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bluewave

December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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25 minutes ago, uncle W said:

after 1995-96 the winter of 1996-97 felt the worse for me...the following year was the worst or one of them...98-99 was very bad too...

I ignored winter after 1995-96 I knew it could never get any better so I just quit paying attention to the weather, I dont even remember what those winters were like.  It's easier to have a very snowy winter and then not have another one for a few years than to never have experienced it (which is what happened for me in the 80s and early 90s) and always wonder what one would be like....

 

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6 minutes ago, romba said:

True, but a bit hyperbolic. 48 hours you tend to get a solid picture of even the more complex systems. At 72 hrs most models are close enough to each other to know a real risk or not. But anything more than that is just popcorn fodder.

whats the purpose of issuing 14 day forecasts anyway, all funds should be used to make 5 day forecasts as good as can be and just dont spend any money beyond that.  Allocate funds to where better results are possible, not in fantasy land.

 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The only thing consistent is that warmth will always win out. 

2000-2018 will be the best snow period we'll ever experience and it's all downhill from there. 

I cant wait until some mad scientist develops climate engineering technology and sends us into the next ice age.

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58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I cant wait until some mad scientist develops climate engineering technology and sends us into the next ice age.

JB’s already working on it. If success comes Forky will not be a happy Met. As always .....

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

the lack of 30 inch snowfall winters from 1978-79 through 1992-93 is unmatched in the recorded history of NYC

 

Same story up this way. Only 1981-82, 1984-85 and 1992-93 were above average and the rest were ratters. 80's winters were cold though. Maybe not as a whole winter but there was a lot of cold months. 

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I’m not going to turn a blind eye to it! The end of the ensembles are look ugly. The vortex is moving into Ak and pac flow starts enveloping the country 
 

We still have a opportunity before that but as of now that’s where we Stand

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I’m not going to turn a blind eye to it! The end of the ensembles are look ugly. The vortex is moving into Ak and pac flow starts enveloping the country 
 

We still have a opportunity before that but as of now that’s where we Stand

I’m sure they will be changeable, but as someone said, until we get evidence close in it is a safer bet to bet on milder. Appreciate your posts and look forward to updates. 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

And next weekend, 12-13th, we probably make a run at 60 degrees as the pac reshuffles 

what is  wrong with a mild spell following a chilly week? i am quite enjoying the new reality of the winter season...

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I’m not going to turn a blind eye to it! The end of the ensembles are look ugly. The vortex is moving into Ak and pac flow starts enveloping the country 
 

We still have a opportunity before that but as of now that’s where we Stand

Yeah, it looks like more of a MJO 4 pattern as the AAM and PNA falls. So we get a Niño-like to Niña-like  progression this month. Something for all the different ENSO fans.

2C839F65-7C10-45B8-B8B6-D66E0CB2D3B0.png.48f2741b622063fc842b569fe6a1722a.png
D709028E-059E-4728-AE5A-C26375E8EC57.thumb.png.19d5f3077a380b0f4dca0fb9c21e6fbd.png

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What happened to the good pattern that people said that was going to occur ???

Who said that?    Never looked all that great with the lack of any arctic air....

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Weeklies have the cold shot and snow potential December 13-20th. It then goes full on Niña with cold west/warm East. Around January 15th (la la la land) it has -nao, -epo, and cold moving east. Looks like a niño pattern in the middle of January 

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15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What happened to the good pattern that people said that was going to occur ???

We will have a shot a something the week of the 13th. The pattern looks to get more hostile/Niña like by the 20th

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19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What happened to the good pattern that people said that was going to occur ???

Because long range forecasting is so inaccurate.  Follow models up to 7 days and stay off social media, you might keep your sanity .Or move to a snowy climate ..It would be nice to have snow for the holidays ,but that never happens, so that's life and global warming .Plus you have no control at all.

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We will have a shot a something the week of the 13th. The pattern looks to get more hostile/Niña like by the 20th

There have been La Nina patterns that do produce snow here, however you need NAO to go negative..If that's not happening your out of luck

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GFS:(OP)      Dec. 10-17 is averaging +9, that is in degrees boys----not inches!        It will probably be just +3 in reality, Really!

I routinely cut the OP by 5 degrees for the first 8 day average.         More beyond that,  less for shorter periods of course.

PROBABILITY OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS based on the current 30-Year-Normal.     This is Not the prediction for any particular winter.          For NYC we will probably be working up or down from a raw chance of about 20%.         Chicago starts at 50/50.    Minneapolis starts at 80% etc.:

white-xmas-hist-prob-noaa2.jpg?crop=16:9

 

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26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Who said that?    Never looked all that great with the lack of any arctic air....

