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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly's take for the early next week threat. I tend to agree with their general assessment.

The main story in the long term is the potential system Monday into Tuesday. Some of the operational models, most notably the Canadian, trended towards the GFS solution showing a track mostly suppressed to the south, progressive, and weakening as it gets to the eastern U.S.. The ECMWF still shows a slower solution with the low crossing over our region. However, I am a bit skeptical of the ECMWF solution as it depicts the southern stream mid level trough lifting northeast as it deepens without phasing with any shortwave trough in the northern stream. This seems like an odd track for this time of year, and quite a departure from what we`ve seen with recent storm tracks. None the less, I`ve stayed close to the previous forecast given the poor agreement between models and from run to run.

LWX seems more gung ho with their take this morning

Quote
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Canadian high pressure will build overhead Sunday, bringing dry and
chilly conditions to the region.

Low pressure over the central CONUS will likely track nearby or
through our area Monday into Tuesday, bringing a chance for wintry
precipitation. Although confidence in the exact details remain
uncertain at this time, confidence for at least some wintry
precipitation has increased over the last couple days. This is
because the ensembles of the global guidance has picked up on the
threat, and the overall pattern does appear to be favorable for a
winter storm to affect our area. The low`s origin will be in the
Pacific Ocean, and with an active subtropical jet it should pick up
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a negative NAO
(North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) will favor
the development of high pressure to our north. Will continue to
monitor over the next few days.

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Just now, yoda said:

LWX seems more gung ho with their take this morning

Remember Mount Holly forecast domain is very broad from north to south, so when the say 'suppressed', they are favoring precip chances from around Philly southward.

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5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

6z euro vs 00z. Looks like a touch more ridging & a slightly stronger main wave

BB3CD61B-7832-4016-A299-72DBADC093BD.gif

06F8ABFF-A046-46A2-88C9-93B8F9B3A2C8.png

Looks like a carbon copy to me

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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The one that crushes Norfolk and leaves me with pity flakes?:lol:

Yup. The first storm gives us slop and rain and a few days later Norfolk gets its annual cold smoke blizzard while we trip over frozen chunks of mud.

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28 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Yup. The first storm gives us slop and rain and a few days later Norfolk gets its annual cold smoke blizzard while we trip over frozen chunks of mud.

At this point I'm willing to use my snow shovel just to scrape frozen leaves off my driveway.  If we get 1-2" in SoMD I'll consider that a warning level event.   

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While we have a break, let’s take a moment to recognize the gfs consistency with this event. Uncanny model. Just simply the best.

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Who knows how it goes but I think this has the potential to get bigger.

Now who has the DAMN EPS MEMBERS :lol:

I need my fix

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Who knows how it goes but I think this has the potential to get bigger.

Now who has the DAMN EPS MEMBERS :lol:

I need my fix

get out a credit card

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

get out a credit card

That means you don’t have them either. Get another guitar gig.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That means you don’t have them either. Get another guitar gig.

yea i didnt renew my subscription this year when i heard PSU's winter forecast back in October lol. Plus you snoop around enough on Twitter and the boards and you will find all you need(just now in real time:( 

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11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Who knows how it goes but I think this has the potential to get bigger.

Now who has the DAMN EPS MEMBERS :lol:

I need my fix

Use appropriately.

380AB895-55C4-4882-B537-DE6D92019884.png

AE909176-4383-47FC-97AB-7376B031FB4C.png

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15 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Use appropriately.

380AB895-55C4-4882-B537-DE6D92019884.png

AE909176-4383-47FC-97AB-7376B031FB4C.png

looks good!.......

 

for PA

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thanks. Pretty sure 25 is how this shakes out

bold call. i like it. 

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ICON suddenly trended warmer at 6z, but is back to a somewhat colder solution. It's a strung out mess however, yet it still manages a med range WWA snowfall for many

icon-all-ma-total_snow_10to1-1835200.thumb.png.5c54de00e39ac43cae97ca895e6e3501.png

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I sort of have the gut feeling todays model runs are going to create a lot of suckers on the board. 

Yeah. Include me in that category. I’m not letting anything stop my positivity. When the ICON shows snow, look out.

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4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

ICON suddenly trended warmer at 6z, but is back to a somewhat colder solution. It's a strung out mess however, yet it still manages a med range WWA snowfall for many

icon-all-ma-total_snow_10to1-1835200.thumb.png.5c54de00e39ac43cae97ca895e6e3501.png

Yes please

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6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

ICON suddenly trended warmer at 6z, but is back to a somewhat colder solution. It's a strung out mess however, yet it still manages a med range WWA snowfall for many

icon-all-ma-total_snow_10to1-1835200.thumb.png.5c54de00e39ac43cae97ca895e6e3501.png

im walking the line there but this has to be a good sign if the icon shows that much snow right?

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