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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

How so?  Most of what I saw was epic blocking and positive temp departure discussion. It might get better after we punt most of January.  We are on the threshold of hell.  How can it get any worse at 0z? 

The blocking could disappear leaving only the positive anomalies.

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m of the mind it doesn’t need to improve if we get a west based block. Actually is the N PAC trough vacates and we get a ridge there that’s a worse look with a -NAO. 

How is a west based NAO block going to help if our source is warm “relatively”, and the PAC doesn’t improve which is necessary to shut off the flow of maritime air cross the continent. No cross polar flow and a crappy PAC... I’m not sure I agree the PAC doesn’t need to improve for our chances to improve. Maybe I missed your point

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7 hours ago, CAPE said:

That is the general look that I was touting last night with the Euro weeklies and this morning on the extended GEFS. I get your point about ridge placement sensitivity, but we are playing with fire almost all the time anyway. As long as that trough isn't a monster sitting over GoA, it think we will be in pretty good shape, and a ridge might get us a little more cold to work with.

 

7 hours ago, Ji said:

The surface don't care

7bbe46a35e4d40c2362166d72b22d7fc.jpg

Guys and girls, we can get the 500mb to look good all day long... but the surface temps are going to destroy our frozen. Watch: PSU will be saying two weeks from now “the pattern progress the way we wanted it but we couldn’t overcome the AN temp anomalies and our source region”. Something like: “perfect track, bad temps”. I get that that the AK low may retro and we pop a PNA and get our west based block. But we have NO COLD AIR! At least by the time it reaches us from its Luke-cold source region. We need that blocking to disappear and build cold, then recycle 3-4 weeks from low and and enjoy a 2-3 week period of winter. Not being a downer, hope I’m wrong but the AN surface temps are going to be a real issue here folks

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Just now, PivotPoint said:

 

Guys and girls, we can get the 500mb to look good all day long... but the surface temps are going to destroy our frozen. Watch: PSU will be saying two weeks from now “the pattern progress the way we wanted it but we couldn’t overcome the AN temp anomalies and our source region”. Something like: “perfect track, bad temps”. I get that that the AK low may retro and we pop a PNA and get our west based block. But we have NO COLD AIR! At least by the time it reaches us from its Luke-cold source region. We need that blocking to disappear and build cold, then recycle 3-4 weeks from low and and enjoy a 2-3 week period of winter. Not being a downer, hope I’m wrong but the AN surface temps are going to be a real issue here folks

If you want to play voodoo outcomes, lets say the SSWE officially triggers on the 5 th of Jan, ( per the Euro )  the cold would not become evident in the East until near January 25 th to Feb 1 st. 

The map above is only January 8th.

Also, keep in mind if the Urals High re-builds we will continue to get +EAMT events.  

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1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

 

Guys and girls, we can get the 500mb to look good all day long... but the surface temps are going to destroy our frozen. Watch: PSU will be saying two weeks from now “the pattern progress the way we wanted it but we couldn’t overcome the AN temp anomalies and our source region”. Something like: “perfect track, bad temps”. I get that that the AK low may retro and we pop a PNA and get our west based block. But we have NO COLD AIR! At least by the time it reaches us from its Luke-cold source region. We need that blocking to disappear and build cold, then recycle 3-4 weeks from low and and enjoy a 2-3 week period of winter. Not being a downer, hope I’m wrong but the AN surface temps are going to be a real issue here folks

I’ll take my chances with the mid-January ensemble 500 maps - that type of west-based -NAO coupled with a less hostile Pacific should provide the ingredients we need for snow in our area.  Granted I’m by no means knowledgeable compared to most here but I find it hard to believe as/if the pattern evolves in January with that block and (hopefully) a better Pacific, we wouldn’t score a storm.  If the Pacific continues to be hostile, I’d be less bullish near the cities.

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1 hour ago, frd said:

If you want to play voodoo outcomes, lets say the SSWE officially triggers on the 5 th of Jan, ( per the Euro )  the cold would not become evident in the East until near January 25 th to Feb 1 st. 

