bluewave Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6z Euro if it wasn’t posted yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: On a side note, this is my favorite type of storm. Overrunning well out ahead comes in Friday late afternoon. Then storm really cranks overnight into Saturday morning as low tracks from ACY to Cape Cod. Would be a perfect track for a crippling, long duration blizzard if the Northern piece was able to get out ahead a tad more. 12z GFS has 6"+ for Springfield and NW CT. We're not missing this by much. Let's get this track later in Dec and early Jan when the airmasses are better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This just shows the importance of a good PNA ridge out west for snow opportunities DT has a check list on his site for HECS/MECS type storms-this is one them-want the ridge axis over Idaho or somewhere like that. 50-50 low, banana high, etc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Let's get this track later in Dec and early Jan when the airmasses are better! and Jan into Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: It can be just fine for them if the upper low closes off and dynamics detonate overhead. Winds turn NNE and it’s all snow and heavy there. They had over 4” in the Oct storm, they can definitely do well now (not that it’s favored at this point). thats an interesting quandary, whats a better place to be, NE PA at 2000 ft where the best snows could be to my east, or the south shore of nassau county, where the best snows could be just to my north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Beginning to look like our New England friends will get the jackpot. I'll still take advisory snows, if they even happen. Better tracks will happen soon, this is still early enough into the season anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: thats an interesting quandary, whats a better place to be, NE PA at 2000 ft where the best snows could be to my east, or the south shore of nassau county, where the best snows could be just to my north? I'd rather NE PA since we still have a shot at some snow, but the best is lining up just east of our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, crossbowftw3 said: I'd rather NE PA since we still have a shot at some snow, but the best is lining up just east of our area. Yeah I'm more like east-central PA right now, one county north of Allentown, but the 2,000 ft elevation is sure going to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yeah I'm more like east-central PA right now, one county north of Allentown, but the 2,000 ft elevation is sure going to help. Yeah, look for elevations in a setup like this. Early season setup, track good but air mass is questionable. Cold air will get yanked down but increasing indication that storm will be winding up a little too late for anything too truly meaningful to occur this far west. If I'm in a New England ski resort I'm licking my chops for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Euro 980’s over the Bm. Sne gets whacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro 980’s over the Bm. Sne gets whacked a foot for Worcester and inland SNE east of I-91. Not much for Boston or other coastal spots. Sharp cut off of QPF N and W areas.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 We got maps? Edit: oops, right above me. Threat might be dead for us now, unfortunate. Still got plenty more chances this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro 980’s over the Bm. Sne gets whacked Its despressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its despressing Give me one or two of these tracks later in winter and we'll all be happy.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: a foot for Worcester and inland SNE east of I-91. Not much for Boston or other coastal spots. Sharp cut off of QPF N and W areas.... Trending towards a situation where Boston gets slammed at the end as the low pulls away. Another all too frequent too-late developer. The only chance we have down here is a strong CCB that can overcome the awful airmass for a few hours. Couldn’t care less about another windy rain event that will be even lousier due to it being a cold rain and watching people 100 miles away get crushed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: Trending towards a situation where Boston gets slammed at the end as the low pulls away. The only chance we have down here is a strong CCB that can overcome the awful airmass for a few hours. Couldn’t care less about another windy rain event that will be even lousier due to it being a cold rain and watching people 100 miles away get crushed. It's a pretty treacherous position for Boston. Gotta watch and see how this evolves Saturday, one more wobble and they'll get whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Give me one or two of these tracks later in winter and we'll all be happy.... We've had a few the past few years at the peak of winter, it just hasn't worked out. Alot of 'surface reflectivity not matching the upper levels' and 'precip field is catching up to the changes aloft' that never manifested. OTOH, during our feast years I remember a number of coastal huggers bombing off and producing solid snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Give me one or two of these tracks later in winter and we'll all be happy.... Not if we get Niña climo February lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, romba said: We've had a few the past few years at the peak of winter, it just hasn't worked out. Alot of 'surface reflectivity not matching the upper levels' and 'precip field is catching up to the changes aloft' that never manifested. OTOH, during our feast years I remember a number of coastal huggers bombing off and producing solid snow for the coast. I'll never forget Pi Day. Produced almost as much snow from one storm as I got all of last Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: It's a pretty treacherous position for Boston. Gotta watch and see how this evolves Saturday, one more wobble and they'll get whacked. I guess we should note it’s about the 1 year anniversary of the last miserable windy cold rain event here where we watched I-90 get crushed. Can’t go too long without those. Joys of our climate. Note-many of us including me did end up with a couple inches at the end from the lingering CCB. Made up 1/3 of all the snow we got last “winter”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not if we get Niña climo February lol With as strong as this Nina is, Dec and maybe early Jan are our real shot at winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I guess we should note it’s about the 1 year anniversary of the last miserable windy cold rain event here where we watched I-90 get crushed. Can’t go too long without those. Joys of our climate. Even here in Sullivan we got relatively screwed anyway. 7" is still 7" but the preceeding WAA Ice/Snow made it hell to clear away. Forever jealous of Albany's 22 inches from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 So far it's snowed west, south, and north of us this year, and soon to be east of us. Here it's just Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: With as strong as this Nina is, Dec and maybe early Jan are our real shot at winter. The last few years have been oddball combos of Niño and Niña-like features. This year we get the record warmth in November like the November 2015 super El Niño. Then a Niño-like +PNA to start December with a strong STJ. We finally get something resembling a BM track but with a lack of cold. I think the +PNA ridge was just too flat with Pacific air underneath instead of Arctic. This would have been a year when a cold November ahead of the storm could have worked out for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The last few years have been oddball combos of Niño and Niña-like features. This year we get the record warmth in November like the November 2015 super El Niño. Then a Niño-like +PNA to start December with a strong STJ. We finally get something resembling a BM track but with a lack of cold. I think the +PNA ridge was just too flat with Pacific air underneath instead of Arctic. This would have been a year when a cold November ahead of the storm could have worked out for us. Yep, +pna was to west to East. We need to have had it more poleward. The rest of the ingredients are there, unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep, +pna was to west to East. We need to have had it more poleward. The rest of the ingredients are there, unfortunately. Yeah, you can see the more poleward +PNA on the NYC biggest early December snowstorm composite since 2000. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Yeah, you can see the more poleward +PNA on the NYC biggest early December snowstorm composite since 2000. I do agree, it’s a great point by you, any airmass other then we had prior to this system probably would have made things more interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 54 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: So far it's snowed west, south, and north of us this year, and soon to be east of us. Here it's just Did you not see anything in the late October event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Every weenie will have his or her day here eventually and if not this year, then the next. The winter season just started and hopefully we all get pasted soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Did you not see anything in the late October event? I forgot about that but it was only a dusting to half inch by me. I know you guys got a little more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now