Have you been in the same forum over the last week? Guys have been going on and on over the great look and great pattern.

I kept pointing out that the first week of December was getting warmer and warmer in the midst of all the cold and snow talk.

50 and rain on Monday. 50 and rain this weekend. 50 and rain next weekend. Not even close

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10 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Have you been in the same forum over the last week? Guys have been going on and on over the great look and great pattern.

I kept pointing out that the first week of December was getting warmer and warmer in the midst of all the cold and snow talk.

50 and rain on Monday. 50 and rain this weekend. 50 and rain next weekend. Not even close

Weenies on a forum are different than mets.   I didn't see many mets (even JB) barking about a great pattern.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Weenies on a forum are different than mets.   I didn't see many mets (even JB) barking about a great pattern.

Allsnow is a weenie ? Even the SNE meteorologists were  giddy about the upcoming pattern.

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Allsnow is a weenie ? Even the SNE meteorologists were  giddy about the upcoming pattern.

there's a misconcception here about "a great pattern" and a window of opportunity.     Let's hope that window produces something before we lock into a torch La Nina pattern come Jan.  And the weather in Central and Northern New England is alot different than NYC area.   Sure they might have been excited but that's a completely different climo than us.

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

there's a misconcception here about "a great pattern" and a window of opportunity.     Let's hope that window produces something before we lock into a torch La Nina pattern come Jan.  And the weather in Central and Northern New England is alot different than NYC area.   Sure they might have been excited but that's a completely different climo than us.

great points

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38 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

GFS:      Dec. 10-17 is averaging +9, that is in degrees boys----not inches!        It will probably be just +3 in reality, Really!

Is that from the op run? The GEFS are +3. A lot of that is from the warm up next weekend as the pac reshuffles.

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

there's a misconcception here about "a great pattern" and a window of opportunity.     Let's hope that window produces something before we lock into a torch La Nina pattern come Jan.  And the weather in Central and Northern New England is alot different than NYC area.   Sure they might have been excited but that's a completely different climo than us.

I remember saying after the 10th things will get better. It’s up in the air on how long that lasts. As of now, it looks like Niña pattern will return towards the 20th. 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

I remember saying after the 10th things will get better. It’s up in the air on how long that lasts. As of now, it looks like Niña pattern will return towards the 20th. 

yeah, I know-that's what I would call a window of opportunity.  A good or event great  pattern would be something that would last a month or maybe 6 weeks.    If you go back to the famous winter of 10-11, we had a great pattern that lasted about 5-6 weeks and the goods were delivered bigly!

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Not a met - but why does everyone fall for the long-term forecasts every year? It's a wash, rinse, repeat every single season. I get the vague trends - but after seven days, things just fall off a cliff and they *seem* to change on a whim.

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I think it’s an honest mistake that some people make when the see the New England forum buzzing about snow potential. They are a much different climate zone for snow than our area is. The last 2 snowfall seasons were some of the best  on record for Northern New England. Several of our lowest snowfall seasons were  their highest.

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall 
Missing Count
1 2007-2008 197.8 0
2 1954-1955 181.1 0
3 2018-2019 165.4 0
4 1981-1982 159.8 0
5 1972-1973 153.0 0
6 2019-2020 151.9 0
7 1968-1969 151.6 1
8 2013-2014 150.7 0
9 1962-1963 147.5 0
10 1976-1977 145.9 0

I remember during a Mash holiday show Hawkeye Pierce talking about a white Christmas in his home town of Crabapple Cove Maine. He said we have a white Christmas from Halloween on...... As always ...

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was one of my favorite shows of all time. I actually got  to meet Jamie Farr at a NYC autograph signing he was doing. New England is a very pretty part of the country. Some of the snow lovers in our forum  would be happy relocating there if the opportunity arises for them. With the climate warming at such a rapid clip, perhaps the future will feature a reverse migration from the sunbelt to the snowbelt. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cities-future-usa/future-cool-minnesota-city-ponders-new-boom-as-a-climate-migrant-destination-idUSKBN1WV1DS

Currier And Ives will always be alive their. Phineas from the M A forum acquired a beautiful mountainside place with a view of the white or presidential Mts. Unless Liberty Bells mad scientist is successful, I’m afraid 3 digit cold season snow totals will be a fleeting memory for them as two digit totals will be for us. As always ...

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