December 4th-5th, 2020 Nor'easter

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I can’t remember the last time the Euro jumped around this much from run to run. Maybe one of the recent upgrades threw the model off?

 

The operational Euro has been God awful, just dreadful, even the GFS has been better. It’s almost not even worth looking at anymore, erratic as all hell

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro has been God awful, just dreadful, even the GFS has been better

It did very well from Hurricane Sandy in 2012 to Nemo in February 2013. But really stumbled with the January 2015 event. It  managed to do very well with Joaquin in 2015. Too suppressed with the January 2016 blizzard.  Also too close to Houston with Laura. So maybe the amazing job it did with Sandy just set expectations too high. That  will stand as the forecast of the century in my book.

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It did very well from Hurricane Sandy in 2012 to Nemo in February 2013. But really stumbled with the January 2015 event. It  managed to do very well with Joaquin in 2015. Too suppressed with the January 2016 blizzard.  Also too close to Houston with Laura. So maybe the amazing job it did with Sandy just set expectations too high. That  will stand as the forecast of the century in my book.

Eric Fisher actually just tweeted about this, as you can see, the 12z EPS says its own operational solution for this weekend is garbage: 

 

[wdrag]

Keep discussiing... I've been off line since 630A (floor install). Have checked some ensembles etc from the 12z cycle and generally a southeastward trend... however, there is time to come back a little.  I probably wont comment much more til Thursday morning 630A.  I see the 18z NAM looks a little further north and slower on qpf. Think it best to wait this out a bit.  For now, I don 't see any worse than what was written in the topic...SST above normal mid Atlantic waters. 

[crossbowftw3]

I got my eyes on this one. First legit snow chance of the year no matter what happens. I'll take an advisory level snow if that's what ultimately occurs but if much more happens that's just extra fun.

[romba]

84 hr 18z NAM

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It did very well from Hurricane Sandy in 2012 to Nemo in February 2013. But really stumbled with the January 2015 event. It  managed to do very well with Joaquin in 2015. Too suppressed with the January 2016 blizzard.  Also too close to Houston with Laura. So maybe the amazing job it did with Sandy just set expectations too high. That  will stand as the forecast of the century in my book.

Agree. It’s definitely not the January 2014 euro anymore. It’s still the model I would want on my side inside 72 hours. Over the pass few years it has become very erratic. 

[Allsnow]

The idv eps members had a good amount slamming western sne and upstate ny 

[Allsnow]

This is turning into a classic early winter Nor’easter. Perfect track for snow just not cold enough near the coast 

[Brian5671]

18z GFS with its usual suppressed solution at this range....

[bluewave]

This will be the first storm for the upgraded HRRR once we get within its effective range,

 

[Heisy]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will be the first storm for the upgraded HRRR once we get within its effective range,

 

Awesome thanks for the info had no clue. If we get some model agreement by 12z tomorrow on something similar to a 18z EURO or NAM situation then I’m contemplating a road trip. I hate making trips though where storm precip type and track are in question.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Awesome thanks for the info had no clue. If we get some model agreement by 12z tomorrow on something similar to a 18z EURO or NAM situation then I’m contemplating a road trip. I hate making trips though where storm precip type and track are in question.

We could get another big track jump by 0z or 12z. The ICON just came pretty far west at 18z. Maybe it will take another run or two for the models to converge.

 

 

[wdrag]

My last of the evening... I saw the 18z/2 EC... well, if this occurs, it's HIGH impact for our area...probably more than 11/30.   Until I see the GGEM/RGEM climb back aboard,  I'm going to hesitate and temper. I maintain,  no big synoptic scale qpf if the GGEM is not on board. I just don't see the GGEM fail.  If anyone else sees it different, let me know.  When the GGEM is dry,  think twice.  

Anyway, time for a northward trend in the 00z/3 cycle. 

With anomalously warm SST along the mid-Atlantic coast, if the short wave does go negative and close off, it would be explosive development and that development has been signaled by the EC/NAM the last several cycles.  Exactly where this occurs?  

Lot's of potential ahead... let's see how much is yielded. 

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We could get another big track jump by 0z or 12z. The ICON just came pretty far west at 18z. Maybe it will take another run or two for the models to converge.

