legit shot at another major event for EC. 

Interesting, look out West as well.  

 

500hv.conus.png

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3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I’m telling you guys whatever happens over next 10 days is gravy. The pattern at the end of euro is HECS potential. We do well at the end of the pattern when it’s about to break down. There’s a split flow setup with lower heights all pressed east into 50/50 region. At this range timing and placement of features is crap, it’s the overall idea you look at. We’re way too far out to know the details but feb 10-17 should have a legit shot at another major event for EC. 

84A836C7-C048-4EBD-A7F0-6340E73699C4.jpeg

What's crazy is that there's reason to believe the pattern reloads once it breaks down in mid-month. Once we get there, we'll be close ton the time when we need a lot to go right to get all snow in these parts, but we also all know that things can get *really* interesting as we get into late February with a favorable upper-air setup.

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1 minute ago, frd said:

I recall the famous December 4 th or 5 th snowstorm from 2002 I believe. The lead into that great winter,  and a great tip off to the potential as well for the months ahead.  

We had 6 to 8 inches of snow here. The following day my daughter had piano lessons, I recall taking her out that morning and with the incoming cold air combined with deep snow cover we achieved a low of 6 or 7 degrees F. I believe.

Snow cover, if deep enough, as you know  is a real boost to lower temps at night and the day as well.    

My last recollection of a temp at zero was after a snowstorm in early March of 2015 I believe. Was a great day, so refreshing. I went hiking and temps were in the 20s that day. Took lots of photos.

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