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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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13 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

All Global’s in agreement 7 days out, what in the world is going on?!

Pretty wild . The devil will be in the details . If I lived north of highway 64 and in south Va I would be excited. Hell my town may break the flakeless streak 

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3 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Pretty wild . The devil will be in the details . If I lived north of highway 64 and in south Va I would be excited. Hell my town may break the flakeless streak 

Could end up being a Hwy-1 and US 74 points north and west for NC.  At least to included sleet and ice.  Depends on how stoutly the CAD is driven south.  

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7 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Could end up being a Hwy-1 and US 74 points north and west for NC.  At least to included sleet and ice.  Depends on how stoutly the CAD is driven south.  

You will not believe this but I live 2 miles west of hWY 1 and 7 miles north of 74. The cut off line is always close in these storms. Long way to go but at least we have something to watch for now.

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19 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Euro shows temps in the low 30's for the Triad.  A slopfest is better than nothing, but I'd sure like to see temps of upper 20's or lower.  

TW

You think the CAD might be underdone at this range?

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33 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

That euro map makes it look like 90% of the winter storms in NC...  Wake already on the southeast edge....and the NW trend has a ways to go.

 

Eh, if this were a traditional Miller A, I'd be inclined to agree, however this storm has a bit differentiating it: 1) WAA driven precip; and 2) Excellent CAD setup. The CAD setups are generally undermodeled, so I would anticipate 2m temps to continue trending downward. I could definitely see a trend toward more sleet/ice in NC.

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CAD can always be underdone.  However, I think CAD gets way overplayed on this board.  I can guarantee you that CAD and associated cold is NOT always undermodeled.  A great example was the "ice storm" we had back in December where temps were supposed to be around 31-32 and so many folks talked about how it would trend colder.  Well, it never trended colder and we just did reach 32 and got a little bit of ice in the trees and bushed, but that was about it.  If anything, the models overstated the CAD and cold, but most were pretty close.  I think the thing is, is that we always remember the times where CAD does underperform and it impacts us significantly to the better.  The difference with the storm next week is that there should be colder air available.  

TW

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS Kuchera for late next week's possibility d688e5938847f9eb288e2ef34bc1f703.jpg

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Don’t want to do a in my back yard but the know literally cuts off there. We get raging ice storm. Get the meds ready for me lol

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19 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Track of the surface low looks good. Im still concerned about cold air being in place. At least its under 200 hours out for a change.

The pieces are there if everything can come together, but yeah, it’s no more than a “it could happen” kind of thing in my mind at this point. The setup has to support the wave staying suppressed, while at the same time, enough room to allow it to breathe and produce a storm, especially since it is hot on the tails of the early week storm. The setup to support the damming high looks pretty good, albeit more north than optimal 

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11 minutes ago, griteater said:

The pieces are there if everything can come together, but yeah, it’s no more than a “it could happen” kind of thing in my mind at this point. The setup has to support the wave staying suppressed, while at the same time, enough room to allow it to breathe and produce a storm, especially since it is hot on the tails of the early week storm. The setup to support the damming high looks pretty good, albeit more north than optimal 

As always and especially down here, we need all the pieces of the puzzle to be in place. At least the track looks good and we have precip to track. Now if the upper air data works with us we may have our first storm for a lot of us.  Im too worried about precip types right now

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