The map above is only January 8th.

Also, keep in mind if the Urals High re-builds we will continue to get +EAMT events.  

I don’t see how my comment of our current base state is vodooo outcomes. I actually think quite the opposite, I believe my point is that I’m not wishcasting for snow but rather looking at where we currently stand and how we logically roll forward. 
 

And with respect to the EAMT events: sure if we get recycling of AN heights that trigger a +EAMT that would bode well down the line for colder anomalies up north... but that’s pretty close to actual vodooo whether that comes to fruition, so

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25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’ll take my chances with the mid-January ensemble 500 maps - that type of west-based -NAO coupled with a less hostile Pacific should provide the ingredients we need for snow in our area.  Granted I’m by no means knowledgeable compared to most here but I find it hard to believe as/if the pattern evolves in January with that block and (hopefully) a better Pacific, we wouldn’t score a storm.  If the Pacific continues to be hostile, I’d be less bullish near the cities.

I’d agree with that last sentence and was kind of my whole point. And I’ve also said that now for over two weeks so it’s not like I’m just jumping on the negative train here. The PAC needs to reshuffle for our chances to improve. I know that’s kind of simpleton logic, but honestly I think things get too tech-y in here sometimes when the current answer (and future improvement) is “sometimes” a little more straightforward. We need our cold source to improve. We need pacific help and some semblance of a mean ridge out west. Then we have a chance that is higher than unicorns and snowmen “it might snow” in this crappy pattern, lol

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9 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I’d agree with that last sentence and was kind of my whole point. And I’ve also said that now for over two weeks so it’s not like I’m just jumping on the negative train here. The PAC needs to reshuffle for our chances to improve. I know that’s kind of simpleton logic, but honestly I think things get too tech-y in here sometimes when the current answer (and future improvement) is “sometimes” a little more straightforward. We need our cold source to improve. We need pacific help and some semblance of a mean ridge out west. Then we have a chance that is higher than unicorns and snowmen “it might snow” in this crappy pattern, lol

We don't necessarily need Pacific help... just time things correctly or have the ridge in the West in the correct spot as a s/w comes through or SLP and we are fine.  We don't need a raging +PNA to get snow around here in January and February... a slightly positive PNA will do the trick

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2 hours ago, PivotPoint said:

How is a west based NAO block going to help if our source is warm “relatively”, and the PAC doesn’t improve which is necessary to shut off the flow of maritime air cross the continent. No cross polar flow and a crappy PAC... I’m not sure I agree the PAC doesn’t need to improve for our chances to improve. Maybe I missed your point

First of all the pac has not been that awful. But we are recovering from this in Nov 

BEB0046C-7169-4E99-9929-2C276FA80BED.gif.f6ab336360b521b6cd7dd8ed84642b23.gif

which left N Amer scorched.  But the means this month are fine. 
A3A7ED79-572E-428C-9AE8-C3449678E278.gif.680764c2b7403b168a761f3fb43b5540.gif

the N Pac trough mean axis is far enough west not to be a major problem.  And despite starting from a warm base state it got cold enough to snow in Richmond and the northern 1/3 of our forum and just to our west Xmas eve.  Right now our bigger problem is we’re still recovering from a late start and the WAR.  There is actually a decent ridge on the pac side right now  

92BD4EBD-371D-453C-9D18-747AECAA7EBD.thumb.png.978a3df32034ad6ab770def20138979f.png

but the last 2 and next system cut because of the WAR!  The pac isn’t the problem.  Now it’s about to be.  A near record low is crashing into the Bering Sea and for a while the whole trough amplifies end shifts east.  This here is no good and kills us for about 7-10 Days  

C401F4F9-2520-4EB2-B238-D89FB9E2B234.thumb.png.e3bfd5d8be2639b63bda2b0c8331fb4d.png

so yea we need that to improve but that’s not been the pac base state and guidance says it’s only temporary and pulls back again  

