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HIGH IMPACT Stormy Christmas (EVE and morning) 12/24-25/20 6P-10A


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1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Any chance of a quick spinup?

i asked the same question, i guess it's telling that none of the AFDs mentioned TOR (that i saw).

i guess the helicity isn't really there, and this is more of straight line wind event but it's being driven by the warm front?  idk this is a weird one.

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A good amount of snow melted here the last 48 hours but of course that isn’t the biggest threat down here. We lost a lot of weaker trees from Isaias, Sandy, Mar 2010 etc but Christmas without power is something no one’s looking forward to, and it’ll happen to a lot of people if we have to deal with 70+ mph gusts. 

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46 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

A good amount of snow melted here the last 48 hours but of course that isn’t the biggest threat down here. We lost a lot of weaker trees from Isaias, Sandy, Mar 2010 etc but Christmas without power is something no one’s looking forward to, and it’ll happen to a lot of people if we have to deal with 70+ mph gusts. 

Would be a lot more alcohol consumption 

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

A good amount of snow melted here the last 48 hours but of course that isn’t the biggest threat down here. We lost a lot of weaker trees from Isaias, Sandy, Mar 2010 etc but Christmas without power is something no one’s looking forward to, and it’ll happen to a lot of people if we have to deal with 70+ mph gusts. 

Outside of tropical systems when was the last time our area had 70+ mph gusts from a nor’easter? Not counting the immediate east end of LI

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The maxed out ECMWF ensemble 850 mb winds mentioned in the great NWS Boston AFD.

 

I'm not sure it will be the highest *ever* recorded in that time period- that seems dubious to me.  In the Euro forecast they are talking about 75 mph wind gusts both here on Long Island AND in NE PA in the Poconos, which would be amazing.  But still this storm wouldn't be anything like what the amazing December 1992 noreaster was.  That one set the bar (and not just for December).  I dont think this could come close to matching that.

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Good Wednesday morning: There isn't much more to say except prepare for power outages,  wind damage (outdoor decorations etc) and follow NWS Flood statements warnings. 

Topic Edit 518AM Wednesday 12/23: No significant changes.  The prime threat period might by 2 hours too fast but not enough evidence to change the primary initialization period of weather related issues. My assessment tells me to prepare, without science, for many many thousands without power starting 9PM to midnight Christmas Eve evening, and then across se NYS, LI, CT, MA beginning midnight to 6AM Christmas morning. Gusts NYC airports should be 45-55kt, with potential for isolated 65KT LI/CT/MA.  I expect SVR's for the HSLC lines of heavy showers to help focus the primary short-fuse threats.  Lower chance of any damage northeast PA but ridges there will be most vulnerable there to ~ 55 MPH gusts.  There is limited science on power outage wind damage with leaved trees, without, softer unfrozen ground versus frozen but I don't have this information nor any private services predictive algorithms.  I still think that wind damage will prevail as the most important aspect of this storm, but please follow NWS flood watches, warnings as issued, due to the combined snowmelt and new widespread NYC subforum rainfall of 1-2", with isolated 4" potential inland-most of this in a 9 hour period during Thursday night, Any snow on the backside is exceedingly minor on the I84 high terrain. There actually might be a little better chance for a slight coating of snow Christmas night with the weakening trough aloft passage. I added the 5AM Watch for the USA highlighting the interior flood watches and the coastal High Wind. Also the 00z/GEFS chance of 60+MPH gusts for the period of ~ 6z-12z/25...impressive!  and HRRR and NAM max gust potential ~ 1AM Christmas morning. 525A.

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 read the doubts about wind. Here's my suggestion; Review all the High Wind topics and note the performance (we verify all these) of the topic that takes into consideration a slight high bias in guidance in advance, of the EC and HRRR wind gust algorithm.  It's not by more than 5 knots (if we did a study)  I'll add two graphics from the 06z/23 HRRRX for 06z/25 only...  use the legend and lets see what happens.  Take at most 5 knots off the HRRRX GUST wind guidance or just use the knots as MPH.  Should be very close.

It's an extensive problem that is coming.  I also added the 80m wind...  if you don't like the option from the gust algorithm, then use the lower speed 80m wind guidance as your gust.  Maybe that will verify better.  We never know for sure in advance, but it's better to prepare.   If the models are right,  and in advance we dismiss as way too high, sooner or later we automate these model guidances and outperform humans. The models are slowly improving. Gotta run. Back this afternoon, Walt 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The balloon sounding record for December in our area is close to 90 KT. But it doesn’t say which year the record occurred. The NAM has 850 mb winds maxing out near 95 KT . So it will be interesting to see if the strongest winds get over OKX for their 12z launch. From the spike near the start of December, my guess is that the record was in December 2, 1974. Several locations near the coast had 70 mph + gusts.

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Chris was that a greater event than Dec 1992?  Weren't a lot of our surge records before Sandy from Dec 1992?

 

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