Tatamy Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z Euro maximum projected wind gusts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Any chance of a quick spinup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 44 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z Euro maximum projected wind gusts How accurate are these maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: How accurate are these maps? I feel like winds are always overdone in these type of storms 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, TriPol said: Any chance of a quick spinup? i asked the same question, i guess it's telling that none of the AFDs mentioned TOR (that i saw). i guess the helicity isn't really there, and this is more of straight line wind event but it's being driven by the warm front? idk this is a weird one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, justinj said: I feel like winds are always overdone in these type of storms how many setups do we see that look like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 A good amount of snow melted here the last 48 hours but of course that isn’t the biggest threat down here. We lost a lot of weaker trees from Isaias, Sandy, Mar 2010 etc but Christmas without power is something no one’s looking forward to, and it’ll happen to a lot of people if we have to deal with 70+ mph gusts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 46 minutes ago, jm1220 said: A good amount of snow melted here the last 48 hours but of course that isn’t the biggest threat down here. We lost a lot of weaker trees from Isaias, Sandy, Mar 2010 etc but Christmas without power is something no one’s looking forward to, and it’ll happen to a lot of people if we have to deal with 70+ mph gusts. Would be a lot more alcohol consumption 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Would be a lot more alcohol consumption Will be the case regardless lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Wait till march when this was the only snowstorm this year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Dangerous winds on the Nam for Christmas morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: A good amount of snow melted here the last 48 hours but of course that isn’t the biggest threat down here. We lost a lot of weaker trees from Isaias, Sandy, Mar 2010 etc but Christmas without power is something no one’s looking forward to, and it’ll happen to a lot of people if we have to deal with 70+ mph gusts. Outside of tropical systems when was the last time our area had 70+ mph gusts from a nor’easter? Not counting the immediate east end of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Dangerous winds on the Nam for Christmas morning how high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, justinj said: Outside of tropical systems when was the last time our area had 70+ mph gusts from a nor’easter? Not counting the immediate east end of LI 12/92 and 3/10....both near 80 mph....I dont think this could match either of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 hours ago, bluewave said: The maxed out ECMWF ensemble 850 mb winds mentioned in the great NWS Boston AFD. I'm not sure it will be the highest *ever* recorded in that time period- that seems dubious to me. In the Euro forecast they are talking about 75 mph wind gusts both here on Long Island AND in NE PA in the Poconos, which would be amazing. But still this storm wouldn't be anything like what the amazing December 1992 noreaster was. That one set the bar (and not just for December). I dont think this could come close to matching that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Good Wednesday morning: There isn't much more to say except prepare for power outages, wind damage (outdoor decorations etc) and follow NWS Flood statements warnings. Topic Edit 518AM Wednesday 12/23: No significant changes. The prime threat period might by 2 hours too fast but not enough evidence to change the primary initialization period of weather related issues. My assessment tells me to prepare, without science, for many many thousands without power starting 9PM to midnight Christmas Eve evening, and then across se NYS, LI, CT, MA beginning midnight to 6AM Christmas morning. Gusts NYC airports should be 45-55kt, with potential for isolated 65KT LI/CT/MA. I expect SVR's for the HSLC lines of heavy showers to help focus the primary short-fuse threats. Lower chance of any damage northeast PA but ridges there will be most vulnerable there to ~ 55 MPH gusts. There is limited science on power outage wind damage with leaved trees, without, softer unfrozen ground versus frozen but I don't have this information nor any private services predictive algorithms. I still think that wind damage will prevail as the most important aspect of this storm, but please follow NWS flood watches, warnings as issued, due to the combined snowmelt and new widespread NYC subforum rainfall of 1-2", with isolated 4" potential inland-most of this in a 9 hour period during Thursday night, Any snow on the backside is exceedingly minor on the I84 high terrain. There actually might be a little better chance for a slight coating of snow Christmas night with the weakening trough aloft passage. I added the 5AM Watch for the USA highlighting the interior flood watches and the coastal High Wind. Also the 00z/GEFS chance of 60+MPH gusts for the period of ~ 6z-12z/25...impressive! and HRRR and NAM max gust potential ~ 1AM Christmas morning. 525A. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Nam is very impressive gust 70+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 High Wind Watch has been extended by OKX to cover all of NYC, lower Westchester and Hudson County NJ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 read the doubts about wind. Here's my suggestion; Review all the High Wind topics and note the performance (we verify all these) of the topic that takes into consideration a slight high bias in guidance in advance, of the EC and HRRR wind gust algorithm. It's not by more than 5 knots (if we did a study) I'll add two graphics from the 06z/23 HRRRX for 06z/25 only... use the legend and lets see what happens. Take at most 5 knots off the HRRRX GUST wind guidance or just use the knots as MPH. Should be very close. It's an extensive problem that is coming. I also added the 80m wind... if you don't like the option from the gust algorithm, then use the lower speed 80m wind guidance as your gust. Maybe that will verify better. We never know for sure in advance, but it's better to prepare. If the models are right, and in advance we dismiss as way too high, sooner or later we automate these model guidances and outperform humans. The models are slowly improving. Gotta run. Back this afternoon, Walt 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Mt. Holly NWS sounding a bit more concerned this morning and strongly suggest widespread wind advisories and potentially expanded HWW. So it might be a wild Xmas Eve/early Xmas morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12 hours ago, justinj said: I feel like winds are always overdone in these type of storms chop by 25% and it's still a decent event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 When out on the roof there arose such a clatter, I sprang from my bed to see what was the matter... Twas the NAM predicting winds of 87 miles per hour. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: 12/92 and 3/10....both near 80 mph....I dont think this could match either of those How did you guys do in 10/17? That was a beast out here and especially out towards eastern Mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I will be going to my aunt's house in Staten Island on Christmas. The traffic is going to be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Nam has gust to almost 80 southern parts of nyc and Long Island. Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I will be going to my aunt's house in Staten Island on Christmas. The traffic is going to be insane. Travel safe, Anthony and wish the family buon Natale for chin don. As always ........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, rclab said: Travel safe, Anthony and wish the family buon Natale for chin don. As always ........ Thank you We are having a small family gathering 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I will be going to my aunt's house in Staten Island on Christmas. The traffic is going to be insane. Be safe. Have a great Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Be safe. Have a great Christmas. Thank you Same to you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The balloon sounding record for December in our area is close to 90 KT. But it doesn’t say which year the record occurred. The NAM has 850 mb winds maxing out near 95 KT . So it will be interesting to see if the strongest winds get over OKX for their 12z launch. From the spike near the start of December, my guess is that the record was in December 2, 1974. Several locations near the coast had 70 mph + gusts. Chris was that a greater event than Dec 1992? Weren't a lot of our surge records before Sandy from Dec 1992? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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