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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

The forecast for today looks quite different than it did 24 hours
ago, or even 12 hours ago. The stalled front that has been across
the eastern Carolinas for the last few days will still be the main
player in the forecast, but all models, synoptic and convection-
allowing, have shifted the front farther east. While this will still
result in extensive cloud cover and cool temperatures across the
region, it will bring a lower chance of rain to every location west
of I-95.
Pops will be the highest
across western counties between sunrise and noon before diminishing
as the shortwave moves east. However, the entire precipitation
shield should be shifted east since the frontal boundary will be
farther east. Across an area from Burlington to Raleigh and Roanoke
Rapids, have dropped pops down to chance through the daytime. While
the previous forecast kept a slight chance of thunderstorms across
southern counties during the day, and an isolated elevated
thunderstorm could still occur, did not have enough confidence to
keep thunder in the forecast anymore, with barely any instability
present in model profiles.

Similar to today`s forecast, models keep the forecast quite dry
tonight west of I-95. Pops were cut everywhere, and likely were not
cut enough, considering how little precipitation is shown by the
NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and HREF, especially in the Triad. Lows will be in
the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

The changes to Wednesday`s forecast were not as dramatic as the
changes to today`s forecast, but nonetheless pops were cut once
again as the front will be closer to the coast. There are minimal
areas with likely pops east of I-95, but otherwise chance pops will
rule the day. Highs will inch up slightly, rising into the mid to
upper 70s. Expect little change Wednesday night, with chance pops
and lows once again in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

Rain chances Thursday and Friday should largely remain confined to
eastern/coastal NC, INVOF the weakening surface front that will
remain pinned along the coast, with little of the way of PoPs west
of I-95. As of right now, it appears that the best chance for rain
area-wide will be on Saturday, owing to the approach of the
mid/upper level trough. Thereafter, rain chances will primarily be
diurnally driven.

Well, our guaranteed rainfall this week has been changed to a hard “maybe.” Pretty crazy to see models go from 2-4 inches in the triangle for the week to some now showing absolutely nothing in the matter of just a couple days. Feels like snowstorm tracking! At least the cool air is a guaranteed lock!

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  • 2 weeks later...
5 hours ago, yotaman said:

I highly doubt that map. I don't think I have ever seen 50's in early Sept. in my area. Mid to late Sept. yes but not early.

It's probably overdone and may not happen at all, but man it's nice to see a cool off show up repeatedly. Once we get to Sept summer's days are numbered, no matter what 2018 and 2019 have to say about it!

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