Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Gfs looks really really good. Yes, that’s for sure! CCB going to town! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30 GFS absolutey obliterates us! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 30 So this must mean the GFS/EURO rule exists now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MAG5035 Posted January 30 It's time guys, I did the thing. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
2001kx Posted January 30 So should we expect closer to the Kuchera totals or ? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pasnownut Posted January 30 1 hour ago, pawatch said: And we just got bumped Now thats a confidence booster. Just looked at the 18z GFS and it looks better than 12z Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AllWeather Posted January 30 42 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I think @paweather @pasnownut @AllWeather would need a cigarette if the RGEM verified. A cigar and a glass of Johnnie Walker Blue Label, please. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mshaffer526 Posted January 30 South Central PA along and east of the LSV has been bullseyed pretty consistently over the last few model runs. I'm barely in CTP territory (three miles west of Chester County line) but feeling really good for all of us out here. The large margin for error helps. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30 Just now, Mshaffer526 said: South Central PA along and east of the LSV has been bullseyed pretty consistently over the last few model runs. I'm barely in CTP territory (three miles west of Chester County line) but feeling really good for all of us out here. The large margin for error helps. I'm really happy you're posting here. You live in an area where we don't have any posters. I always enjoy reading your posts on Philly weather. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mshaffer526 Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm really happy you're posting here. You live in an area where we don't have any posters. I always enjoy reading your posts on Philly weather. Thanks! Yeah, I'm in that weird no man's land between the two climo areas. I always love calling my reports into CTP, I might as well be reporting from the Moon. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cfbaggett Posted January 30 Just a couple of thoughts: 1) I am in awe at the duration of this event. Usually these storms last 9 to 15 hours and done. 48 hours or longer for this one? The end time of this storm is still pretty deep into the model integrations, so there could still be significant error in the models for the second half of the storm. 2) It wouldn't surprise if the heaviest totals end up north and west of currently advertised, as they did significantly with the December storm. First, the models seem to be trending toward tucking the low tighter and tighter into the Delmarva. That makes sense for baroclinic reasons. Second, I have a hypothesis that the models do not advect snow as it falls through the column. It just piles the precipitation up where it falls from the cloud. Assuming the snow falls 1000 m from cloud base at a downward velocity of 1 m/s in a background wind of 20 m/s, the snow could easily be blown 20 km to the west as it falls in the strong easterly winds. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bubbler86 Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: Holy. Crap. That does include today's storm so for the LSV its a 10-20" total for next weekend. Just thought I would post the full run total for posterity. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FHS Posted February 22 third time a charm, or strike three Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
