Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

[cbmclean]

19 minutes ago, griteater said:

For winter storms, maybe something in between these 2.  1st image is the top 20 -AO + -NAO days on record for Dec-Feb - it has a nice Aleutian Low anomaly and weak western ridging...2nd image is the late Jan to early Mar pattern in 2010

 

For cold, here are the patterns for the top 10 coldest Dec / Jan months (I think I did these for top cold in Charlotte):

Interesting.  The December pattern is quite different in the western cons and in the west Pac.

[BullCityWx]

13 hours ago, wncsnow said:

BullCityWx has been around this board for a while and isn't a weenie. 

 

12 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Nope

 

13 hours ago, griteater said:

So BullCity is the ultimate weenie?  OK. In what way exactly?

Also, your next point about posting timelines - I mean, you always have the option to go take a look at the model for yourself, tropicaltidbits.com.  This kind of fits in to a life rule of mine that nice gestures should always be appreciated, and never expected. So, no need to expect to be spoon fed with model output in here 

Thank you. 
 

looking forward, several models have snow showers for the western triangle and triad on Saturday. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

We need something working for the western Triangle to restore faith in the snow geese.  RAH won’t loosen up until they get a little something.  I kid, I kid.

[frazdaddy]

1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

 

 

Thank you. 
 

looking forward, several models have snow showers for the western triangle and triad on Saturday. 

Add me as one that has learned an awful lot  from your posts over the last 10 years sir.

[BullCityWx]

Just now, frazdaddy said:

Add me as one that has learned an awful lot  from your posts over the last 10 years sir.

Thanks! To be fair, I had some great "hobby mentors" from back in the day. 

[BullCityWx]

3k NAM has snow showers rotating through Chapel Hill and Durham around 18z Saturday. Almost reminds me of the bit of snow we had in early December. We're about 12 hours from the end of the HRRR being in range and that is what really nailed those locations from that far out. 

[CaryWx]

1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

3k NAM has snow showers rotating through Chapel Hill and Durham around 18z Saturday. Almost reminds me of the bit of snow we had in early December. We're about 12 hours from the end of the HRRR being in range and that is what really nailed those locations from that far out. 

Yep,  Also would like to see NAM inside 40hrs or so.  Not bad at 56 right now if seeing that right.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

It doesn’t look like much of a threat,but long range interesting.

[BullCityWx]

1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Yep,  Also would like to see NAM inside 40hrs or so.  Not bad at 56 right now if seeing that right.

It looks okay so far. I've seen some thundersnow on the extracted output so that means it could be very summer like sort of thing.

[BullCityWx]

I know that people are going to think that the 12z Euro looks awful. Yes the storm does head north and yes it does rain and yes it's warm for a day or two. 

 However, if the pattern we think is coming arrives, the 12z Euro just put down 30" over our source regions of air. As long as Canada gets cold and things evolve like it looks like they will, we're eventually going to hit cherries across the slot machine. We focus, and I am guilty of this as much as anyone else, on snow maps but it's fairly easy to catch the pattern evolution here if you ask me. 

[buckeyefan1]

5 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

I know that people are going to think that the 12z Euro looks awful. Yes the storm does head north and yes it does rain and yes it's warm for a day or two. 

 However, if the pattern we think is coming arrives, the 12z Euro just put down 30" over our source regions of air. As long as Canada gets cold and things evolve like it looks like they will, we're eventually going to hit cherries across the slot machine. We focus, and I am guilty of this as much as anyone else, on snow maps but it's fairly easy to catch the pattern evolution here if you ask me. 

It was awful   I didn’t expect the flip to occur until now and the back end of winter is what I’ve been waiting for. Still the best look we’ve had in a very long time and it’s just a matter of time before we score more than just a flizzard   

[CaryWx]

20 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It was awful   I didn’t expect the flip to occur until now and the back end of winter is what I’ve been waiting for. Still the best look we’ve had in a very long time and it’s just a matter of time before we score more than just a flizzard   

I dunno about the "back end of winter" buckeye but believe the next period will be good.  February overall is still up in the air but have to admit the first week looking better. 

[buckeyefan1]

12 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I dunno about the "back end of winter" buckeye but believe the next period will be good.  February overall is still up in the air but have to admit the first week looking better. 

I lived between the portals of cae for almost 25 years, so I only count the 8 weeks from Christmas to Valentine’s Day as winter. For really bad years winter would only be the two weeks in mid January     

[nwohweather]

Unreal model run on the Euro showing a ridge building a week out from today. Widespread 70s from Texas to South Carolina. Have to admit I’m torn, on one hand I’m loving these wide open golf courses, on the other hand it’d be awesome to wear shorts again

[RT1980]

I’m not sold on anything atm outside of 1-2 days.  The SER looks too strong now for the low tracks that we want.  The overall pattern isn’t bad outside of that though!

[Tacoma]

I hate when I tune in and see it's been seven hours since anyone has chimed in, that always spells bad news.  

[NorthHillsWx]

12 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

I hate when I tune in and see it's been seven hours since anyone has chimed in, that always spells bad news.  

Overnight runs weren’t all that bad, gfs and euro both have a potential overrunning event next weekend and CMC sets up for a big storm at the end of its run. GFS back to long range cold euro warms us but I wouldn’t say I see an established SER on any modeling and cold air even on the euro is within striking distance. It doesn’t warm the east coast, mainly keeps the warmup confined to Deep South. An active storm track with system sliding from Midwest SE to the coast, no real cutters but no coastals. Not the worst set of modeling runs by any means

[NorthHillsWx]

I do like how models are beginning to trend to Canada getting cold. We have been missing that for most of the winter. 

[BullCityWx]

Dont sleep on tomorrow. 

[Tacoma]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Overnight runs weren’t all that bad, gfs and euro both have a potential overrunning event next weekend and CMC sets up for a big storm at the end of its run. GFS back to long range cold euro warms us but I wouldn’t say I see an established SER on any modeling and cold air even on the euro is within striking distance. It doesn’t warm the east coast, mainly keeps the warmup confined to Deep South. An active storm track with system sliding from Midwest SE to the coast, no real cutters but no coastals. Not the worst set of modeling runs by any means

Thanks for cheering me up buddy.

[DownS.EasternVa]

 All of Northern NC had a light snowstorm on the 12z CMC. 1-3 even light amounts would be welcomed I'm sure 

[buckeyefan1]

46 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Dont sleep on tomorrow. 

Convective snow showers can offer up surprises 

[Grayman]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I do like how models are beginning to trend to Canada getting cold. We have been missing that for most of the winter. 

I agree . I think we struggle for next 10 days or so but at least with the cold air showing up there is some hope. That’s all I got lol. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m surprised it’s so dead here...

[cbmclean]

27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m surprised it’s so dead here...

Not much going on for at least the next week, unless I missed something new.

[Grayman]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Not much going on for at least the next week, unless I missed something new.

I agree. I think some NC folks chasing a flake tomorrow but I agree it looks to be at least a week. 

[griteater]

59 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m surprised it’s so dead here...

Yeah we’re not far off in the mid and extended range. One thing to watch for is to see if the pattern can become more suppressed than currently shown - sometimes that happens on the modeling in the bigger -NAO’s like this 

[Grayman]

53 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah we’re not far off in the mid and extended range. One thing to watch for is to see if the pattern can become more suppressed than currently shown - sometimes that happens on the modeling in the bigger -NAO’s like this 

Around hour 250 or so Gfs really starts to show the cold locking in. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Not bad.   We may have something cooking soon according to GFS and Canadian 0 Z.

[cbmclean]

Gotta love this one.  540 line down almost to Miami.