NEG NAO Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 47 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: If the 00z nam verified there would be alot of people jumping off bridges in New England. It won't though. its still on the table chances are this storm won't get going till it moves north and only hits eastern maine and points north and east from 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 981 on the benchmark and raining here Sick joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 981 on the benchmark and raining here Sick joke If you wanted some miraculous way for snow to make it to the coast, the GFS is how you'd do it. It's likely too warm at the surface like always. Wouldn't be significant but could be a quick 2-3" in the CCB it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If you wanted some miraculous way for snow to make it to the coast, the GFS is how you'd do it. It's likely too warm at the surface like always. Wouldn't be significant but could be a quick 2-3" in the CCB it develops. plus the follow up storm for the 8th is still on the table and colder air will be available - like that HP in southern Canada with some blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 And yes if the airmass was a little colder this would be 12-18" for the whole forum. That's a classic track on the GFS (for the Sat storm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And yes if the airmass was a little colder this would be 12-18" for the whole forum. That's a classic track on the GFS (for the Sat storm). No weekend rule in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 @wdrag unless something changes drastically in the next 8-12 hours this really doesn't look like anything overly impressive for our region IMO. At least not the higher impacts we were thinking 24-48 hours ago. Well see how it plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 At this point I’m worried about the next storm and hope this storm does what it does to help bring the next storm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 Good Friday morning everyone, Tough to stomach but my upgraded expectation from predawn yesterday (Thursday Dec 3), doesn't look like it will happen. Instead the base topic discussion from two days ago looks to be my own perception of accurate considerations for the NYC forum. GFS HRRR are closest holdouts for high impact, so I don't completely give up, but overall---modeling does not have the 06z/4 HRRR as a consensus solution in our NYC regional forum. I'm monitoring the 12z and 18z HRRR for trends on precip shield and gusts (it should be further east if all the other 00z/06z operational modeling is reliable). HRRR tends to run slightly warm on its profiles. It is the model that seems to have the comma head precip, furthest west tomorrow morning. IF that remains the case through the 18z cycle today, then we're in better shape for a higher impact event for LI/CT. My 00z-06z/4 model based snow expectation ne PA/nw NJ is Trace -2"; Litchfield Hills in our area 1-4" of snow tomorrow morning. Gusts 45-55MPH e LI and NJ coasts Saturday morning-midday with this mornings D1-2WPC issuance qpf sufficing which says no NEW flooding risk for NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: The latest euro run 6z has 1-2 inches for New York City itself I think Long Island may have an opportunity to get 3-4 if that depiction is right as the CCB gets cranking! It’s definitely chilly this morning a lot colder than I thought it would be! I assume you're talking inches of rain not snow? Eastern areas favored for sure for heaviest precip-sharp QPF cutoff on the Euro west of NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 19 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: The latest euro run 6z has 1-2 inches for New York City itself I think Long Island may have an opportunity to get 3-4 if that depiction is right as the CCB gets cranking! It’s definitely chilly this morning a lot colder than I thought it would be! Image ? I am seeing no snow at all unless the models are too warm with the ccb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Image ? I am seeing no snow at all unless the models are too warm with the ccb. The storm doesn't really mature until it's mostly past this area. The CCB develops late, just in time for it to wallop Central and Northern New England. Even the 06z GFS has jumped ship for our area and now has the more suppressed solution. Someone in New Hampshire is going to get well over a foot of snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: Snow buddy snow 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: yeah that's nothing for our area. Some flakes after 2 inches of rain won't amount to much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The storm doesn't really mature until it's mostly past this area. The CCB develops late, just in time for it to wallop Central and Northern New England. Even the 06z GFS has jumped ship for our area and now has the more suppressed solution. Someone in New Hampshire is going to get well over a foot of snow. Welcome to La Nina winters 7 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: Snow buddy snow Dude come on Even i know that's nothing 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 34 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: The latest euro run 6z has 1-2 inches for New York City itself I think Long Island may have an opportunity to get 3-4 if that depiction is right as the CCB gets cranking! It’s definitely chilly this morning a lot colder than I thought it would be! The only way we get any snow is if the CCB really blossoms over our area and can bring some cold air down for a time. If it develops too late (which is likely) it’ll be a cold rain