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Winter 2020-2021 whining thread


BullCityWx
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32.4 and heavy rain is the ultimate middle finger. “But the models underestimate the cad” “it’ll be colder than forecasted” “just cut the zr maps in half and it’s still major”. Well it’s not the 90’s or early 2000’s anymore. We don’t win border line events in the foothills or NW Piedmont anymore. The ZR maps need a complete overhaul on all the models. The long term weather cycle for this area and winter weather is becoming an absolute joke.

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This wasn’t a storm that typically bust in our favor for cad. Those are storms with an eroding wedge(models erode too fast) or an anonymously dry air mass.

waiting on cad to kick in is usually delayed compared to what models show, and often doesn’t work out. Especially without cold dry air already in place across the region.  

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The last Over performing cad for my backyard was 2018 when all the hi res models had me dropping to A min of 32/33 the night before the the event and had no chance of sleet in the soundings. I wound up hitting 28.3 for a low the next day and got 90% sleet with a little freezing rain at the end and temps never made it above 31 during precipitation. 1 inch of liquid total. That one was a very dry air mass. 

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51 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The models are a complete joke. They have been so wrong here this winter you may as well look at a wooly worm to predict the weather. 

Exactly, I honestly wasn’t “Whining” lmao but yea I agree let’s just go back to using a Wind needle and Compass or hang a flag on top of our house and Get Telegrams from DC every 24hrs 

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Last weekend’s storm was poopooed by RAH for the most part and some ended up not having power for days.  Today’s event had watches and warnings well in advance and it’s looking to be a ho-hum nuisance event.  It’s the weather.  None of us know what we’re doing.  :arrowhead:

The Wichita lineman is heading back to Kansas.

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

This wasn’t a storm that typically bust in our favor for cad. Those are storms with an eroding wedge(models erode too fast) or an anonymously dry air mass.

waiting on cad to kick in is usually delayed compared to what models show, and often doesn’t work out. Especially without cold dry air already in place across the region.  

Just the latest example of a CAD not always over performing. That's the biggest myth repeated on the board.

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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The models are a complete joke. They have been so wrong here this winter you may as well look at a wooly worm to predict the weather. 

i wouldn't contain it to just this winter....they've been bad at predicting for a while now.  We almost always come out with much less than what the models predict...and thats not just this year

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11 hours ago, wncsnow said:

No matter what happens with this storm, we have been screwed this winter in GA, SC, NC and most of VA

It sure has. I'm frustrated but there would be no telling how pissed I'd be if I hadn't got a snow fix  a few weeks ago. 

3 hours ago, AirNelson39 said:

32.4 and heavy rain is the ultimate middle finger. “But the models underestimate the cad” “it’ll be colder than forecasted” “just cut the zr maps in half and it’s still major”. Well it’s not the 90’s or early 2000’s anymore. We don’t win border line events in the foothills or NW Piedmont anymore. The ZR maps need a complete overhaul on all the models. The long term weather cycle for this area and winter weather is becoming an absolute joke.

There were plenty of warning signs though. As burrel said, temps and dewpoints were unimpressive before hand. Its never good when you see a SURGE in dewpoints before hand like what was seen yesterday. Dps rose into the 20s in a lot of areas in nc. Plus the temps aloft were much higher than normal for a good icing cad event. 800 to 850mb temps  above 10c in north Carolina is ridiculous. Not only that the above freezing layer was super deep..on gsos sounding this morning it was from around 650mb to 900mb...which means warm rain. When temps are only marginal that isn't a good recipe for accretion. 

Its a shame...it seems like it takes miracles these days to have a cold and  dry airmass in place anymore. Its even more insane when you consider how cold it's been just west of here. 

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On this date in 1979, one of my favorite storms.  You want cold air?   Snow started right before dawn and temps fell from the low 20's to the low teens by early afternoon.  Some blowing and drifting.  Of course this is known as PD1 and it was spectacular.  Watched from my dorm room in Salisbury in complete awe.

image.thumb.png.fbaa7385ef00d94510c08c4d09a21462.png

 

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18 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

On this date in 1979, one of my favorite storms.  You want cold air?   Snow started right before dawn and temps fell from the low 20's to the low teens by early afternoon.  Some blowing and drifting.  Of course this is known as PD1 and it was spectacular.  Watched from my dorm room in Salisbury in complete awe.

image.thumb.png.fbaa7385ef00d94510c08c4d09a21462.png

 

What an incredible roller coaster ride to go from temps in the low seventies on Friday the 16th to temps in the low teens with heavy snow on Sunday the 18th!1548735385_Feb.1979Paper.jpg.7bd701d701e23c0a70a7a1df1a54b7cb.jpg

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28 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

On this date in 1979, one of my favorite storms.  You want cold air?   Snow started right before dawn and temps fell from the low 20's to the low teens by early afternoon.  Some blowing and drifting.  Of course this is known as PD1 and it was spectacular.  Watched from my dorm room in Salisbury in complete awe.

image.thumb.png.fbaa7385ef00d94510c08c4d09a21462.png

 

I remember it well. Got stuck on a hill (1970 396 Chevelle) in north Raleigh going to pick my buddy up. Like you said "real cold "

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