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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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210127/2100Z 159  06006KT  35.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36    0|  0|100
210128/0000Z 162  03006KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42    0|  0|100
210128/0300Z 165  07009KT  35.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56    0|  0|100
210128/0600Z 168  03009KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.235    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80    0|  0|100
210128/0900Z 171  02011KT  29.7F  SNOW   15:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.470   15:1|  7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.27  100|  0|  0
210128/1200Z 174  36012KT  26.5F  SNOW   11:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.314   14:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.58  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210128/1500Z 177  36014KT  26.0F  SNOW    5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067   13:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65  100|  0|  0
210128/1800Z 180  36011KT  31.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65    0|  0|  0

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Definitely something to watch but still a little far out..   If the signal is still there by Sunday/Monday, I'll start paying more attention.  Better than nothing!

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Whatever much of my tax dollars goes to keep up the GFS, it's too much. This run, the surface low moves 600 miles NW at 156 then transfers to off CHS at 162. Uh huh. Sure. 

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Just a few more weeks till the Para GFS takes over. Can’t come soon enough. 

Seems like we say the same thing with every version update. The 2004 version of the Euro was better than what we have in today's U.S. GFS.

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Don’t see anything positive with the 12z runs thus far. CMC and GFS are running the wave more north. Icon had a good run with the wave (keeps it south) but lacks cold.  Likely a tough battle to win here. 

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1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said:

The 12z GFS says, “Not so fast, my southeast friends.  But you folks in Payson, Arizona?  Well, here’s three feet of snow for you.”

:arrowhead:

CMC also tells us to go home and enjoy our 40 degree rain 

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1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

You're the pro so you're seeing things I'm not I am sure. I'm concerned that the flow looked so progressive on the euro. If we can slow it down like we had yesterday at 12z then I think we've got a pretty good signal. 

This is what I saw: 

I really like to compare ensembles on if their "seeing" the S/W. GFS ENS did- check the indent over the Missouri Valley on 6z:

gfs-ens_z500a_us_28.png

Euro ENS on same timeframe had a ridge in basically the same place:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

 

We hem and haw about how "oh yeah its 7 days away the models dont know anything" but i generally believe the wheat separates from the chaff in the 7-9 day timeframe. If Euro got on board and showed a weaker ridge and stronger S/W signal, that was when I'd start salivating. Unfortunately, 12z models are bending towards the Euro. Hopefully the Euro produces better news in an hour.

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Geez, I knew it was a week out but I was still gaining some hope that the globals were agreeing somewhat but the 12z runs so far have put a stop to that...

I think it’ll come back.  Gloriously.

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For what it is worth, the 12z GEFS had a better run than 6z. 

35 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

This is what I saw: 

I really like to compare ensembles on if their "seeing" the S/W. GFS ENS did- check the indent over the Missouri Valley on 6z:

 

Euro ENS on same timeframe had a ridge in basically the same place:

 

 

We hem and haw about how "oh yeah its 7 days away the models dont know anything" but i generally believe the wheat separates from the chaff in the 7-9 day timeframe. If Euro got on board and showed a weaker ridge and stronger S/W signal, that was when I'd start salivating. Unfortunately, 12z models are bending towards the Euro. Hopefully the Euro produces better news in an hour.

Fingers crossed it does. 

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15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

How did the UK look? I know it only goes to 144 , but was it headed for a decent solution?

TBH, glanced at it to confirm my priors that this was a doom and gloom suite, and instead thought it looked pretty good. It only goes to hour 144, but it had a robust shortwave over OK going in a more eastward direction than some other models we've seen. Hopefully it's a harbinger to changes on the Euro, rolling out as we speak.

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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

Yeah, a 1038 in northern Ontario isn’t going to cut it.  My goodness.

Virginia ends up with a good snowstorm.  

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We really need that CAD high to build in faster and further south if you are south of the NC/VA border. Its definitely a miller B type system and bombs out on the coast after the transfer. 

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2 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

Whatever much of my tax dollars goes to keep up the GFS, it's too much. This run, the surface low moves 600 miles NW at 156 then transfers to off CHS at 162. Uh huh. Sure. 

Agreed,  we can put a missile through a window pane 4500 miles away but we don’t have much more accurate weather models than 5 years ago.  The technology has to be there!  I get this is comparing apples to oranges but it seems off!

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Good luck to the N NC and S VA folks as you get to continue to track .  Anybody south of at least hwy 64 can fold their cards to me.  

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15 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Pretty significant ice storm here per Euro. Think that’s been a given the past few days. 

Still a long ways to go with this one, but at least we have a shot. After this threat it looks like a warm up is coming

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4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

A warm up may come, but every time it’s been forecasted in the medium to long range, the SER gets pounded down every time. 

Yea what a great winter we are having

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53 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

A warm up may come, but every time it’s been forecasted in the medium to long range, the SER gets pounded down every time. 

Yep this winter has felt like winter for sure. 

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Van Denton

@VanFOX8Weather

· 7m

A day to watch. Thursday, Jan 28th. Since Monday on TV, I have been showing the Snow/Sleet odds and the chance has increased steadily for that day. From 20% on Monday, to 26% on Tues to 33% on Wed and today it is now showing 45%. Still no guarantee and also 7 days away.

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