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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Primary in N KY and moving due west.  Still snow from about ezf and north.  At 111

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Just now, jayyy said:

It can be 20-25 degrees and be pouring sleet. Trust me. As somebody who grew up in the mix zone NW of NYC, it happens enough. Saw a nasty sleet storm up there in the early 2000s and it never got above 30 

I get it. I've had sleet with temps in the teens back in the 90s. They were storms driving in,from the west though.  My point is with a low bombing off the coast I generally would have better temps upstairs in these situations. Atleast In my BY. I'm pretty far west.

 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

confluence is a touch better at 108 but not sure it's going to give us the goods this run

Nope, it’s a mix up here at 120

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GFS not going to get the job done. Upper energy looks baggy and transfer too late to the coastal. We get waa front end and that is all. 

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Nobody on this board should be taking the GFS seriously with how it has performed lately.  If the Euro ends up being even remotely close its the King for a reason

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Just now, Chris78 said:

I get it. I've had sleet with temps in the teens back in the 90s. They were storms driving in,from the west though.  My point is with a low bombing off the coast I generally would have better temps upstairs in these situations. Atleast In my BY. I'm pretty far west.

 

I have had a couple of situations with frz. Below 20 degrees.  Super cad. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Para looks a bit colder. Heavy snow breaking out at 108 sw va and moving toward the dc crew.

Heavy snow at 114

Dry slot at 120

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Amazing how different the evolution at 500 is than the Euro.  Vort on the GFS is robust/closed over the plains but then opens/weakens as it heads east.  Euro has a much stronger vort.

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GFS transfer still gets Norther Maryland into some of the costal snow.. let's see if it stalls there

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1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

GFS is a hot steaming pile of garbage. See y'all tomorrow.

Trended slightly south. It will line up with the King soon enough.

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Para gets the primary almost to Chicago before sliding east..don’t think that will work out to well other than some front end snow.

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GFS was trying to figure out where the transfer off the coast. Looked 300 miles off shore then pulled a Lee Corso and said “Not so fast my friend”

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