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December Banter 2020

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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40westwx
40westwx

This will go down as the worst winter storm ever for me... I say this with a heavy heart.. earlier today my son took our Great Dane out to play in the snow... as he was galloping through the snow he c

nw baltimore wx
nw baltimore wx

My gf just bought me Radar Scope for Christmas. She doesn’t know it yet, but this is what happens when you leave your credit card lying around. 

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

‘‘Twas the night before Christmas and all across the net, Ji was trolling cause the latest GFS was nothing but wet.  Meanwhile the snow weenies readied for bed, hoping soon their winter dreams would

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40westwx

40westwx

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

B121BF69-C2A7-4C95-AC98-F4104743CDE3.thumb.jpeg.be6a2a26ced81b0021eabb69e5822aa6.jpeg
 

Very important to mention the data you cited does not include any covid data.  That is our mortality rate excluding covid deaths. 

Good point.. it honestly must have been very hard for them to "subtract out" the covid deaths.. given that death public death certificate data from cdc includes all deaths. 

To exclude that would be one heck of a project.

Anyway, I did the calculation for them and it worked out to be 9.09.. source  is here https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/flu7/GetPhase07InitApp?appVersion=Public .. I can share my source code for the calculation if you like.. so I guess we saw somewhat of an uptick in mortality this year.. historically we were at about 9.5 has a high watermark in the 60s and then it declined to 8.0..then it rose to 8.8 over the last couple of years.. then a little more in the last year. 

This past year could have been covid and it could have been collateral lockdown damage.. who knows.. but the fact that we are even having that debate is really enlightening.. if the range is 8.0 to 9.5 and we are in the middle of the greatest public health crisis of our life time and we are well within the goal posts.. It makes you question what is actually going on?

In reality I think it is the fact that hospital administrations completely botched the initial response to the corona virus based on ignorance and fear.. What do you expect is gonna happen when your first line of defense is to put someone in an induced coma and on a breathing tube.. it is really sad and I hope to see at a minimum punitive litigation as a response to this...


Really interesting finding is that heart disease deaths are way way down.. I guess thats a #2020 thing.  It looks like we found the cure for heart disease!

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40westwx

40westwx

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Posted

Yesterday I called Wisp to see if they were opening next weekend and I got a young snow lover on the phone... I asked her how they were looking up there, how it has been for the last couple of winters... she was really depressed.. she told me that they only got 40 inches of snow last year.  She said that they used to get 200 inches per year and it is never coming back like it used to. That actually worried me a little bit. not because I thought she was somehow right but that people actually think that.. 

So I told her a story.. in 1992, me, my mom and my grandmother toured around ocean city to shop for the family condo that we still have today. I remember looking out over the beach from the balcony and the agent saying.. "you know in 30 years all of this might be under water"..  I told the girl over the phone that every year since then I go down to the beach and remember that conversation and take a mental note as to where the water is..

And go figure.. the water comes up to the same spot it did the year before.  I told her.. you will get your 200 inch year.. you will get it very soon.. maybe this year who knows..

I told her to come join us here! we talked for about 15 min.. she is real real snow lover!

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snowfan

snowfan

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Posted
21 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I've given up on a White Christmas in DC. My wife was gracious enough to let me plan a trip to Vermont for our Christmas vacation breaking the tradition to head to Florida or Louisiana. Bless her heart. 

Seeing how 2020 has been going watch it rain in Vermont while DC gets 6 inches. lol 

Rest of the year looks like cutter city, so wouldn't be a shock to see it rain in vt.

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jaydreb

jaydreb

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4 hours ago, 40westwx said:

Yesterday I called Wisp to see if they were opening next weekend and I got a young snow lover on the phone... I asked her how they were looking up there, how it has been for the last couple of winters... she was really depressed.. she told me that they only got 40 inches of snow last year.  She said that they used to get 200 inches per year and it is never coming back like it used to. That actually worried me a little bit. not because I thought she was somehow right but that people actually think that.. 

So I told her a story.. in 1992, me, my mom and my grandmother toured around ocean city to shop for the family condo that we still have today. I remember looking out over the beach from the balcony and the agent saying.. "you know in 30 years all of this might be under water"..  I told the girl over the phone that every year since then I go down to the beach and remember that conversation and take a mental note as to where the water is..

And go figure.. the water comes up to the same spot it did the year before.  I told her.. you will get your 200 inch year.. you will get it very soon.. maybe this year who knows..

I told her to come join us here! we talked for about 15 min.. she is real real snow lover!

What did she say about when they are opening?

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Posted

@40westwx

couple clarifications.  

1. The US population increased by about 957,000 in 2019 not 6 million.  Maybe you saw 6% which is the avg rate increase over the last 20 years and misinterpreted that.  But the rate has been dropping steadily in recent years. 