 

Caught my attention.  Whilst the JMA is so flat and fast, we'd get 1/4" rain at LGA.  We've been blessed with excellent lead time signals in the modeling (5+days).  This one more like previous winters. By the way, posting in a minute...CLE area had 10-20 ending early this morning. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Caught my attention.  Whilst the JMA is so flat and fast, we'd get 1/4" rain at LGA.  We've been blessed with excellent lead time signals in the modeling (5+days).  This one more like previous winters. By the way, posting in a minute...CLE area had 10-20 ending early this morning. 

Hopefully more storms like this as we get deeper into the winter 

[Allsnow]

[NJwx85]

What a beast on the GFS. Over 3” of rain in many spots.

[Allsnow]

Classic snow track but just to early in the season. 

[wdrag]

Good Thursday morning everyone,  (Dec 3),  Think it's soon going to be watch time for a HIGH Impact Multiple hazard event in our NYC forum. Topic initial discussion is a baseline start but I have to trend a little stronger confidence on probably more substantial impacts than initially framed. My main question now...track of the surface lows and a little uncertainty on the speed.

The 00z/3 cycle has trended northwest and GEFS is coming into much closer alignment with the EPS regarding the developing closed low 850MB-500MB.

 

Power and Snow: It seems to me a significant amount of power outages are in the offing for portions of the I84 corridor, especially high terrain, Saturday from a combination of wet snow exceeding 4" and north or northwest wind gusts of 35-45MPH. Meanwhile, for LI-southern CT, and possibly coastal NJ power outages similar or a bit more than 11/30,  would be from initially east-northeast wind gusts of 45-55 mph with a back side burst late Saturday. Wind gusts "may" reach ~65 MPH on eastern LI. That will be my max.   

Max snowfall in our area: northwest fringe along or north of I84 certainly can exceed half a foot-don't want to get too confident on this yet... we still have tracking disagreement.   Some models favor n CT/interior MA and others, I think more accurately, Poconos northeastward to the Litchfield Hills of nw CT- Berkshires.

NYC: Snow accumulations may occur at the tail end Saturday night or early Sunday to within 10 miles of NYC,  and even NYC could see a flurry or period of wet snow. 

 

Flooding: My guess based on MMEFS and the likelihood of 1.5-3" of qpf over the vulnerable NJ basins along and northwest of I95, that flooding will occur on all rivers and streams that occurred on 11/30-12/1 and add a few more rivers.  

 

Thunder could occur in our area during rapid intensification Saturday.  

Did we miss anything?  507A/3

 

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Thursday morning everyone,  (Dec 3),  Think it's soon going to be watch time for a HIGH Impact Multiple hazard event in our NYC forum. Topic initial discussion is a baseline start but I have to trend a little stronger confidence on probably more substantial impacts than initially framed. My main question now...track of the surface lows and a little uncertainty on the speed.

The 00z/3 cycle has trended northwest and GEFS is coming into much closer alignment with the EPS regarding the developing closed low 850MB-500MB.

 

Power and Snow: It seems to me a significant amount of power outages are in the offing for portions of the I84 corridor, especially high terrain, Saturday from a combination of wet snow exceeding 4" and north or northwest wind gusts of 35-45MPH. Meanwhile, for LI-southern CT, and possibly coastal NJ power outages similar or a bit more than 11/30,  would be from initially east-northeast wind gusts of 45-55 mph with a back side burst late Saturday. Wind gusts "may" reach ~65 MPH on eastern LI. That will be my max.   

Max snowfall in our area: northwest fringe along or north of I84 certainly can exceed half a foot-don't want to get too confident on this yet... we still have tracking disagreement.   Some models favor n CT/interior MA and others, I think more accurately, Poconos northeastward to the Litchfield Hills of nw CT- Berkshires.

NYC: Snow accumulations may occur at the tail end Saturday night or early Sunday to within 10 miles of NYC,  and even NYC could see a flurry or period of wet snow. 

 

Flooding: My guess based on MMEFS and the likelihood of 1.5-3" of qpf over the vulnerable NJ basins along and northwest of I95, that flooding will occur on all rivers and streams that occurred on 11/30-12/1 and add a few more rivers.  

 

Thunder could occur in our area during rapid intensification Saturday.  

