cbmclean Posted January 14 19 minutes ago, griteater said: For winter storms, maybe something in between these 2. 1st image is the top 20 -AO + -NAO days on record for Dec-Feb - it has a nice Aleutian Low anomaly and weak western ridging...2nd image is the late Jan to early Mar pattern in 2010 For cold, here are the patterns for the top 10 coldest Dec / Jan months (I think I did these for top cold in Charlotte): Interesting. The December pattern is quite different in the western cons and in the west Pac. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted January 14 13 hours ago, wncsnow said: BullCityWx has been around this board for a while and isn't a weenie. 12 hours ago, CaryWx said: Nope 13 hours ago, griteater said: So BullCity is the ultimate weenie? OK. In what way exactly? Also, your next point about posting timelines - I mean, you always have the option to go take a look at the model for yourself, tropicaltidbits.com. This kind of fits in to a life rule of mine that nice gestures should always be appreciated, and never expected. So, no need to expect to be spoon fed with model output in here Thank you. looking forward, several models have snow showers for the western triangle and triad on Saturday. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 14 We need something working for the western Triangle to restore faith in the snow geese. RAH won’t loosen up until they get a little something. I kid, I kid. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frazdaddy Posted January 14 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: Thank you. looking forward, several models have snow showers for the western triangle and triad on Saturday. Add me as one that has learned an awful lot from your posts over the last 10 years sir. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted January 14 Just now, frazdaddy said: Add me as one that has learned an awful lot from your posts over the last 10 years sir. Thanks! To be fair, I had some great "hobby mentors" from back in the day. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted January 14 3k NAM has snow showers rotating through Chapel Hill and Durham around 18z Saturday. Almost reminds me of the bit of snow we had in early December. We're about 12 hours from the end of the HRRR being in range and that is what really nailed those locations from that far out. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaryWx Posted January 14 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: 3k NAM has snow showers rotating through Chapel Hill and Durham around 18z Saturday. Almost reminds me of the bit of snow we had in early December. We're about 12 hours from the end of the HRRR being in range and that is what really nailed those locations from that far out. Yep, Also would like to see NAM inside 40hrs or so. Not bad at 56 right now if seeing that right. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 14 It doesn’t look like much of a threat,but long range interesting. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted January 14 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Yep, Also would like to see NAM inside 40hrs or so. Not bad at 56 right now if seeing that right. It looks okay so far. I've seen some thundersnow on the extracted output so that means it could be very summer like sort of thing. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted January 14 I know that people are going to think that the 12z Euro looks awful. Yes the storm does head north and yes it does rain and yes it's warm for a day or two. However, if the pattern we think is coming arrives, the 12z Euro just put down 30" over our source regions of air. As long as Canada gets cold and things evolve like it looks like they will, we're eventually going to hit cherries across the slot machine. We focus, and I am guilty of this as much as anyone else, on snow maps but it's fairly easy to catch the pattern evolution here if you ask me. 9 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15 5 hours ago, BullCityWx said: I know that people are going to think that the 12z Euro looks awful. Yes the storm does head north and yes it does rain and yes it's warm for a day or two. However, if the pattern we think is coming arrives, the 12z Euro just put down 30" over our source regions of air. As long as Canada gets cold and things evolve like it looks like they will, we're eventually going to hit cherries across the slot machine. We focus, and I am guilty of this as much as anyone else, on snow maps but it's fairly easy to catch the pattern evolution here if you ask me. It was awful I didn’t expect the flip to occur until now and the back end of winter is what I’ve been waiting for. Still the best look we’ve had in a very long time and it’s just a matter of time before we score more than just a flizzard 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaryWx Posted January 15 20 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: It was awful I didn’t expect the flip to occur until now and the back end of winter is what I’ve been waiting for. Still the best look we’ve had in a very long time and it’s just a matter of time before we score more than just a flizzard I dunno about the "back end of winter" buckeye but believe the next period will be good. February overall is still up in the air but have to admit the first week looking better. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I dunno about the "back end of winter" buckeye but believe the next period will be good. February overall is still up in the air but have to admit the first week looking better. I lived between the portals of cae for almost 25 years, so I only count the 8 weeks from Christmas to Valentine’s Day as winter. For really bad years winter would only be the two weeks in mid January Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nwohweather Posted January 15 Unreal model run on the Euro showing a ridge building a week out from today. Widespread 70s from Texas to South Carolina. Have to admit I’m torn, on one hand I’m loving these wide open golf courses, on the other hand it’d be awesome to wear shorts again 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RT1980 Posted January 15 I’m not sold on anything atm outside of 1-2 days. The SER looks too strong now for the low tracks that we want. The overall pattern isn’t bad outside of that though! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tacoma Posted January 15 I hate when I tune in and see it's been seven hours since anyone has chimed in, that always spells bad news. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, Tacoma said: I hate when I tune in and see it's been seven hours since anyone has chimed in, that always spells bad news. Overnight runs weren’t all that bad, gfs and euro both have a potential overrunning event next weekend and CMC sets up for a big storm at the end of its run. GFS back to long range cold euro warms us but I wouldn’t say I see an established SER on any modeling and cold air even on the euro is within striking distance. It doesn’t warm the east coast, mainly keeps the warmup confined to Deep South. An active storm track with system sliding from Midwest SE to the coast, no real cutters but no coastals. Not the worst set of modeling runs by any means 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15 I do like how models are beginning to trend to Canada getting cold. We have been missing that for most of the winter. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted January 15 Dont sleep on tomorrow. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tacoma Posted January 15 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Overnight runs weren’t all that bad, gfs and euro both have a potential overrunning event next weekend and CMC sets up for a big storm at the end of its run. GFS back to long range cold euro warms us but I wouldn’t say I see an established SER on any modeling and cold air even on the euro is within striking distance. It doesn’t warm the east coast, mainly keeps the warmup confined to Deep South. An active storm track with system sliding from Midwest SE to the coast, no real cutters but no coastals. Not the worst set of modeling runs by any means Thanks for cheering me up buddy. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DownS.EasternVa Posted January 15 All of Northern NC had a light snowstorm on the 12z CMC. 1-3 even light amounts would be welcomed I'm sure 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15 46 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Dont sleep on tomorrow. Convective snow showers can offer up surprises 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grayman Posted January 15 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I do like how models are beginning to trend to Canada getting cold. We have been missing that for most of the winter. I agree . I think we struggle for next 10 days or so but at least with the cold air showing up there is some hope. That’s all I got lol. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthHillsWx Posted January 16 I’m surprised it’s so dead here... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cbmclean Posted January 16 27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’m surprised it’s so dead here... Not much going on for at least the next week, unless I missed something new. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grayman Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Not much going on for at least the next week, unless I missed something new. I agree. I think some NC folks chasing a flake tomorrow but I agree it looks to be at least a week. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
griteater Posted January 16 59 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’m surprised it’s so dead here... Yeah we’re not far off in the mid and extended range. One thing to watch for is to see if the pattern can become more suppressed than currently shown - sometimes that happens on the modeling in the bigger -NAO’s like this Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grayman Posted January 16 53 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah we’re not far off in the mid and extended range. One thing to watch for is to see if the pattern can become more suppressed than currently shown - sometimes that happens on the modeling in the bigger -NAO’s like this Around hour 250 or so Gfs really starts to show the cold locking in. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 16 Not bad. We may have something cooking soon according to GFS and Canadian 0 Z. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cbmclean Posted January 16 Gotta love this one. 540 line down almost to Miami. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites