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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

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12 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I think the NE thread is neurotic and then I come here and I realize I have it good near BOX. Lol

Now I don't get that...why would your thread would be neurotic? You guys live in NEW ENGLAND. Average snowfall is what...30-40"? So why? Lol

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I don't get that...why would your thread would be neurotic? You guys live in NEW ENGLAND. Average snowfall is what...30-40"? So why? Lol

That's exactly it. All weenies are emotional, but you all have less, so the highs and the lows are more extreme.

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There’s a 1028mb high literally on top of us with sub 534 thicknesses leading into it. On January 12th. 

Im telling you man. The model just refuses to put blue over us lol


.

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Isn’t it all dynamically driven as shown? I don’t see a high or arctic air in place.  

Remember what we said last year, depending on models to get it right outside of five or six days is fools gold. Too many moving parts. 

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll take that outcome for the 12th. GFS magically runs out of cold air, but I don’t buy that. Looks a lot like euro.

I’ll give Ji one thing...he is right it’s getting a little crazy how despite a perfect h5 look on all the ensembles op runs in general want to shotgun snow all around us but for the most part we aren’t seeing any flush hits.  I bet that changes soon. But it’s odd so far. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll give Ji one thing...he is right it’s getting a little crazy how despite a perfect h5 look on all the ensembles op runs in general want to shotgun snow all around us but for the most part we aren’t seeing any flush hits.  I bet that changes soon. But it’s odd so far. 

A handful of days ago there was literally NOTHING on the models through D15. Now we’re getting some, but still ending up with lots of near misses or disjointed outcomes. Think we’ll see some monster digital snow occasionally at least starting this week. EPS had several big dogs.

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A handful of days ago there was literally NOTHING on the models through D15. Now we’re getting some, but still ending up with lots of near misses or disjointed outcomes. Think we’ll see some monster digital snow occasionally at least starting this week. EPS had several big dogs.

Agree...I do thing the pretty meh airmass hurts the digital snow since we don’t get those storms with HUGE swaths of heavy snow. Without the cold you don’t get that big expansive WAA snow shield to the north so the target zone is more narrow for each storm. Basically it’s deform or bust lol. That decreases the chances of nice clown maps.  As we improve the thermals we likely start seeing more pretty colors. I also have noticed over the years that at range operationals go off the reservation wrt aligning the synoptic results with the longwave pattern. I don’t know why but often once you get inside 150 hours or so suddenly they morph into what climo says that pattern should look like. Hence the storm Friday suddenly went from cutter to suppressed as it got close to that threshold. My take on Friday is it’s mostly about that Quebec nonsense. I think if that trends better this comes north but if that really is going to dive in on top it’s game over up here.  Someone brought it up but that is similar to what happened in Dec 2018. 

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54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A handful of days ago there was literally NOTHING on the models through D15. Now we’re getting some, but still ending up with lots of near misses or disjointed outcomes. Think we’ll see some monster digital snow occasionally at least starting this week. EPS had several big dogs.

Yeah and we knew the airmass was going to be a struggle until at least the 10th. With the blocking a moderate wet snow bomb is possible, but that is still a low probability at this point.  Anyway, signs of some legit cold getting very close by mid month, and h5 looks spectacular.

1610820000-aK9ZNmnxGrQ.png

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice shift in HH eps for Friday.  Less interference from ns . 

Control as well . Nice hit i95 and east 

Lots of members west of the mean.image.thumb.png.16bdc49ac300141303eb6c25ec3d4d33.png

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Control is what we want . You can see the ns sw is north of NY well out of our way.  Real close to a big hit . Nice hit as is for i95 east 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-0150400.png

@CAPEpummeled lol

I'll count on the proverbial last minute north shift to get 6 inch +

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control is what we want . You can see the ns sw is north of NY well out of our way.  Real close to a big hit . Nice hit as is for i95 east 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-0150400.png

@CAPEpummeled lol

I'll count on the proverbial last minute north shift to get 6 inch +

I like how we have basically lost any precip type issues and the only issue now is getting precip in the area.  Lots of very nice hits in the EPS.

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control is what we want . You can see the ns sw is north of NY well out of our way.  Real close to a big hit . Nice hit as is for i95 east 

Yeah , looks good, but when, if ever, has the control made a trend change and the op and ensembles followed? 

Regardless, still have a ways to go on this one. 

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2 minutes ago, thunderman said:

Slightly offtopic, but how does Weatherbell compare to Pivotal?  I cannot find a list of what plots Weatherbell provides.

here’s a screenshot from the model menu.  I ditched Weathermodels because I couldn’t deal with the interface and the delay in data.  Pleased with Weatherbell for the most part.  I haven’t tried Pivotal Plus but the + to Pivotal Plus is likely the Euro soundings that WxBell doesn’t have.

AD367C82-45C5-4654-8DC4-9671327CAD22.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

here’s a screenshot from the model menu.  I ditched Weathermodels because I couldn’t deal with the interface and the delay in data.  Pleased with Weatherbell for the most part.  I haven’t tried Pivotal Plus but the + to Pivotal Plus is likely the Euro soundings that WxBell doesn’t have.

AD367C82-45C5-4654-8DC4-9671327CAD22.jpeg

The Euro soundings is almost a deal breaker for me.

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Interesting read from Matt. So,  basically a temporary relaxation of the Atlantic blocking due to  changes in the AAM tendencies / subsequent fall in the AAM. Matt states this is only temporary, if it were to occur.  It will be of interest to track. 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

wrong thread

How could you! Shameful. Learn to post in the right thread smfh :violin:

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