2. a relatively small change in the mortality % is really significant when applied to 329 million people!  Your talking about hundreds of thousands of people with just a fraction of a % change. 
 

3. deaths from heart disease are up not down.  
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-the-heart-attack-death-rate-has-doubled-during-covid-19


https://www.heart.org/en/news/2020/07/10/more-people-are-dying-during-the-pandemic-and-not-just-from-covid-19


4.  One number in isolation doesn’t give a clear picture when dealing with an issue that has multiple variables. You need to control for all the variables. This could work either way. Deaths from things like heart disease have gone up due to people in some cases being reluctant to get treatment. But there is evidence some other death rates have gone down. Even though the % of accidents that are fatal has gone up die to wreck less driving on less crowded roads because the sheer volume of accidents is so down the overall mortality decreases. There are various other factors needed to be calculated. That could end up pushing the conclusion you infer in either direction but it can’t be known until it is done.  I’ll let the expert statisticians who are paid to do that...do it before I draw conclusions. 
 

 

 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@40westwx

couple clarifications.  

1. The US population increased by about 957,000 in 2019 not 6 million.  Maybe you saw 6% which is the avg rate increase over the last 20 years and misinterpreted that.  But the rate has been dropping steadily in recent years. 

2. a relatively small change in the mortality % is really significant when applied to 329 million people!  Your talking about hundreds of thousands of people with just a fraction of a % change. 
 

3. deaths from heart disease are up not down.  
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-the-heart-attack-death-rate-has-doubled-during-covid-19


https://www.heart.org/en/news/2020/07/10/more-people-are-dying-during-the-pandemic-and-not-just-from-covid-19


4.  One number in isolation doesn’t give a clear picture when dealing with an issue that has multiple variables. You need to control for all the variables. This could work either way. Deaths from things like heart disease have gone up due to people in some cases being reluctant to get treatment. But there is evidence some other death rates have gone down. Even though the % of accidents that are fatal has gone up die to wreck less driving on less crowded roads because the sheer volume of accidents is so down the overall mortality decreases. There are various other factors needed to be calculated. That could end up pushing the conclusion you infer in either direction but it can’t be known until it is done.  I’ll let the expert statisticians who are paid to do that...do it before I draw conclusions. 
 

 

 

Perhaps it’s time for the imposition of controls on what people eat, how much they exercise? Then we can attack the alcohol problems and the resulting deaths and damage that it causes. Once we get lathered up we can put governors on cars to help cut down on traffic accidents.

Just saying ... 

For the record, I’m all in for the masks. It protects freedom. When you open that door on shuttering business and lockdowns ... I’m ready to fight.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Perhaps it’s time for the imposition of controls on what people eat, how much they exercise? Then we can attack the alcohol problems and the resulting deaths and damage that it causes. Once we get lathered up we can put governors on cars to help cut down on traffic accidents.

Just saying ... 

For the record, I’m all in for the masks. It protects freedom. When you open that door on shuttering business and lockdowns ... I’m ready to fight.

I’m not touching policy.  I don’t want to start a political fight!  I was simply fact checking some statistical claims he made.  I wasn’t advocating for or against anything you just said. Just didn’t want some false information floating around. People are free to draw whatever conclusions they want from the statistics...but the stats should be accurate at least. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m not touching policy.  I don’t want to start a political fight!  I was simply fact checking some statistical claims he made.  I wasn’t advocating for or against anything you just said. Just didn’t want some false information floating around. People are free to draw whatever conclusions they want from the statistics...but the stats should be accurate at least. 

I understand. No worries here.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Posted
33 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Mostly correct but not having a 30.40 baro sitting over top of it is a factor if it was there

Frel free to express your own comments and forecasting beliefs, you have not been appointed to dispute mine 

Do you understand this is a discussion board. It’s not a bulletin board. People are free to respond to other posts. I wasn’t being hostile to you in that post. I was simply explaining that surface pressure wasn’t really the problem here imo. You can refute that if you want. I won’t take offense. That’s how a discussion works. But you seem to be upset whenever someone disagrees with you and resent that they posted a response unless it was to agree. 
 

I admit I was hostile towards you wrt your NWP comments. That’s because I feel your accusations are unwarranted and insulting to the people here who work in NWP. But that dispute doesn’t have to spill over into every other interaction we have on this board. I was simply adding my interpretation to this setup to your comment. It wasn’t meant to start a fight. 

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nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

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Nice day here. Froze my butt off on a bike ride around noon and then spent the afternoon brewing the first half of my blackberry and cranberry sour. I’ll let it sour for the next three days and finish brewing on Wednesday. I still have to purée the cranberries and make a starter for the yeast. But that’s not work with Ichabod’s Pumpkin Stout on tap. 
 

And what time is the snow starting here tomorrow?

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