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Stormlover74

January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. I think as we get closer to February the main pattern will be -epo/+pna as the -NAO weakens 

March 2018 was insane for New England

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

March 2018 was insane for New England

Even here we got clocked.   Heavy wet snowstorm after heavy wet snowstorm

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. I think as we get closer to February the main pattern will be -epo/+pna as the -NAO weakens 

that's why this pattern might not favor snow storms in the northern mid atlantic till those are in place - confidence around here will not be very high if we have 2 misses to the south within the  next week and then we get much below normal cold and dry for another week or more - it's when the pattern  with the -NAO starts to relax slightly at the end of the month into February as the -EPO and + PNA  settles in is probably the most favorable time for east coast snow storms and would match perfectly climatology the January 20th - February 11th period so patience is the key IMO.

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

that's why this pattern might not favor snow storms in the northern mid atlantic till those are in place - confidence around here will not be very high if we have 2 misses to the south within the  next week and then we get much below normal cold and dry for another week or more - it's when the pattern  with the -NAO starts to relax slightly at the end of the month into February as the -EPO and + PNA  settles in is probably the most favorable time for east coast snow storms and would match perfectly climatology the January 20th - February 11th period so patience is the key IMO.

The pattern transition should occur during January 10-15. It would be nice to get something during that timeframe, but it isn't assured. Then, there could be 2 to maybe 4 weeks where there is potential. Patterns with potential don't always produce, though, but we'll see how things unfold.

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15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The pattern transition should occur during January 10-15. It would be nice to get something during that timeframe, but it isn't assured. Then, there could be 2 to maybe 4 weeks where there is potential. Patterns with potential don't always produce, though, but we'll see how things unfold.

That’s what makes the 12th appealing IMO. But might be too much noise 

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Hopefully, the EPS is rushing the flip to La Niña in February. Forecasts past  week 2 have lower skill. Sometimes week 3 and beyond just defaults to a climo type composite for the ENSO at the time. 

 

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, the EPS is rushing the flip to La Niña in February. Forecasts past  week 2 have lower skill. Sometimes week 3 and beyond just defaults to a climo type composite for the ENSO at the time. 

 

This sesonal models just default to enso now. It’s been kicking the can on that Niña look all winter. 

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, the EPS is rushing the flip to La Niña in February. Forecasts past  week 2 have lower skill. Sometimes week 3 and beyond just defaults to a climo type composite for the ENSO at the time. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

It can easily change 

Or it could easily fail. Which all models are showing lol. Seems like it's always 10 days away 

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13 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Some great pattern we're in. Nothing In the next 2 weeks. Not even the gefs are interested :cliff:

Who said we were in a great pattern?

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16 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Some great pattern we're in. Nothing In the next 2 weeks. Not even the gefs are interested :cliff:

Lol. Yep, I would want to see the models with 20-30 over nyc currently 

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12 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Or it could easily fail. Which all models are showing lol. Seems like it's always 10 days away 

Hit the showers for a week and then check back in....

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24 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Some great pattern we're in. Nothing In the next 2 weeks. Not even the gefs are interested :cliff:

You are kidding right?

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It's pretty clear that the 1st half of Jan wouldn't be the best however there'd still be opportunities to score.

The 2nd half is filled with potential due to vastly improved pacific drilling in colder air. EPO/PNA improves, AO/NAO stay negative though not so negative as to lead to an 09/10 suppression pattern. 

Normally this would start to break down in Feb in a Nina pattern but the SSW and the atypical Nina atmosphere could easily drag this out further.

Remember how atypical Febs have been in what should've been ideal west-based Nino patterns. 

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36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This sesonal models just default to enso now. It’s been kicking the can on that Niña look all winter. 

It will be interesting to see how long we can keep it going. I am not aware of another La Niña that had +PNA for the whole winter. The +1.58 PNA for December was out of place for a La Niña.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

8DDB9873-2649-463D-A780-F931D3E4F167.thumb.gif.0135dc0647141839d8ce0bec9e6bf62e.gif

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46 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Or it could easily fail. Which all models are showing lol. Seems like it's always 10 days away 

Yes that’s true it could fail but I’d take my chances overall in the pattern setting up.

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Incoming

5ff4b1c9efc3b.png

Too close to the coast but good to see an amped solution even though its alone right now.

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24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Too close to the coast but good to see an amped solution even though its alone right now.

850s are ok and in january thats frozen here

850th.conus.png

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14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s pointless to discuss specifics 180 hours out. 

I realize that but if we're going to talk about 850 temps a week out then we can't ignore 38 degree surface temps 

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13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I realize that but if we're going to talk about 850 temps a week out then we can't ignore 38 degree surface temps 

Its only 38 degrees at the surface because the LP tracks over LI.  Anywhere 40-50 miles west of the LP tack with the airmass in place will do fine. No point at all looking at specifics this far out. Simply look at potential which is a lot of precip coming into cold air in place which hasnt happened since 12/17

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Too close to the coast but good to see an amped solution even though its alone right now.

That system has been in the ECMWF for 3 if the last 5 0z/12z runs. Details have differed, but there’s some potential.

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3 hours ago, Franklin0529 said:

Some great pattern we're in. Nothing In the next 2 weeks. Not even the gefs are interested :cliff:

 

3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

It can easily change 

He's not correct though.   Plenty of storminess on all the ensembles.  I'm not a big fan of anything until after mid month but the 12th(ish) could work out.  

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Who said we were in a great pattern?

 

Literally no one.   But that pattern is coming.   That doesn't mean it will produce though.  

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I realize that but if we're going to talk about 850 temps a week out then we can't ignore 38 degree surface temps 

The setup verbatim in January with this airmass is probably snow and sleet from the city on NW, LI would rain. Either way temps 180 hours is completely pointless

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