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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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1 hour ago, pawatch said:

And we just got bumped

 

image.png

Now thats a confidence booster.  Just looked at the 18z GFS and it looks better than 12z 

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South Central PA along and east of the LSV has been bullseyed pretty consistently over the last few model runs. I'm barely in CTP territory (three miles west of Chester County line) but feeling really good for all of us out here. The large margin for error helps. 

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Just now, Mshaffer526 said:

South Central PA along and east of the LSV has been bullseyed pretty consistently over the last few model runs. I'm barely in CTP territory (three miles west of Chester County line) but feeling really good for all of us out here. The large margin for error helps. 

I'm really happy you're posting here. You live in an area where we don't have any posters. I always enjoy reading your posts on Philly weather. :) 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm really happy you're posting here. You live in an area where we don't have any posters. I always enjoy reading your posts on Philly weather. :) 

Thanks! Yeah, I'm in that weird no man's land between the two climo areas. I always love calling my reports into CTP, I might as well be reporting from the Moon. :D

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Just a couple of thoughts:

1) I am in awe at the duration of this event. Usually these storms last 9 to 15 hours and done. 48 hours or longer for this one? The end time of this storm is still pretty deep into the model integrations, so there could still be significant error in the models for the second half of the storm.

2) It wouldn't surprise if the heaviest totals end up north and west of currently advertised, as they did significantly with the December storm. First, the models seem to be trending toward tucking the low tighter and tighter into the Delmarva. That makes sense for baroclinic reasons. Second, I have a hypothesis that the models do not advect snow as it falls through the column. It just piles the precipitation up where it falls from the cloud. Assuming the snow falls 1000 m from cloud base at a downward velocity of 1 m/s in a background wind of 20 m/s, the snow could easily be blown 20 km to the west as it falls in the strong easterly winds.

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, anotherman said:


Holy. Crap.

That does include today's storm so for the LSV its a 10-20" total for next weekend.  Just thought I would post the full run total for posterity. 

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