Did we miss anything?  507A/3

 

@wdrag today should be an important tracking day to see how the models align. I could see flood watches, wind advisories (high wind watch??), and winter weather advisories issued for our region at some point depending on location along with advisories/watches for coastal hazards?? I agree, it looks like a fairly high impact storm.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

@wdrag today should be an important tracking day to see how the models align. I could see flood watches, wind advisories (high wind watch??), and winter weather advisories issued for our region at some point depending on location along with advisories/watches for coastal hazards?? I agree, it looks like a fairly high impact storm.

agreed...  still model tracking uncertainty. Example 06z RGEM a little further se than prior version.  My guess is where more certainty with WPC collaboration, some sort of issuance will occur late today... again consensus-collaboration.  I tend to push it...  NWS more conservative (except NHC- I like how they go about long lead time-my view only). 

[wdrag]

So...  I'll be looking for NAM-EC agreement going forward, with GGEM further nw than previous 00z cycle. IF not,  then I favored too far northwest-erroneously. 

[Allsnow]

One of the reasons this storm is trending snowier for interior areas is the 50/50 feature that was not expected earlier.  Instead of a ridge east of main it’s north of that area. 
 

The only reason this isn’t snow for the entire area is because the pna ridge is to flat. This is just another example of having bad luck in a small window of opportunity 

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

One of the reasons this storm is trending snowier for interior areas is the 50/50 feature that was not expected earlier.  Instead of a ridge east of main it’s north of that area. 
 

The only reason this isn’t snow for the entire area is because the pna ridge is to flat. This is just another example of having bad luck in a small window of opportunity 

The coast has no luck at all 

Enjoy the snow interior areas

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The coast has no luck at all 

Enjoy the snow interior areas

Yup, colder washout for us than the last storm but same deal-heavy rain for a while and wind. This time of year is tough for us regardless but lack of cold air is the real problem. Hopefully inland areas can get some snow. The best zone looks to be interior New England especially VT/NH. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good Thursday morning everyone,  (Dec 3),  Think it's soon going to be watch time for a HIGH Impact Multiple hazard event in our NYC forum. Topic initial discussion is a baseline start but I have to trend a little stronger confidence on probably more substantial impacts than initially framed. My main question now...track of the surface lows and a little uncertainty on the speed.

The 00z/3 cycle has trended northwest and GEFS is coming into much closer alignment with the EPS regarding the developing closed low 850MB-500MB.

 

Power and Snow: It seems to me a significant amount of power outages are in the offing for portions of the I84 corridor, especially high terrain, Saturday from a combination of wet snow exceeding 4" and north or northwest wind gusts of 35-45MPH. Meanwhile, for LI-southern CT, and possibly coastal NJ power outages similar or a bit more than 11/30,  would be from initially east-northeast wind gusts of 45-55 mph with a back side burst late Saturday. Wind gusts "may" reach ~65 MPH on eastern LI. That will be my max.   

Max snowfall in our area: northwest fringe along or north of I84 certainly can exceed half a foot-don't want to get too confident on this yet... we still have tracking disagreement.   Some models favor n CT/interior MA and others, I think more accurately, Poconos northeastward to the Litchfield Hills of nw CT- Berkshires.

NYC: Snow accumulations may occur at the tail end Saturday night or early Sunday to within 10 miles of NYC,  and even NYC could see a flurry or period of wet snow. 

 

Flooding: My guess based on MMEFS and the likelihood of 1.5-3" of qpf over the vulnerable NJ basins along and northwest of I95, that flooding will occur on all rivers and streams that occurred on 11/30-12/1 and add a few more rivers.  

 

Thunder could occur in our area during rapid intensification Saturday.  

Did we miss anything?  507A/3

 

funny thing is, Walt, that we still dont have an agreement on the models and the storm is 2 days away.  Back in the 80s and 90s we didn't have a good idea about these storms two to three days out either, so I wonder where things have really improved in the past 30 years.  Is this uncertainty due to the atmosphere just being so complex that even with the rapid improvement of technology that we still haven't caught up?

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Yup, colder washout for us than the last storm but same deal-heavy rain for a while and wind. This time of year is tough for us regardless but lack of cold air is the real problem. Hopefully inland areas can get some snow. The best zone looks to be interior New England especially VT/NH. 

All we are blocking with this set up is pac puke. Basically killing the snow potential 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The coast has no luck at all 

Enjoy the snow interior areas

it's not about luck though, this was never going to be a coastal snowstorm even with the perfect track.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not about luck though, this was never going to be a coastal snowstorm even with the perfect track.

I mean the tellies are good for a coastal snowstorm ( negative NAO, negative AO and positive PNA ). I hate giving up chances when things are starting to align.