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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sit down, I have some news.

Michael Jackson died. 

 

12 minutes ago, Amped said:

Icon looks a bit strung out. 

beat it

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the icon was showing some horrible solutions that past few days so this is a good sign right?

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the 850 temps at 114 hour at 00z are laughable differences with the 18z at the same time. the line is like a 2 state difference

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Way less ridging this run

00look at the 850 line at 18z

gfs_T850_us_21.png00z

gfs_T850_us_20.png

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Most of us already knew this, but this storm is frustrating af and honestly, we probably aren't going to know what's what until like 48 hours beforehand.    It's like a snake, keeps wiggling back and forth, but within a certain zone

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135 Heavy stuff out by Winchester.  Comfortably snow everywhere.  Sharp cutoff through MD

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just stunning differnces in runs between 18z and 00z lol. Its not like this is happening at 240 hours either

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still to strung out for my liking. Get that a bit stronger without the ridging lol and we can get our pink back

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

not there yet, but this is good news.  If we can get a hold for like 4 runs in a row...

yea--that was kind of the worst boom ever. The post was way better than what the model run showed smh

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Just now, stormtracker said:

eh, not as great as I thought, but definitely not a disaster that was 18z

Why what’s wrong with it.  It’s blue for you and me and the others 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

not there yet, but this is good news.  If we can get a hold for like 4 runs in a row...

Yeah. That has to be the thinnest stripe of accumulated snow I have ever seen on a snow map. This one is going to be a heartbreaker for someone. 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS with differences vs 18z...shouldn't be as (drink)...amp'd

That NS wave really makes this harder then it should be in this setup. And that’s the kind of crap you can’t see from range. But even with a weaker solution it still damages the thermals ahead of the southern wave. If that NS wave simply didn’t exist that would be a really simple WAA snow setup. 
This before the NS wave is still pathetic for an airmass that was directly from the Arctic but it’s decent.  It’s enough. 
DB205DE4-DCCF-43C3-91F8-E071C771F9F9.thumb.png.60abf603211a92e73a00181029493e6e.png

but look what the flow under the NS wave did...

371323DB-3C86-4FE7-80BA-4A26A495473B.thumb.png.9a7f607d357592a53918955a503c246b.png

we’ve lost the mid levels before the SS wave is even approaching.  Now we have a double bind. We need cold to press back in but we also need an amplifying wave to get good moisture.  That double bind is why we see such a limited scope to the snow on most runs and why this won’t be the kind of expansive snowstorm it could be in this setup if the NS hasn’t wrecked the thermal profile in front.  It also doesn’t help that even a direct shot of Arctic air isn’t really all that deep to resist a fairly weak wave. 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Why what’s wrong with it.  It’s blue for you and me and the others 

It's better than nothing, but not heavy snow.  I'd rather have that than the 18z, that's for sure.

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