PhineasC Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Never really had to deal with a long-term snowpack, but I am hoping that the 1" or so of rain I get in the mid/upper 30s soaks into my 10 inches of snow OTG and then freezes solid. So maybe end up with 4-5 inches of glacial substrate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Lost in all the Grinch is the 2 small snow events Sunday night and again Tuesday. 1-3” certainly in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 GFS is definitely a shorter torch. Still pretty bad but at least the front is already through by 12z Xmas. Ggem is horrific. Ukie is actually getting closer to pretty interesting. It’s pretty positively tilted for longer before going negative and then develops a wave along the front...another few miles and its snow Xmas morning for a lot of New England ...prob already good enough for snow in M VT that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 hours ago, dendrite said: Check that. Decent temp drop at sunrise now... -1°. There’s something to these spikes down in temp at sunrise here. I wonder if the rising sun warms the top of the trees and strengthens the inversion briefly until the solar heating reaches the surface. -5 with about 16-17”in the open fields. Went to downtown CON this morning. Lots of snow there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Second-best model! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I don’t think I’ve had this much snow otg in the 5 years I’ve lived in this house. I’ve had one slightly larger storm but no way this much snow 2 days later.... Could be a fun winter. Squirrels were fat too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Happens all the time Yup. At least a couple times a winter. The good rainers are when the top of MWN is like 47F while the Gulf Coast is 18F, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 20 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Second-best model! It’s going to prove it this time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Coastal storm Dec 28 Yup ..it's pretty clear this is the next major player/signal to watch for ... roughtly 26th thru NYE ... Much too early to thread it out there, but this signal has been pretty obvious as a PNA rise, ... "pulsed" west base NAO tandem for about 4 of 5 days frankly. I suppose in the conceptual sense, the lakes cutter and warm sector intrusion has the climate history of preceding the NAO ... transient or more ...as a leading phenomenon to the mode transition toward negative...then if the PNA does roll up underneath ... usually eastern N/A's mid latitudes wind up in business for cold storminess - Back in the day, I would have started a thread for this given the signal as is.. .but, it seems there is a general culture to wait things out more - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Is Monday pm creeping closer again for eastern areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 In fact ... I can see the nuanced 'hints' in the GEFs individual members, ... and even the operational runs ( like the GGEM) that the period between Boxing day and NYE has a subsume characteristics about it... That's basically when the lower Ferral latitudes and the upper Hadley latitudes are moving cyclonically relative to one another ... That means, the southern stream ejecting features along ...and the N stream is either tending to or outrightly in retrograde. That's precarious for phasing ... The western ends of or in whole, SPV fragments dangling by and by ...in wait, and these lower latitude or intermediate ( doesn't have to be "S sream" per say even) stream disturbances "entice" them to crash south... But they are mechanical juggernauts and when they due they usurp and devour the S wave's dynamics ...using said wave's moisture input and ... BOOM!! There are countless analogs to describe this sort of phase - I'm surprised there isn't phase labels for that matter. Like, we have "Miller A" and "Miller B" and hypothetical M C's and D's therein... There should like American Weather Forums A and 'Forum B, phase types.. lol. Because you can have open wave, two stream phasing that is different than the classic "Cleveland Super Bomb", or "Feb 1978" - that year was an absolutely fantastic year for subsume type phasing... The 12z GGEM is missing the southern component to the above model, else it would be a classic... where's as the GFS seems to conserve the speed of the flow by staggering an N stream backside insert at an usual trajectory .. Obviously, these are all subject and highly likely to change...just that when the background canvas looks vulnerable, the operational concept darts tend to hit more targets - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 hours ago, DavisStraight said: Didn't snowmaggedon suck for us? Lol, be worried about rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I am not saying that above post/annotation effort is about to redux... but, I am seeing that same relative cyclonic motion between 60-70 N vs 35 N ... at super synoptic scales - and that is presage to vulnerability for this sort of subsuming you see in that idealized example ...about a close to perfect as a fluid medium can ever achieve - jesus... I lived thru that ..by the way, over SW lower Michigan ... no, I've never seen anything like that since - sorry... I've lived out here in snow storm conceit Kingdom of legend and gods for over 30 years now and have never seen anything compares to that physical expression that resulted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Any time that Tip is not talking about destructive wave interference, take notice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Any time that Tip is not talking about destructive wave interference, take notice Totally. I think this is the most invested I can recall him being!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 What are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Euro is digging the southern stream way into the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What are we talking about? after christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Somehow I doubt that will lock in way early like this cutter is doing... Never forget the 10 to 1 cutter/coastal rule we mentioned yesterday. Coastal storms have 100 mile window of good snow potential cutters have 1000+ mile window for warm rain potential. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What are we talking about? Read Tips post near bottom of previous page. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, cut said: Read Tips post near bottom of previous page. I can’t. I need cliff Notes. Anyways yeah period after Christmas should be watched. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Worst case scenario in Euro for grinch storm. 60F and downpours on Xmas. Slow moving too so that would be a total pack wipeout. Hopefully it’s wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Thought the northern stream could run out ahead of it longer, but it eventually decides to dive in and phase anyway. Delayed but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro is digging the southern stream way into the southwest. Yeah it nearly buried it this run but didn’t quite do it and it still managed a phase. I’m hoping it actually gets trapped in the southwest eventually on the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 An all day assault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Worst case scenario in Euro for grinch storm. 60F and downpours on Xmas. Slow moving too so that would be a total pack wipeout. Hopefully it’s wrong. kept the wind a bit offshore though, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it nearly buried it this run but didn’t quite do it and it still managed a phase. I’m hoping it actually gets trapped in the southwest eventually on the next few runs. that "hesitation" you and Bri dawg noted though ...could be a hint at where this is heading... in simplest terms: yes a full phased multi- stream latitude screw job can happen - but it isn't favored given the longer termed hemispheric behavior. which ..considering the latter - I don't think is endemic to just some present pattern. no way - that's been doing that progressive shit for decade or more ...regardless of index mode, land air or sea or in aggregate therein, too - but, anomalies relative to anomalies nest at times.. we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 What a disgusting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Thought the northern stream could run out ahead of it longer, but it eventually decides to dive in and phase anyway. Delayed but not denied. When you said that I was hoping it was going to join the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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