that we watch develop into a big snow event as it does get together for New England including possibly Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The only way we get any snow is if the CCB really blossoms over our area and can bring some cold air down for a time. If it develops too late (which is likely) it’ll be a cold rain that we watch develop into a big snow event as it does get together for New England including possibly Boston. This storm could have been a good one for us if there was cold air already in place or if the storm bomb out near SNJ. The low track and the strength is really good for our area but the airmass sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 39 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: The latest euro run 6z has 1-2 inches for New York City itself I think Long Island may have an opportunity to get 3-4 if that depiction is right as the CCB gets cranking! It’s definitely chilly this morning a lot colder than I thought it would be! 40 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: The latest euro run 6z has 1-2 inches for New York City itself I think Long Island may have an opportunity to get 3-4 if that depiction is right as the CCB gets cranking! It’s definitely chilly this morning a lot colder than I thought it would be! No not really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: I was just pointing out what the best model in the world depicted! I still think we can get some snow in New York and especially Long Island and western Connecticut as the low pulls out and it bombs out. with temps in the 40's and the ground saturated by 2 inches of rain? LOLZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 If the rain later today and tonight underperforms some areas in the interior might not even get much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Some slight improvements on the 3K 12z NAM from the 06z run but no real significant impact changes except for Eastern Long Island which seems locked in for a driving rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 So for tomorrow's storm no use looking at today's model runs for NW NJ and the Catskills; this is a New England special, no western nudging possible, right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, sferic said: So for tomorrow's storm no use looking at today's model runs for NW NJ and the Catskills; this is a New England special, no western nudging possible, right ? I think It's pretty much a non event N and W. I'm a little north of 84 and we are looking like .50 liquid and very little if any frozen. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: with temps in the 40's and the ground saturated by 2 inches of rain? LOLZ It’s always very cold and snowy in Wennieland.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 14 hours ago, jm1220 said: Maybe. Looking more and more like a late developer that slams eastern New England like a warmer version of Juno. CCB blows up and it snows like crazy right down to the coast in Mass. Just forms too late for us here and the beforehand airmass is awful. Would this be considered a Miller B? Those are the ones most likely to have precip patterns like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, JoshSnow said: The temperatures are going to be falling throughout the day tomorrow. We’ll see I may be wrong but that’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it. and that's why your name is JoshSnow and not JoshRain ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: The only way we get any snow is if the CCB really blossoms over our area and can bring some cold air down for a time. If it develops too late (which is likely) it’ll be a cold rain that we watch develop into a big snow event as it does get together for New England including possibly Boston. You guys think this is bad....look up Feb 1989 lol. A busted forecast for 8 inches of snow, we got inches of virga instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, JoshSnow said: Snow buddy snow You have an app called SnowBuddy? Did Metfan write it?! All I hear are "crickets" 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 hours ago, wdrag said: Good Friday morning everyone, Tough to stomach but my upgraded expectation from predawn yesterday (Thursday Dec 3), doesn't look like it will happen. Instead the base topic discussion from two days ago looks to be my own perception of accurate considerations for the NYC forum. GFS HRRR are closest holdouts for high impact, so I don't completely give up, but overall---modeling does not have the 06z/4 HRRR as a consensus solution in our NYC regional forum. I'm monitoring the 12z and 18z HRRR for trends on precip shield and gusts (it should be further east if all the other 00z/06z operational modeling is reliable). HRRR tends to run slightly warm on its profiles. It is the model that seems to have the comma head precip, furthest west tomorrow morning. IF that remains the case through the 18z cycle today, then we're in better shape for a higher impact event for LI/CT. My 00z-06z/4 model based snow expectation ne PA/nw NJ is Trace -2"; Litchfield Hills in our area 1-4" of snow tomorrow morning. Gusts 45-55MPH e LI and NJ coasts Saturday morning-midday with this mornings D1-2WPC issuance qpf sufficing which says no NEW flooding risk for NJ. I very much doubt we will see 1" of rain let alone 1" of snow. You worked so hard Walt, it isn't your fault, the cut off was just too sharp with this and for some storms, you really can't pin down details until within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Gfs ticking west. This sub forum would be going crazy if it was 10 degrees colder lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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