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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There is now consensus among the ensembles that the TPV moves into AK (+EPO) come next weekend. It’s probably lights out for awhile, that’s a stable pattern, the vortex is not going to be in a big rush to move out

We have a opportunity between the 13-20th. The eps snow mean was pretty high due that timeframe. After that is when it will get ugly 

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We have a opportunity between the 13-20th. The eps snow mean was pretty high due that timeframe. After that is when it will get ugly 

Possibly....you definitely don’t want December to be a dud month in a La Niña winter. It would be a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter, historically speaking, especially given the much warmer than normal November

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Just now, snowman19 said:

Possibly....you definitely don’t want December to be a dud month in a La Niña winter. It would be a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter, historically speaking, especially given the much warmer than normal November

The eps and geps have a big -nao after the 18th that keeps the pattern serviceable. Is that true? Probably not lol. Only positive I see is that fact that the TPV remains in Canada/Ak, it will keep cold in Canada. If that area starts to go above normal then yeah it would be close the shades time 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would probably need the lead wave around the 12th to come out weaker so the wave around the 15th doesn’t get suppressed. That may be the best chance that NYC gets for some measurable snowfall this month. We’ll see....

CFD66982-7EA0-4C4E-A220-921195C28F88.thumb.png.f93e0b1dac871a8aece50860c5fa3abc.png

7DA3C3F6-F010-470C-ADFD-F77ECD860437.thumb.png.31ab3e01edbd925098ac0591e5196a3e.png

 

12z cmc at 240

5fcbb7ea24e91.png

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Except it wasn't that close. Temps were in the low 40s all night. It's not like it was mid 30s and rain. 

Thank you! Lot of wishcasting on here. my temp actually climbed over last hour. wet flakes were just that, not a region wide transition as the storm exited. Temps are still in the 40s.

Exactly as predicted all week

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3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

In conjecture with this, some crazy impressive analogs have been tossed around, which include both super outbreak years, and 2008 (Super Tuesday, early January Outbreak being among most notable). Not to say events of those magnitudes occur but overall it paints a very ugly picture 

this is exactly why I'm gungho on geo-engineering remember how awful 2011 was, we could save so many lives if we prevented this kind of weather occurring in the first place by being able to control ENSO and other factors.  Maybe in a few decades we'll have the tech to do it.

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This would have been a good opportunity if we had a cold November like the last few years. But there was no cold around for this storm following the warmest November on record. We had more cold to start last December so NYC was able to at least pick up 1.6”.  But this will be the 2nd December in a row that  areas far enough north get an impressive first week of December snow. 

I dont remember any historic storm last December lol- who was it historic for, Vermont?

 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont remember any historic storm last December lol- who was it historic for, Vermont?

 

https://www.weather.gov/aly/1-3Dec2019Snow

Overview

A major winter storm impacted eastern New York and western New England December 1-3, 2019. Snowfall began during the late morning and early afternoon of the 1st ahead of a weakening low pressure system approaching from the western Great Lakes. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour occurred from the afternoon into the evening, with the heaviest along the I-90 corridor. As the primary low pressure system weakened, it transferred its energy to a coastal low, which strengthened as it remained nearly stationary for much of the 2nd. This allowed snow to continue to accumulate throughout the day. As the low finally pulled away late on the 2nd into the early morning hours of the 3rd, one final heavy snow band crossed the area before the snow finally pulled out prior to daybreak on the 3rd.

Storm total snowfall amounts were heaviest in the central Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, northeastern Catskills, Capital District, southern Vermont, and the Berkshires, where totals of 18-28" were common. The 22.6" recorded at Albany International Airport made this the 8th largest snowstorm on record, the 4th largest December storm, and the largest since the March 1993 superstorm. It snowed for 39 hours and 14 minutes consecutively. Many schools were closed for two consecutive days, and numerous flights were delayed or cancelled. The governor declared a state of emergency for several of the hard-hit counties, and deployed the National Guard to assist in cleanup efforts. Speed restrictions were also placed on area interstate highways. Amounts of 8-18" were common elsewhere, except for southern portions of Dutchess and Litchfield Counties due to warmer temperatures and mixed precipitation, and northern portions of Herkimer, Hamilton, Warren, and Washington Counties which were on the fringe of the heavier precipitation.

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52 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Thank you! Lot of wishcasting on here. my temp actually climbed over last hour. wet flakes were just that, not a region wide transition as the storm exited. Temps are still in the 40s.

Exactly as predicted all week

Who's wishcasting besides the 2 Tonys?

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