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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

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Para is a very nice hit from the VA/MD border and south.  All good trends at 12z in my eyes so far. 

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3 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

GFS track is perfect, right? Don't these things always shift north? LOL.

Yes.. usually after they get snow in the south then it gets pulled NW and gets the folks up north! DC Snow Hole! :D

I think we know this timeframe has potential - do we capitalize? Does anyone? We just have to wait and see how the actual outcome evolves! But waiting is the hardest part!

 

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3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Yes.. usually after they get snow in the south then it gets pulled NW and gets the folks up north! DC Snow Hole! :D

I think we know this timeframe has potential - do we capitalize? Does anyone? We just have to wait and see how the actual outcome evolves! But waiting is the hardest part!

 

I'm just glad we have something to track.

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Nice rainstorm on the 12th...more coal for Jis stocking 

Today, it's a rainstorm. ;). Get off the ledge! That's what you taught me. 

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7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Para is a very nice hit from the VA/MD border and south.  All good trends at 12z in my eyes so far. 

where are you getting the 12z para?

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

Today, it's a rainstorm. ;). Get off the ledge! That's what you taught me. 

I’m good.  Just thinking Ji would see it and cliff dive.  Truth is things look better than they have since I can remember.  I may get use out of those off road tires that I didn’t need other than they look cool

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1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

where are you getting the 12z para?

Pivotal
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
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GGEM ticked south from 0z but still snows on VA. 
 

I’m getting fairly interested in the 11/12th period.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Well we know where the pummeling wont be lol.

The Bay is due.

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Looks like all 12z guidance has bumped south a bit. 

Probably not a bad place to 5/6 days out.

More members with southern tracks on the GEFS. Still some good tracks too.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

7” for me and flurries for @mappy. Seems legit 

Ha yeah that’s quite the snow hole 

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

More members with southern tracks on the GEFS. Still some good tracks too.

This is your storm.  The CAPE Crusader storm. 

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It would be pretty remarkable if this solution holds for 6 days. My guess is it ends up more south, north, east or west but not right where it is now. I've learned this from reading experts like Jays Wintry Mix and JayH on twitter and Ji on here. Those three dudes know their stuff

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Gefs looks good for NC and Southern Virginia from what I have seen
The north trend does not apply if it helps us
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1 hour ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Not showing at the surface but with that pass  the precip would be more north and west I would imagine  I like it at this point  

You should definitely ignore precip output on operationals past 100 hours. Frankly even inside that you’re better off applying common sense physics. Once in range meso’s can help pin down details on the banding.

That said the op GFS is a sloppy phase and that’s part of why the ragged unhealthy precip at our latitude. You also won’t get as big a WAA shield to the north when there isn’t as much cold. You need cold to force the warm air to lift. Not enough depth of cold and the warm air just moves the cold and you don’t get the same fgen and VVs.  That’s another reason for the spring storm type precip representation. 

Now the para GFS fits your description. It phases at our latitude clean. It captures and pulls the surface low and tucks it in just off Ocean City.  That run is doing the typical not expansive enough CCB representation thing. That Para run would adjust to an area wide MECS if it actually verified like that. 

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11 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Gefs looks good for NC and Southern Virginia from what I have seen

That’s wonderful news 

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@WxUSAF I would like to see a few less SWs flying around. That one in the 4 corners this week really hurts the wave spacing for Friday. The multiple waves next week makes the 12th tricky. In the end I doubt they all get suppressed but it’s probably making it harder for guidance to key on what to amplify. We likely won’t get a super long track storm with all these waves running interference with one another. 

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