BullCityWx Posted January 21 210127/2100Z 159 06006KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 0| 0|100 210128/0000Z 162 03006KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 0| 0|100 210128/0300Z 165 07009KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 0| 0|100 210128/0600Z 168 03009KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.235 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80 0| 0|100 210128/0900Z 171 02011KT 29.7F SNOW 15:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.470 15:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.27 100| 0| 0 210128/1200Z 174 36012KT 26.5F SNOW 11:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.314 14:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.58 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210128/1500Z 177 36014KT 26.0F SNOW 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 13:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65 100| 0| 0 210128/1800Z 180 36011KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65 0| 0| 0 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackGrad05 Posted January 21 Definitely something to watch but still a little far out.. If the signal is still there by Sunday/Monday, I'll start paying more attention. Better than nothing! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted January 21 Whatever much of my tax dollars goes to keep up the GFS, it's too much. This run, the surface low moves 600 miles NW at 156 then transfers to off CHS at 162. Uh huh. Sure. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21 Just now, BullCityWx said: Whatever much of my tax dollars goes to keep up the GFS, it's too much. This run, the surface low moves 600 miles NW. Just a few more weeks till the Para GFS takes over. Can’t come soon enough. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StantonParkHoya Posted January 21 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Just a few more weeks till the Para GFS takes over. Can’t come soon enough. Seems like we say the same thing with every version update. The 2004 version of the Euro was better than what we have in today's U.S. GFS. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
griteater Posted January 21 Don’t see anything positive with the 12z runs thus far. CMC and GFS are running the wave more north. Icon had a good run with the wave (keeps it south) but lacks cold. Likely a tough battle to win here. 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
magpiemaniac Posted January 21 The 12z GFS says, “Not so fast, my southeast friends. But you folks in Payson, Arizona? Well, here’s three feet of snow for you.” 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grayman Posted January 21 1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said: The 12z GFS says, “Not so fast, my southeast friends. But you folks in Payson, Arizona? Well, here’s three feet of snow for you.” CMC also tells us to go home and enjoy our 40 degree rain Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ILMRoss Posted January 21 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: You're the pro so you're seeing things I'm not I am sure. I'm concerned that the flow looked so progressive on the euro. If we can slow it down like we had yesterday at 12z then I think we've got a pretty good signal. This is what I saw: I really like to compare ensembles on if their "seeing" the S/W. GFS ENS did- check the indent over the Missouri Valley on 6z: Euro ENS on same timeframe had a ridge in basically the same place: We hem and haw about how "oh yeah its 7 days away the models dont know anything" but i generally believe the wheat separates from the chaff in the 7-9 day timeframe. If Euro got on board and showed a weaker ridge and stronger S/W signal, that was when I'd start salivating. Unfortunately, 12z models are bending towards the Euro. Hopefully the Euro produces better news in an hour. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BornAgain13 Posted January 21 Geez, I knew it was a week out but I was still gaining some hope that the globals were agreeing somewhat but the 12z runs so far have put a stop to that... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
magpiemaniac Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Geez, I knew it was a week out but I was still gaining some hope that the globals were agreeing somewhat but the 12z runs so far have put a stop to that... I think it’ll come back. Gloriously. 1 1 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted January 21 For what it is worth, the 12z GEFS had a better run than 6z. 35 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: This is what I saw: I really like to compare ensembles on if their "seeing" the S/W. GFS ENS did- check the indent over the Missouri Valley on 6z: Euro ENS on same timeframe had a ridge in basically the same place: We hem and haw about how "oh yeah its 7 days away the models dont know anything" but i generally believe the wheat separates from the chaff in the 7-9 day timeframe. If Euro got on board and showed a weaker ridge and stronger S/W signal, that was when I'd start salivating. Unfortunately, 12z models are bending towards the Euro. Hopefully the Euro produces better news in an hour. Fingers crossed it does. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BornAgain13 Posted January 21 How did the UK look? I know it only goes to 144 , but was it headed for a decent solution? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ILMRoss Posted January 21 15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How did the UK look? I know it only goes to 144 , but was it headed for a decent solution? TBH, glanced at it to confirm my priors that this was a doom and gloom suite, and instead thought it looked pretty good. It only goes to hour 144, but it had a robust shortwave over OK going in a more eastward direction than some other models we've seen. Hopefully it's a harbinger to changes on the Euro, rolling out as we speak. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wncsnow Posted January 21 Looks like the high is too far north and we wont have enough cold air this run. Heavy rain incoming. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
magpiemaniac Posted January 21 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Looks like the high is too far north and we wont have enough cold air this run. Yeah, a 1038 in northern Ontario isn’t going to cut it. My goodness. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wncsnow Posted January 21 Just now, magpiemaniac said: Yeah, a 1038 in northern Ontario isn’t going to cut it. My goodness. Virginia ends up with a good snowstorm. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
magpiemaniac Posted January 21 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Virginia ends up with a good snowstorm. It sure does. I get 3” out of this, but I prefer a southeast special for the crew. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wncsnow Posted January 21 We really need that CAD high to build in faster and further south if you are south of the NC/VA border. Its definitely a miller B type system and bombs out on the coast after the transfer. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21 Pretty significant ice storm here per Euro. Think that’s been a given the past few days. Actually goes from freezing rain to snow. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BornAgain13 Posted January 21 And the Euro throws a bone and gives me 8" lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RT1980 Posted January 21 2 hours ago, BullCityWx said: Whatever much of my tax dollars goes to keep up the GFS, it's too much. This run, the surface low moves 600 miles NW at 156 then transfers to off CHS at 162. Uh huh. Sure. Agreed, we can put a missile through a window pane 4500 miles away but we don’t have much more accurate weather models than 5 years ago. The technology has to be there! I get this is comparing apples to oranges but it seems off! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grayman Posted January 21 Good luck to the N NC and S VA folks as you get to continue to track . Anybody south of at least hwy 64 can fold their cards to me. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wncsnow Posted January 21 15 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Pretty significant ice storm here per Euro. Think that’s been a given the past few days. Still a long ways to go with this one, but at least we have a shot. After this threat it looks like a warm up is coming Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chris624wx Posted January 21 Missing earlier runs that had a more favorable low track for the Hampton Roads area. Still a lot of intrigue though! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Still a long ways to go with this one, but at least we have a shot. After this threat it looks like a warm up is coming A warm up may come, but every time it’s been forecasted in the medium to long range, the SER gets pounded down every time. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wncsnow Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: A warm up may come, but every time it’s been forecasted in the medium to long range, the SER gets pounded down every time. Yea what a great winter we are having 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Met1985 Posted January 21 53 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: A warm up may come, but every time it’s been forecasted in the medium to long range, the SER gets pounded down every time. Yep this winter has felt like winter for sure. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 21 Van Denton @VanFOX8Weather · 7m A day to watch. Thursday, Jan 28th. Since Monday on TV, I have been showing the Snow/Sleet odds and the chance has increased steadily for that day. From 20% on Monday, to 26% on Tues to 33% on Wed and today it is now showing 45%. Still no guarantee and also 7 days away. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites