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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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Man, this could be an interesting day Thursday. Runs keep moving the precip shield west, as I expected, and the area east of the track looks primed for some severe weather, possibly tornadoes as we often see. Long story short: there should be some very heavy rain (3-4 in) over a swath of central NC with an increasing tornado threat in the eastern half of the state

 

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Man, this could be an interesting day Thursday. Runs keep moving the precip shield west, as I expected, and the area east of the track looks primed for some severe weather, possibly tornadoes as we often see. Long story short: there should be some very heavy rain (3-4 in) over a swath of central NC with an increasing tornado threat in the eastern half of the state

 

Agreed. Not sure if it will get Crabtree going but we shall see.

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4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Some of the guidance actually brings the heaviest rain west of Raleigh now, your way. Looks like a good soaker for much of the Piedmont 

The 11:00 AM cone definitely took a westward shift to the west compared to 8:00 AM.  Still expect RAH to ignore the models and NHC guidance and forecast 0.1” of light rain for me.  j/k

CB9A53ED-4C5A-4B55-8C6D-65E4201C8E24.jpeg

65F0A37D-CA0E-4000-918D-F3F8A5C51C44.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

The 11:00 AM cone definitely took a westward shift to the west compared to 8:00 AM.  Still expect RAH to ignore the models and NHC guidance and forecast 0.1” of light rain for me.  j/k

CB9A53ED-4C5A-4B55-8C6D-65E4201C8E24.jpeg

65F0A37D-CA0E-4000-918D-F3F8A5C51C44.jpeg

Haha, and I expect them to be right too! We've found so many creative ways of having boring weather around here lately

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7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Haha, and I expect them to be right too! We've found so many creative ways of having boring weather around here lately

If I don’t see a big red L in the sky just east of my house tomorrow afternoon, I’ll be gutted.  We’ve had different types of Ls lately with long dry spells and busted forecasts.  I’m excited to (maybe) see some interesting weather.

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 KATL has had only six 90+ days YTD. They're projected to have no more than ~7-9 90+ through 7/17, with no major heat or dry period through 7/24 per model consensus. That means KATL will have a decent chance to not exceed 12 90+ YTD through July 31. I thought it would be fun to speculate on what it would mean based on climo (records back to 1879) for Aug-Oct 90+ days if KATL were to not exceed 12 90+ through July:

 

 37 years back to 1879 with 12 or fewer 90+ through July

-  Not even a single one of these 37 years exceeded 13 90+ days during Aug-Oct

 The average of these 37 was only 7 90+ days for Aug-Oct, which is a mere half of the average of 14 for all years

-  So, not even one of the 37 even hit the average of 14

-  The average for the other 105 years is ~16.5, well over double the 37 years with 12 or fewer 90+ through July

 

What about the hottest day in Aug-Oct?

- For the 37 years with 12 or fewer 90+ days through July, the average hottest day in Aug-Oct was only 92.4 vs the average hottest Aug-Oct day for the other 105 years of 95+.

- For all 37 years, the hottest day in Aug-Oct was only 97 (that was in 1927) with only 5 of the 37 years having the hottest day of 95+ and 26 of the 37 having the hottest Aug-Oct day of only 93 or lower.

 

So, the climo implications of the number of 90+ highs at KATL staying low through July are huge for Aug-Oct as far as the relative lack of intense heat is concerned. That is largely because the relatively moist soil conditions that keep heat in check through July normally persist beyond July. So, I'm quite curious to see where KATL ends up as of 7/31.

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KATL had 11.51" of rainfall in May and June, combined. That makes it the 18th wettest out of 143 (~87th percentile).

 I looked at all May-June periods at 10"+ of rainfall at KATL through 2020, which is 31 of them (22% of them). 25 of the 31 had July hottest below the long-term average July hottest of 95.4. Wet soils are clearly helping to keep Atlanta highs down. So far this month, the hottest at KATL is only 89 and that may not change through the next couple of days.

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Hopefully those of us that have been left out of the rain train will get to cash in this weekend into next week. I'm still kinda impressed cold fronts are even making it this far south, to die in the Bermuda high graveyard, in mid July. (Un)fortunately if this pattern continues our chances for tropical mischief really increases   :weight_lift:  

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