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January 7 - 8 ULL potential


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40 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

Guess I need to jump in the car and drive south for about 30 minutes if I’m gonna see any snow tonight.  LOL!

Lol I've done it also! Just about the last snow of the season and at the last minute it swung about 50 miles south of me ,so I  got on the road!

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MRX 10pm update on FB:

 

10 PM EST Update:

 

Let's talk about uncertainty! Please understand that this is one of the more uncertain winter weather events that we've had to forecast for this area in several years. The temperature profile is borderline rain/snow and a degree either way can make a big impact on if snow or rain is falling at your location.

 

With southeast low-level winds tonight, winds are blowing up the mountain on the North Carolina side with cooling temperatures and some snow. On our side, it's blowing down the mountain and sinking with some slight warming. Rising air = cooling air and sinking air = warming air. Late tonight, as the surface low moves eastward, these southeast winds will turn toward the northeast. This will limit that warming on the Tennessee side of the mountains.

 

We will also have an upper low moving across the area. With rising air beneath the upper low, this will cool the air underneath it. Heavier precipitation and stronger rising air will cool the air more and make snow more likely across the valley.

 

In parts of the valley, some areas will get very little snow and some areas may get up to 2 to 3 inches depending on how much rain mixes in at your location. Valley locations around and northeast of Knoxville have the highest probability of seeing an inch or more of snow. What snow falls and accumulates will likely occur quickly. Most snow accumulation will occur within about a 3 hour period on Friday morning. There is high confidence that the higher elevations of the mountains will see heavy snow. This will be a heavy, wet snow with snow ratios closer to 6:1 or 8:1.

 

With the heaviest snow occurring during the morning commute, this may make travel difficult.

 

If you have some questions about the weather forecast or the science behind it, let's chat: comment below! If you're seeing snow where you are, please let us know, too.

 

https://www.facebook.com/198704190160961/posts/3872454576119219/

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

FWIW at TYS according to meteograms:

18z NAM: 7 inches with a Cobb of 4.5

00z NAM: 3.8 inches with a Cobb of 0.2

HRRR and RAP still showing zero frozen precip.

00z RGEM: a dusting

The HRRR in particular is showing a persistent SE flow at 850mb over the mountains. That would make it very difficult for temperatures to cooperate in many parts of the valley in a marginal situation. I hope that changes.

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9 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

The HRRR in particular is showing a persistent SE flow at 850mb over the mountains. That would make it very difficult for temperatures to cooperate in many parts of the valley in a marginal situation. I hope that changes.

Currently 35 here. Noticed Bristols 40. Downsloping appears greater there for now. Hrrr didn't do well here for Christmas storm. Of course, different setup but, it as with the Nam 3k does tend to overdo Downsloping here in Lee County.  Although, in the current situation with the wind trajectory, unfortunately it may be close to being right. 

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34 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Currently 35 here. Noticed Bristols 40. Downsloping appears greater there for now. Hrrr didn't do well here for Christmas storm. Of course, different setup but, it as with the Nam 3k does tend to overdo Downsloping here in Lee County.  Although, in the current situation with the wind trajectory, unfortunately it may be close to being right. 

How much downsloping effects the event will be a close call. Just after I posted that, the 03z run came in with an improvement in NE TN…with a slightly more easterly component (rather than perpendicular) over the mountains near Greene and Unicoi Co for example.  

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31 at my house between Monterey and Crossville. Still seems to be coming down pretty good. I wasn't expecting it to snow this much already so hopefully it'll keep up as it moves east. Temperatures are supposed to stay hovering around freezing all night but hopefully it won't melt much.

Screenshot_20210107-232633_Gallery.jpg

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Ended up with 1.5" total on the snowboard. Secondary roads were awful when I was out checking for the school system last night. Got sideways twice coming off the big hill.

Not sure how to shrink the pics to fit? Sorry, getting old and left behind on the technology. :)

 

 

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