CAEBC868-98A6-4A9F-9D0E-3070B6570EE2.thumb.png.2b2369a6cead7f13c23b4dc86ac3bb20.png

that there is fine!   It won’t be arctic...but you keep the flow into the east out of northern Canada and it will be cold enough.  It was cold enough for Richmond and Nashville and everyone just NW of 95 2 weeks ago!  
 

lastly what you want isn’t realistic. We’re in a Nina. You want to remove the N pac low and NAO and think we would pop some full lat EPO PNA ridge? No. We would go back to that November look!  The NAO and Aleutian low are all that’s keeping that pattern at bay and you want to toss them?  
 

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, yoda said:

We don't necessarily need Pacific help... just time things correctly or have the ridge in the West in the correct spot as a s/w comes through or SLP and we are fine.  We don't need a raging +PNA to get snow around here in January and February... a slightly positive PNA will do the trick

Yea, but we do. The Pacific/North American oscillation is simply a phase that refers to relative amplitude. The PNA (itself) is not a mechanism. It’s a result of a atmospheric mechanism, specifically phase pressure differences over the central Pacific Ocean and Rossby Wave Effect. So yea, we need PAC help to get a ridge out west

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

First of all the pac has not been that awful. But we are recovering from this in Nov 

BEB0046C-7169-4E99-9929-2C276FA80BED.gif.f6ab336360b521b6cd7dd8ed84642b23.gif

which left N Amer scorched.  But the means this month are fine. 
A3A7ED79-572E-428C-9AE8-C3449678E278.gif.680764c2b7403b168a761f3fb43b5540.gif

the N Pac trough mean axis is far enough west not to be a major problem.  And despite starting from a warm base state it got cold enough to snow in Richmond and the northern 1/3 of our forum and just to our west Xmas eve.  Right now our bigger problem is we’re still recovering from a late start and the WAR.  There is actually a decent ridge on the pac side right now  

92BD4EBD-371D-453C-9D18-747AECAA7EBD.thumb.png.978a3df32034ad6ab770def20138979f.png

but the last 2 and next system cut because of the WAR!  The pac isn’t the problem.  Now it’s about to be.  A near record low is crashing into the Bering Sea and for a while the whole trough amplifies end shifts east.  This here is no good and kills us for about 7-10 Days  

C401F4F9-2520-4EB2-B238-D89FB9E2B234.thumb.png.e3bfd5d8be2639b63bda2b0c8331fb4d.png

so yea we need that to improve but that’s not been the pac base state and guidance says it’s only temporary and pulls back again  

CAEBC868-98A6-4A9F-9D0E-3070B6570EE2.thumb.png.2b2369a6cead7f13c23b4dc86ac3bb20.png

that there is fine!   It won’t be arctic...but you keep the flow into the east out of northern Canada and it will be cold enough.  It was cold enough for Richmond and Nashville and everyone just NW of 95 2 weeks ago!  
 

lastly what you want isn’t realistic. We’re in a Nina. You want to remove the N pac low and NAO and think we would pop some full lat EPO PNA ridge? No. We would go back to that November look!  The NAO and Aleutian low are all that’s keeping that pattern at bay and you want to toss them?  
 

 

 

 

Some points in there well taken but hasn’t the Northern PAC had a fairly stable trough through most the second half of dec? I see a low in gulf of AK and ridging so far west it’s on the the other side of the PAC. And to be clear, I’m not asking for a a full alt PNA ridge from the gulf of AK to San Diego, but yes I think that removing the huge + anomaly around Greenland could have an effect on draining some of that cold air out of East Asia.  Now I’ll admit that I’m not an expert to be able to explain that’s mechanism. But I will say that having a trough out west with a mediocre cold source for us and cold air locked up in Asia is NOT what we want. I see a huge anomaly over Greenland and can’t help but think that this is part of the atmospheric mechanism that is to not allowing cold to travel to our part of the hemisphere. I’m sure some of my rationale is flawed but I have a hunch that there’s part of it that makes sense.

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