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Typhoon Tip

Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

It infuriates me to look at this map. It looks like a png I pulled off the internet in high school. The guy can't make a better map? Seriously

I actually kind of liked it. Bear in mind I uploaded a low resolution version. I like that you can zoom in and see the towns.

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12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

First 00z run of the night didn't start off too well.  Long range HRRR looks just like the NAM. 

Quite the letdown from its 18z run.

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2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I actually kind of liked it. Bear in mind I uploaded a low resolution version. I like that you can zoom in and see the towns.

Graphics are a major part of the business... looks stuck in 2005

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54 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Solid on the 18z EPS

image.png.ea53992c67d8657f09dab69892e12fa3.png

I’d trust the EPS, but man the Euro OP has been way more amped in multiple coastal low events this season.  It loves to tuck them in.  I’m still shoveling ECMWF snow like the GGEM when it comes to coastal systems, phantom snow on the NW side while it tucks it in.

Hopefully it pulls a rabbit from its hat this time.

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16 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

It infuriates me to look at this map. It looks like a png I pulled off the internet in high school. The guy can't make a better map? Seriously

I don't mind the map, as much as the fact that it somehow represents the primary forecast (vs. NWS) to the entire Boston.com audience, and also that he hates snow.

I love it when he busts too low.

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Yeah those are some UGLY runs. Really bizarre seeing this so close to the event when you have the euro much better looking. 

It’s weird that the midlevel stuff is actually pretty potent out to the west in NY state and then just goes poof as it enters SNE. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares 

It’s not all bad news, ski country up here could use another quarter inch of QPF in a 2-4” refresher.  Been an ugly holiday period before today.  The snowmobile trails could use it.

338188B3-CD00-4512-B3A8-A2CDB2813573.thumb.png.e3756442ac74b14cc5d06fd8c5701ebe.png

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah those are some UGLY runs. Really bizarre seeing this so close to the event when you have the euro much better looking. 

It’s weird that the midlevel stuff is actually pretty potent out to the west in NY state and then just goes poof as it enters SNE. 

Yes, I've learned never to discount anything, let alone pieces of guidance, keep an open mind, there's definitely plenty of signs of a shredded mess.  Glad Euro and EPS is on our side, we will see.  

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If the Euro busts this close in...it’s gonna be an incredibly long winter.
 

 I mean when you’re 24 hrs before go time, and theres modeling that shows practically nothing, and the Euro and its ensembles show high end solid advisory snows....you gotta go with the Euro right now.  So if it flops on its face with this, that’s going to be a huge hole in its armor. 

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’d trust the EPS, but man the Euro OP has been way more amped in multiple coastal low events this season.  It loves to tuck them in.  I’m still shoveling ECMWF snow like the GGEM when it comes to coastal systems, phantom snow on the NW side while it tucks it in.

Hopefully it pulls a rabbit from its hat this time.

Euro wasn't amped enough on 12/17.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

If the Euro busts this close in...it’s gonna be an incredibly long winter.

 I mean when you’re 24 hrs before go time, and theres modeling that shows practically nothing, and the Euro and its ensembles show high end solid advisory snows....you gotta go with the Euro right now.  So if it flops on its face with this, that’s going to be a huge hole in its armor. 

You guys really haven’t been paying attention to the Euro have you?  I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, but these posts make me think no one had seen it’s bias before of being NW of other guidance.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If the Euro busts this close in...it’s gonna be an incredibly long winter.
 

 I mean when you’re 24 hrs before go time, and theres modeling that shows practically nothing, and the Euro and its ensembles show high end solid advisory snows....you gotta go with the Euro right now.  So if it flops on its face with this, that’s going to be a huge hole in its armor. 

The Herps actually showed this too at 18z, odd for that model as it usually has a monsoon for every system....we shall see, could be a blip and all is well by 6z tomorrow

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

You guys really haven’t been paying attention to the Euro have you?  I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, but these posts make me think no one had seen it’s bias before of being NW of other guidance.

It's been much better this year with that, as Ray said it wasn't nearly far enough NW with 12/17.  

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

The Herps actually showed this too at 18z, odd for that model as it usually has a monsoon for every system....we shall see, could be a blip and all is well by 6z tomorrow

Ya I saw that, concerning. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro wasn't amped enough on 12/17.

I guess I’d have to look at the time frame.  Maybe it’s more mid-range lead time.  But I’ve gotten a lot of Euro snow in some of these events this year.  It definitely isn’t the model that tends to be SE of actual, but the lead time probably matters.

Im not saying it’s right or wrong, but the Euro gradually took that event away from here.  Maybe it’s location specific.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You guys really haven’t been paying attention to the Euro have you?  I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, but these posts make me think no one had seen it’s bias before of being NW of other guidance.

No I get what you’re saying. But as Ray just said, it wasn’t amped enough two weeks ago.  So sure, it can be amped happy, but is it this time? And we are 24 hrs out, and it’s gonna flop this badly?  And does the nice looking mid level stuff just going poof as it gets into SNE as the meso’s show, really make sense?   

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s not all bad news, ski country up here could use another quarter inch of QPF in a 2-4” refresher.  Been an ugly holiday period before today.  The snowmobile trails could use it.

338188B3-CD00-4512-B3A8-A2CDB2813573.thumb.png.e3756442ac74b14cc5d06fd8c5701ebe.png

I’ll take the local Jack, doubt that happens

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah those are some UGLY runs. Really bizarre seeing this so close to the event when you have the euro much better looking. 

It’s weird that the midlevel stuff is actually pretty potent out to the west in NY state and then just goes poof as it enters SNE. 

It’s like the Mesos are chasing that lead vorticity offshore 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I guess I’d have to look at the time frame.  Maybe it’s more mid-range lead time.  But I’ve gotten a lot of Euro snow in some of these events this year.  It definitely isn’t the model that tends to be SE of actual, but the lead time probably matters.

Look at any time frame you want....euro was a whiff most of that modeling evolution, and even close in...it had the death band over extreme s NH....then I smoked exhaust while Brian's chickens did naked snow angels in 34"....so don't tell me the shit was too amped.

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